Original article from drinkfive.com

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s finally time for the fantasy playoffs. Hopefully you’ve survived this far and have a meaningful matchup this week, or even better a bye into week 15. The end of the fantasy regular season brought some big-time performances from the rookie crop. Henry Ruggs helped the Raiders avoid being the first team to fall to the Jets this season. Jonathan Taylor had a long touchdown catch where he was untouched, and then racked up 73 fourth quarter rushing yards to help the Colts salt the game away. We also saw Brandon Aiyuk put up a huge game on Monday night, and JK Dobbins follow suit on Tuesday. Jalen Hurts took over as the new QB in Philly, and Justin Jefferson found the end zone for the third straight week. It wasn’t all sunshine and roses for the rookie class though. Justin Herbert had the worst game of his young career in a shutout loss to New England. Standout running back Antonio Gibson left early on Monday with turf toe and will be out in week 14, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire was active on Sunday night, but was just the emergency back and didn’t play a single snap. It was a true nightmare scenario for people who played either of those backs. Which rookies will help you and which will hurt you in week 14? Let’s take a look and find out…

(Notes: All scoring and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Players under same header at same position are listed in the order I would play them in this week.)

Rookies to Start:

QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 14: vs. Atl.): Herbert had a disastrous game last week against the Patriots. It was the first time all year he was held without a touchdown, the first time all year he was held below a 58% completion percentage (he completed 49%), and just the 2nd time he’s thrown multiple interceptions in a game. If you made the playoffs with Herbert as your QB in spite of that performance, you shouldn’t be afraid to fire him back up this week. Throw away the tape from last week and trust that he will bounce back against the defense that allows the most QB fantasy points per game. Even including last week’s game, Herbert is averaging nearly 22 fantasy points per game and is the QB8 for the season. There should be plenty of volume for both offenses in this game, as both teams rank in the top-5 in the league in pace (fewest seconds per play run). I’d go into Sunday with confidence that Herbert will deliver 20+ points this week or at least close to it.

RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 14: vs. Ten.): Robinson has proven that he is start-worthy every single week. He’s the RB4 on the year, has 70+ scrimmage yards in all but 1 game this season, and 10+ fantasy points in all but 2 games. He gets to face the defense allowing the 7th-most RB points per game, a defense he roughed up for 19.5 points in week 2. You’ve likely gotten to this point because of James Robinson. You’ve got to continue to trust him in the playoffs if you have him.

RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 14: @LV): If you trusted Jonathan Taylor last week you were handsomely rewarded with a 21-point performance, but his usage early in the game was still concerning. Taylor finished the game the highest snap share of the Colts’ backs (48%), but entering the 4th quarter he had just 3 rushing attempts and 2 receptions. He was lucky enough that the Texans forgot to defend him on one of the receptions and he strolled 39 yards for a touchdown, but he didn’t see the ball much aside from that catch until the last quarter. He was dominant in the 4th, piling up 70 rushing yards on 10 carries, but without that we would be wondering if he was back in the doghouse. I’m confident that there is no way the Colts’ coaching staff could watch that 4th quarter and then go right back to the same usage pattern against another bad run defense this week. Taylor should be involved early and often in Vegas. The Raiders rank 31st in the league in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, and allow the 4th-most RB points per game. Despite the questionable usage, Taylor has seen 35 rushing attempts and 7 receptions in his last 2 games. His floor makes him a flex play this week, but I think this is more likely to be a ceiling week. He has high RB1 upside this week. He could be a steal at his $5,800 price tag on DraftKings.

RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 14: vs. GB): Swift sounds likely to play this week, and if he does he should probably be in your lineup. There is a risk that he won’t play the kind of snap share he was seeing before his concussion, but the Packers allow the 3rd-most RB points per game and a large chunk of that comes from receiving production. Green Bay has allowed the 2nd-most RB receiving yards per game and the 8th-most RB receptions. Swift is by far the best receiving back on the Lions’ roster. Game script should be negative for Detroit, so they’re likely to be throwing. The only teams to not get a running back to 12+ fantasy points against the Packers were the Lions in week 3 (Swift only played 6 snaps) and the Eagles’ broken offense last week. Check to make sure he’s active Sunday, but if he plays, Swift will likely finish as at least an RB2.

WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 14: @TB): In recent weeks it appears Jefferson has taken the next step and has gone from a volatile WR2 with some huge blowup games to a consistent weekly WR1. He’s now strung together 4 consecutive 15+ point games (only 2 games with 15+ in his first 8 games) and saw his two highest target totals of the season in the last two weeks. Tampa Bay has been a tough matchup against WRs for much of the season, but there have been some cracks in recent weeks. Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp both reached 130 yards against them in week 11, and Tyreek Hill caught for 200 against them in a single quarter in week 12. The Bucs have had an extra week to prepare for this game, but they’re likely to be without their #2 CB Jamel Dean in this game. Top corner Carlton Davis will probably be shadowing Adam Thielen, and if that’s the case Jefferson will most often match up with Sean Murphy-Bunting, who has allowed a 119 passer rating on 69 throws into his coverage. Don’t be afraid to fire up Jefferson as your WR1 again this week.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 14: vs. KC): It’s tough to know what to expect this week from Tua given that this isn’t an easy matchup for a QB and the offense will be a bit shorthanded, but those same factors could also lead to a pass-happy game plan for the ‘Phins. The Chiefs are favored by a touchdown, and the Dolphins are missing their top 3 running backs. The guys they do have available (DeAndre Washington & Patrick Laird) are both better suited to a 3rd down pass catching role, so they may have some trouble establishing the run game. The Chiefs have allowed the 12-fewest QB points per game, but they’ve been shakier in recent weeks. KC has allowed 2 or more TD passes in 4 straight games, and 20+ fantasy points to the opposing QB in 3 of them. Tua set a new career-high with 39 pass attempts last week, and he could make a run at that number again. I’d view him as a lower-end QB2 with upside.

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 14: @Mia.): Edwards-Helaire let down a lot of fantasy players last week when he was active on Sunday night but didn’t play a single snap. That’s not likely to happen again this week. CEH should be good to go for week 14, and this is a reasonable spot for a nice game for the rookie. The Dolphins are easier to run on than throw, ranking 24th in run defense DVOA and 6th in pass defense DVOA. The Chiefs are a team that can shred even the best pass defenses, but this is still a week where they would be smart to keep Clyde in the game plan. Le’Veon Bell didn’t look very explosive last week, and the Dolphins have allowed at least one running back to run for 65 yards or more in 4 of their last 5 games. In the only game they lost in that stretch, Denver had two different backs each reach 80 rushing yards. The Chiefs are a touchdown favorite in this one. CEH should have a good chance to return RB2 value this week even if he doesn’t find the end zone.

RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 14: @Cle.): Dobbins has been productive in recent weeks, with 70+ rushing yards and a TD the week before and the week after his stint on the COVID list, but he’s done that against bad run defenses (Tennessee and Dallas). He’s still sharing more of the running back load than I’d like and turning limited opportunities into production. He played less than 40% of the snaps against the Cowboys and touched the ball just 11 times. It’ll likely take more work than that to post a similarly productive day against the Browns. Cleveland allows the 9th-fewest running back points per game. Dobbins did get in the end zone twice against these Browns in week 1 and he’s certainly the most explosive back in this backfield, but if you start him you’re hoping he continues to be productive on limited touches, and doing so in a tougher matchup. I’d view him as a flex play this week.

WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 14: vs. Was.): Aiyuk gets a tough matchup this week against a Washington team allowing the 2nd-fewest WR points per game, and a tough individual matchup with Kendall Fuller, but he’s been productive in tough matchups before. The Football Team has given up long TD passes to Amari Cooper and James Washington in each of their last two games, and Aiyuk is pretty much the only downfield receiving threat the 49ers have. In the last 4 games he’s been active for, Aiyuk has averaged 10 targets and 94 yards per game and found the end zone in 3 of them. Even in this tougher matchup, he’s likely to be a solid WR3.

WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 14: vs. Dal.): Higgins draws the best matchup he’s had since before the team’s bye in week 9. The ceiling has been capped with Brandon Allen at QB, but he’s still seen 13 targets in the last two weeks with Allen starting and Dallas allows the 4th-most WR points per game. In their last 6 games, Dallas has allowed 11 wide receivers to reach double-digit fantasy points. Higgins should be a pretty safe bet for 10+ points, and this week will probably be about as good a chance as you’ll have to get him in the lineup the rest of the way.

WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 14: @Buf.): Claypool was surprisingly limited to just 31 snaps and 4 targets last week, losing playing time to James Washington. It was his first game with fewer than 8 targets since week 7, and there is no guarantee that number bounces back this week. JuJu Smith-Schuster gets the best individual matchup of the week against Taron Johnson, and Diontae Johnson has the safest target share (at least 10 targets in every full game he’s played this year). 60+ yards and a TD is always possible for Claypool, but this week he’s more of a borderline WR3 than a guy I would fire up with confidence.

WR Michael Pittman, Jr. (Wk. 14: @LV): Last week’s blowup game by TY Hilton shows that I may have been a little early to anoint Pittman as the WR1 in Indy, but he gets another decent matchup this week with the Raiders. Vegas allows the 13th-most WR points per game, but that number would probably be higher if they weren’t also bad at stopping the run. Even if he truly hasn’t overtaken Hilton yet, Pittman has still been utilized a lot in recent weeks and has a solid connection with Philip Rivers. In his last 5 games, Pittman has averaged 6.4 targets, 4.2 catches, and just under 60 yards per game. He had an inefficient performance in week 12 with just 2 catches on 9 targets, but if you throw that game away he and Rivers have connected on 15 of the last 16 throws in his direction. If the targets are there again this week, the points will be too. He’s an upside flex play.

WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 14: @Cin.): Lamb managed to make it 5 straight weeks with at least 4 receptions last Sunday, but he still hasn’t caught for more than 71 yards in a game not started by Dak Prescott. Amari Cooper draws the toughest individual matchup among the Cowboy receivers against Cincy’s #1 corner William Jackson, so there could be a couple extra throws that come Lamb’s way. CeeDee should mostly face off with Mackensie Alexander in the slot. Alexander has allowed nearly a 70% completion percentage into his coverage, but just 6.3 yards per target and zero touchdowns on 45 throws in his direction. Lamb remains a floor play flex option once again.

TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 14: vs. Hou.): Kmet finally saw the targets to match his snap share last week. He’s out-snapped Jimmy Graham for 3 straight games but had nothing to show for it until last Sunday. Facing off with a defense that allows the 8th-fewest tight end points per game, Kmet managed to put up 5-37-1 on 7 targets. Houston isn’t as tough on the position, allowing the 16th-most points. Kmet is far from a safe option, but he’s in play as a borderline TE1 this week at what has been a barren fantasy position once you get past the top few options.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Jalen Hurts, PHI (Wk. 14: vs. NO): The Eagles have made the bold decision to turn to Hurts at QB this week and send Carson Wentz to the bench. This move might’ve been made sooner if the Eagles didn’t have so much invested in Wentz. Wentz has struggled badly, but Hurts gets a tough matchup for his first career start. The Saints rank 2nd in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 3rd-fewest QB points per game for the year. There will be a learning curve for Hurts as a passer at the NFL level, and the Eagles offensive line play should be even shakier going forward with Jason Peters out for the rest of the year. Hurts does have a ton of upside as a runner that could make him an interesting QB2 option in one of these final weeks, but I don’t think this is the week to count on that. I’ve seen prop bets for Hurts’ rushing yards this week set at 33.5, and I would be hammering the over on that number. He ran for at least that many yards in every single game at Oklahoma last year, and for 60+ yards in 10 of his 14 games.

RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 14: vs. Pit.): Moss had been functioning as the 1-A back of the Bills backfield committee in recent weeks, but a costly fumble deep in their own territory last Monday (that was somehow charged to Josh Allen) changed that quickly. Devin Singletary played most of the snaps after the fumble. Moss will probably play more this week than he did last week, but the way he was completely benched last week leads me to believe he’ll have some work to do to build back the trust from the coaches to go back to his normal role. I’d expect Moss to be more of the 1-B to Singletary for the immediate future, and this week the Bills face a Pittsburgh defense that ranks 3rd in run defense DVOA and allows the 2nd-fewest RB points per game. That’s not a great situation for his fantasy prospects this week.

RB/WRs Lynn Bowden, Jr. & Malcolm Perry, MIA (Wk. 14: vs. KC): News broke this weekend that Myles Gaskin was placed on the Dolphins’ COVID list, and backups Salvon Ahmed & Matt Brieda have both already been ruled out as well. That leaves just DeAndre Washington and Patrick Laird as healthy backs on the team, and both are better suited to a 3rd down receiving role. Washington is expected to be the starter, but there has been speculation that Lynn Bowden could help fill some of the void since he played some running back in college. I’m not convinced. Bowden has played the vast majority of his snaps as a pro at wide receiver. His running back eligibility could give him some upside if I was confident that he was going to play most of the snaps at slot WR, but Malcolm Perry’s return from injury throws some doubt on that. Perry is a similarly versatile player who played 78% of the offensive snaps in the last game he was healthy for. Bowden was more productive last week than Perry was before getting hurt, but Perry was playing ahead of Bowden prior to the injury. I’d expect him to take at least some of the slot WR work from Bowden if he’s active. That’s enough to make want to avoid both in a matchup against a defense that allows the 3rd-fewest WR points per game.

RB Joshua Kelley, LAC (Wk. 14: vs. Atl.): As expected, Kelley was banished to the bench with both Austin Ekeler and Kalen Ballage active last week. Kelley played just 3 snaps in garbage time of a blowout loss to New England last Sunday. It’s unlikely he sees that playing time increase much without an injury in front of him.

RB Anthony McFarland, PIT (Wk. 14: @Buf.): In the last two weeks with James Conner sidelined on the COVID list, McFarland played a total of just 25 snaps and posted 41 scrimmage yards. Conner returns this week, so there’s no reason McFarland should be in your lineups.

RB Darrynton Evans, TEN (Wk. 14: @Jax.): Evans returns from IR this week, so he is a name to remember, but he’ll be competing with Jeremy McNichols for backup work and this is Derrick Henry’s show. The only way he’ll play more than a handful of snaps in this one is if there happens to be garbage time. The Titans are favored by 7.5 and the Jaguars have just one win, so it’s possible that happens, but the Jaguars have lost by more than 4 points just once in their past 5 games. Only one of those last 5 opponents has a record below .500.

WRs Jerry Jeudy & KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 14: @Car.): Jeudy and Hamler have flashed fantasy upside at times this year, but the Broncos’ passing game is tough to count on week-to-week. Jeudy in particular hasn’t quite been on the same page with Drew Lock this season, as only 54% of Jeudy’s targets this season have been catchable according to Pro Football Focus. This week’s opponent, the Panthers, allow the 13th-fewest WR points per game, and the guys who have done the most damage against them have been WR1s. Tim Patrick has led the Broncos WRs in snaps in each of the last 3 weeks and has functioned as the WR1 of this offense when healthy. The full list of wide receivers who have put up 15+ points against the Panthers this season is Mike Evans (twice), Keenan Allen, Justin Jefferson, Calvin Ridley (with Julio out), and Julio Jones (in the other meeting). None of these Denver receivers are in that ballpark right now. I’d look for a better option this week.

WR Collin Johnson, JAX (Wk. 14: vs. Ten.): Johnson has taken advantage of injuries ahead of him on the depth chart to emerge in the last couple weeks, posting a line of 8-162-1 in the last 2 games on 14 targets due to missed time by DJ Chark and Laviska Shenault. Mike Glennon has always liked tall receivers, so Johnson has been a popular name in fantasy circles after his recent performances, but I think he goes back to a limited role this week with Shenault on track to return. Viska exited the game last week just before halftime with a thumb injury. This is a plus matchup for wide receivers with the Titans allowing the 5th-most points per game to the position, but I’d be surprised if Johnson sees more than just a few targets. Chark and Shenault are the Jacksonville receivers I’d view as most likely to take advantage of the matchup.

WR Jalen Reagor, PHI (Wk. 14: vs. NO): As the Eagles get healthier at the skill positions, Reagor continues to inexplicably lose target share and snaps to guys who probably shouldn’t be featured ahead of him. Alshon Jeffery played his highest snap share of the season last week, and Zach Ertz’s return is bound to siphon off targets from other weapons as well. In his first game back, he played a higher snap share as the TE2 behind Goedert than Richard Rodgers did in any game this year. Those snaps are going to come from the receivers. Travis Fulgham has taken a bigger hit than Reagor, but it hasn’t been good for the rookie either. He was targeted just once last week in a game where Philly threw the ball 27 times. The addition of Jalen Hurts at QB makes this offense even more unpredictable. Reagor is probably going to be tough to trust in you lineups just about every week the rest of the way.

WR Henry Ruggs, LV (Wk. 14: vs. Ind.): Ruggs made one of the plays of the week last Sunday when the Jets inexplicably blitzed on the last play of the game and left the speedster one-on-one with undrafted rookie corner Lamar Jackson, and he made them pay with a game-winning TD catch. While it was a feel-good moment for Ruggs, it isn’t a reason for you to start putting him into your fantasy lineups. Last week was just the second time all season that Ruggs topped 8 fantasy points, and he needed that miracle TD to do it. He had less than 5 fantasy points before the final play. This week he faces a Colts defense that allows the 9th-fewest WR points per game and ranks 5th in pass defense DVOA. I wouldn’t count on a repeat performance.

WR Quintez Cephus, DET (Wk. 14: vs. GB): Like Henry Ruggs, Cephus caught a long TD in a comeback win last Sunday, but as with Ruggs it’s not a reason to trust him going forward. Cephus now has 14 targets in 2 games against the Bears, and 11 total targets in the other 6 games he’s played. Marvin Hall was cut recently after Mohamed Sanu was brought in, and Cephus has been splitting snaps with Sanu and Danny Amendola behind Marvin Jones. Jones has been a full-time player, and in the first game without Marvin Hall it was Sanu at 59% of the snaps, Amendola at 49%, and Cephus at 46%. Sanu has seen his snap share increase each week he’s been with the team, and Amendola was likely being eased back in after missing the previous two games, so there is reason to believe Cephus will play less this week. Jaire Alexander is likely to be shadowing Marvin Jones, so there is upside for the receivers behind him, but I don’t expect Quintez to be the beneficiary.

WR Devin Duvernay, BAL (Wk. 14: @Cle.): Devin could’ve been a sneaky play this week if Willie Snead and Mark Andrews weren’t activated from the COVID list ahead of the game. The Browns allow the 7th-most WR points per game, and with Dez Bryant seemingly calling it quits after testing positive for Covid-19 on Tuesday, Duvernay would’ve been in line for a sizable role against that defense if Snead & Andrews were out. With them back he will play his usual role, a role that hasn’t seen him handle more than 3 targets in any game this season. He’s no more than a minimum-priced dart throw in DFS tournaments.

TE Adam Trautman, NO (Wk. 14: @Phi.): Trautman was leading the Saints’ TE group in snaps for a few weeks with Taysom Hill at QB, but hadn’t converted those snaps to production. Last week he dropped to just 35% of the snaps, and posted just 3 catches for 9 yards against the worst TE defense in the league. This week will likely be the last start for Hill this season, and when Brees comes back I’d expect Trautman’s snaps to decrease even further. He’s playing because he’s a better run blocker than the other TE options on the team. We haven’t seen enough production from Trautman to consider him even in another plus matchup this week.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB DeeJay Dallas, SEA (Wk. 14: vs. NYJ): The logic here is pretty simple. The Seahawks are a 2-touchdown favorite playing the worst team in the league. Carlos Hyde and Chris Carson are both less than 100% and Travis Homer is doubtful this week. If the Seahawks put this game away early, we could see a lot of Dallas in the 2nd half, and I like the Seahawks’ chances to put this game away early. The Jets’ new defensive coordinator said the scheme won’t change much with Gregg Williams gone. The Jets are one of the blitz-happiest in the league (3rd-highest blitz rate), and Russell Wilson feasts on defenses that give his receivers one-on-one coverage. The Jets are a better run defense than pass defense, so I expect Russ to carve them up in the first half, and for the Seahawks to put things on cruise control in the second half. Dallas costs the minimum on DraftKings, and could see double-digit touches in a game where the Seahawks implied point total is over 30 points.

WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 14: vs. Ten.): As mentioned with Collin Johnson, the Titans are not a very good defense against wide receivers. They allow the 5th-most points per game to the position and rank 30th in pass defense DVOA. Shenault managed to post a useful day last week despite getting injured late in the first half, and this week could have a very favorable individual matchup. The Titans will be without Adoree Jackson, Breon Borders & Kristian Fulton at CB, and the likely guy they’ll ask to step in and start is Tye Smith. Smith has played limited snaps this season, but has allowed 2 TDs and a passer rating of 140.7 on the 11 throws into his coverage. Viska hasn’t really shown a big ceiling this season, but if there is a week for him to do it, it’s probably this one.

WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 14: vs. Pit.): In the 5 games where Davis has played 70% or more of the offensive snaps, he’s posted 58+ receiving yards 4 times, averaging about 60 yards and 10 fantasy points per game in those contests. This one is a tough matchup. The Steelers rank 1st in pass defense DVOA, but there are 11 teams that allow fewer WR points per game than Pittsburgh, and John Brown remains on IR so Davis is likely to play almost every snap. He’s a reasonable flex option of you’re searching for points in a deep league.

WR Darnell Mooney, TEN (Wk. 14: vs. Hou.): This matchup is a great spot for Allen Robinson, but Mooney could return nice value as well. In each of their 3 games without Bradley Roby, the Texans have allowed the opposing #1 receiver to put up at least 110 yards and a touchdown, but they are a lackluster pass defense overall. They rank 25th in pass defense DVOA, and in the last two games with Trubisky at quarterback Mooney has been targeted 15 times. That kind of volume in this matchup gives him a reasonable shot at 50+ yards, a mark he hasn’t reached since week 8.

WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Bal.): KhaDarel Hodge is likely out this week, so Donovan Peoples-Jones should be the WR3 for Cleveland again Monday night. Game script will likely have the Browns throwing more this week than they did last week, and while he hasn’t seen a ton of targets DPJ has made a big touchdown play in both games where he’s played 50%+ of the snaps. There is some question as to whether Marvin Hall will steal any snaps from him in his first active game with Cleveland, but I’d expect it to be mostly Peoples-Jones. The Ravens allow just the 6th-fewest WR points per game, so DPJ is no more than a cheap upside option for DFS tournaments.

TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Bal.): Austin Hooper is listed as questionable after popping up on the injury report Friday with a ‘did not practice’ designation for a neck injury. If Hooper misses this game, Bryant has upside in this one if you’re desperate for a tight end. The Ravens have a reputation as a tough defense, but they are in the middle of the pack against tight ends (17th-most TE points allowed per game) and Bryant posted a 4-56-2 line in the one game he played with Hooper sidelined that wasn’t in a monsoon. If Hooper sits, Bryant is probably a borderline top-15 play at tight end this week.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies, and helps you advance to next week. Make sure to check the active/inactive updates on Sunday, and make sure you don’t start a sidelined player. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Check out Shawn this week on the Fantasy Finish Line Podcast, starting on Wednesday at 9pm

Notes from Ep 1011 - Christmas Eve Extravaganza! + Week 16 Matchups, Fantasy Grinches

NFL Prop Bets: Taking the Unders on QB passing yards despite scoring at an all-time high

Notes from Ep 1015 - New Year's Eve MEGAshow + Week 17 Matchups, Motivation Levels

Happy New Year! Here it is folks, the last notes for the 2020 fantasy season! I hope y'all had a great season! Tune back in next season :D

Post-show updates:

Alvin Kamara is on COVID/IR and is OUT

Taking It Up To 100

Andy and Mike are tied and battling for the Taking It To 100 Trophy

Sterling Shepard vs DAL - Andy
Tyron Johnson vs KC - Jason
Ty Johnson vs NE - Mike

News & Notes

Dalvin Cook - OUT
Mike Davis is doubtful

-Rodney Smith is a worthwhile play

CMC - OUT
Robby Anderson (groin) DNP
James Robinson - OUT
Kyler Murray - IN
Chase Edmonds is out per beat reporters
DeAndre Hopkins DNP
Keenan Allen - OUT
Le'Veon Bell DNP

-Darwin Thompson is a play this week

Dallas Goedert DNP
DJ Chark Jr. DNP
Evan Engram (calf) limited in practice
Antonio Gibson DNP
Alex Smith DNP
Terry McLaurin DNP
Matthew Stafford DNP
HC McVay says Cam Akers will likely play this week
Cooper Kupp tests (+) and is out

Week 17 Matchups - Part 1

Levels of Team Motivation in Week 17

Jay Cutler - smoking on the sideline
Adam Gase - about to be flushed
Mike Glennon - just happy to be here!!
Tony Robbins - motivated to achieve
Matt Foley - about to have a hemorrhoids from zeal to win

Dolphins (-3) at Bills, 42.5 O/U

Dolphins - 5 Bills - 2

Start:

-Gaskin, Gesicki

Bench:

-Allen/Diggs

Ravens (-13) at Bengals, 43.5 O/U

Ravens - 5 Bengals - 3

Start:

-Jackson, Dobbins, Brown, Andrews
-Higgins/Boyd, Gio

Steelers (+9.5) at Browns, 42.5 O/U

Steelers - 1 Browns - 5

Start:

-Ebron
-Chubb, Landry, Hooper

Flex:

-Johnson
-Hunt, Higgins

Bench:

-All other Steelers

Vikings (-6.5) at Lions, 53.4 O/U

Vikings - 4 Lions - 2

Start:

-Cousins, Jefferson, Thielen, Big Irv
-Swift, Hockenson

Flex:

-Jones

Bench:

-Stafford

Jets (-3) at Patriots, 40 O/U

Jets - 2 Patriots - 4

Start:

-Johnson, Crowder

Bench:

-All Patriots

Cowboys (-1.5) at Giants, 44. O/U

Cowboys - 5 Giants - 5

Start:

-Cooper, Gallup, Zeke, Dalton, Schultz
-Shepard, Engram, Jones

Flex:

-Lamb
-Gallman

Starts of the Week

Kirk Cousins vs DET - Andy
Ryan Tannehill vs Texans - Jason
Alex Smith vs PHI - Mike

MG3 vs LV - Andy
D'Andre Swift vs MIN - Jason
Malcolm Brown vs ARI - Mike

AJ Brown vs HOU - Andy
Jarvis Landry vs PIT - Jason
Mike Williams vs KC - Mike

Irv Smith Jr. vs DET - Andy
Noah Fant vs LV - Jason
Dalton Schultz vs NYG - Mike

Boom Boom Kicker of the Week

"Oh get your lips ready for a championship for a really nice pucker cuz we're going with the best, the Ravens' Justin Tucker"

Week 17 Matchups - Part 2

Falcons (+6.5) at Buccaneers, 50 O/U

Falcons - 3 Bucs - 4

Start:

-Ryan, Ridley, Hurst
-Brady, Evans, Godwin, Gronk

Bench:

-Gurley/Hill

Packers (-4) at Bears, 50.5 O/U

Packers - 5 Bears - 5

Start:

-Rodgers, Jones, Adams, Tonyan
-Montgomery, Robinson

Flex:

-Dillon

Raiders (-3) at Broncos, 51 O/U

Raiders - 1 Broncos - 1

Start:

-Jacobs, Agholor, Waller
-MG3

Flex:

-Jeudy, Patrick

Jaguars (+13.5) at Colts, 49.5 O/U

Jaguars - 3 Colts - 5

Start:

-Ogunbowale
-Rivers, Taylor, Hines, Hilton

Flex:

-Pascal, Pittman

Chargers (-3.5) at Chiefs, 44 O/U

Chargers - 2 Chiefs - 1

Start:

-Herbert, Ekeler, Williams, Henry

Bench:

-All Chiefs

Cardinals (-3) at Rams, 40.5 O/U

Cardinals - 5 Rams - 5

Start:

-Murray, Drake, Nuk
-Goff, Brown, Woods

Seahawks (-6.5) at 49ers, 46 O/U

Seahawks - 5 49ers - 3

Start:

-Metcalf
-Kittle, Wilson

Flex:

-Lockett

Bench:

-Wilson
-All other 49ers

Saints (-6.5) at Panthers, 47.5 O/U

Saints - 4 Panthers - 1

Start:

-Brees, Cook, Thomas, Sanders

Titans (-7.5) at Texans, 56 O/U

Titans - 5 Texans - 3

Andy's Almost Upset of the Week

Start:

-Tannehill, Henry, Brown, Davis, Smith
-Watson, DJ, Cooks

Bench:

-Hansen

Washington (-3.5) at Eagles, 43.5 O/U

Washington - 5 Eagles - 3 Water Bet: Who wins the game? Eagles (Jason), Football Team (Andy)

Start:

-Gibson, McLaurin, Thomas
-Hurts, Ertz

Flex:

-McKissic

Prop It Like It's Hot

Calvin Ridley > 96.5 rec yds vs TB - Jason
Myles Gaskin > 13.5 fantasy pts vs BUF - Andy
Mason Rudolph < 201.5 pass yds vs CLE - Mike

r/NFL Top 100 Players of the 2019 Season - #20-11

Welcome to the reveal for players ranked 20-11 for this year’s NFL Top 100 Players for the 2019 Season!

Players whose average rank had them land in places 20-11 are on this portion of the list revealed today. Players are associated with the team they finished 2019 with.
Below you will see write-ups from rankers summarizing the players' 2019 season and why they were among the best in 2019. Stats for each player are from this season and are included below. Additionally, their previous ranks in this long running series are also available for all of you.
Methodology
LINK TO THE HUB POST WITH A MORE DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE METHODOLOGY

A CALL FOR RANKERS just after the Super Bowl.
Rankers for each team nominated players to rank. 10 Games Played Minimum Threshold. Players are associated with the team they finished the 2019 Season with.
The Grind. Utilize ranking threads for individual rankers broken up by positional group. Users were tasked with ranking players within the following tiers based on their evaluation: T-25, T-50, T-100, T-125 based on 2019 regular season only. There were no individual case threads. There were no arbitrary position limit caps. Just questions and rankings.
Users submitted their individual Top 125 list. Ranking out to 125 is new for this year.
User lists were reviewed for outliers by me with assistance from two former rankers. Users were permitted to correct any mistakes found. Once complete, lists were locked.
Reveal the list… right now.

So now, without further ado, here are the players ranked 20-11 in the NFL Top 100 Players of the 2019 Season!

#20 - Danielle Hunter - EDGE - Minnesota Vikings

Previous Ranks

2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/R	N/R	N/R	32

Written By: uggsandstarbux
Khalil Mack. Von Miller. JJ Watt. Those are the names that come up when you mention edge players in the NFL over the last half a decade. Yet none have as many sacks as Danielle Hunter in the last two years. Hunter is continually passed over in the conversation of edge rushers. Even among young edge rushers like the Bosa brothers, TJ Watt, Myles Garrett, and Bradley Chubb, Hunter is forgotten. He only received 4 All Pro votes from AP (of a possible 50). He failed to make PFF’s All Pro team. Is it because he wasn’t a 1st round pick? Is it because the Vikings defense was already dominant before his arrival?
Hunter has improved every year he’s gotten into the league (88 pressures this year vs 67 last year vs 55 in 2016). His first couple years in the league, he rotated in behind Everson Griffen and Brian Robinson. Yet he holds the record for most sacks before his 25th birthday and was one of only a handful of players in 2019 with double digit sacks and 15+ TFLs last season. He earned an 89.0 overall grade from PFF and forced 3 fumbles this year.
Beyond the numbers, Hunter is a unit. He came out of LSU as one of the more raw pass rushers in his draft. However, under the tutelage of the mighty Andre Patterson, Hunter has become one of the most athletic, versatile, technical, dominant edge defenders in the game. He can beat you with a pure bull rush, but he can also beat you with his speed and agility. He’s picked up Everson Griffen’s deadly spin move and has the motor to work through double teams. He can win with an inside move, or he can play pure 3T for an entire game (a la vs NO). He’s got a great understanding of the game and is a force to be reckoned with. If you’re placing bets for DPOY in 2020, don’t waste your money on the big name guys like Aaron Donald (+750) or Khalil Mack (+1100). Don’t spend it on young up and comers, lke Nick Bosa (+1300) or TJ Watt (+1500) either. Place it on Danielle Hunter (+2300). He’s going to continue dominating as he gains more recognition and climbs toward stardom.

#19 - Chris Godwin - Wide Receiver - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Previous Ranks

2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/R	N/R

Written By: MysticTyph00n
At the beginning of the 2019 NFL season Bruce Arians said:
"I think Chris Godwin is going to be close to a 100-catch guy, especially because I think he can play in the slot,"...."He's never coming off the field."
Bucs fans thought this could be very well true in BA's system, especially with the departure of Desean Jackson which only really left Mike Evans as the only other real target on the team.
The 3rd round pick from Penn State showed up big time this year after having two relatively quiet seasons. Through 13.5 games (missing the final 2.5 due to a hamstring injury) he amassed 86 receptions for 1,333 yards, 9 TDs and only one drop(In fact he's only had 2 drops total in 2018 & 2019)He very well could have gone over 100 receptions , 1,500 yards as well as double digit TDs, but that's just projecting right?
According to PFF he was an absolute monster in the slot with an outstanding 96.5 grade, which shows he can line up anywhere on the field and still produce big time for the Buccaneers.
In 2020, I honestly expect Chris Godwin to have close to the same production, and possibly even better with how much he produces from the slot.
Please don't leave us…

#18 - Quenton Nelson - Offensive Guard - Indianapolis Colts

Previous Ranks

2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	70

Written By: Zzyzx8
Selecting a guard 6th overall was a bold movie for second year GM Chris Ballard, even one as highly touted as Quenton Nelson. Casual fans hated it, while draft junkies loved it. Two years later, it’s become clear that the pick was a home run. Nelson’s selection single handedly turned around a unit that was largely responsible for a slew of injuries to Andrew Luck into one of the best units. Nelson’s second year was only better, cementing himself as one of the best guards in the league, a true road grader. He spent the past year terrorizing nfl defensive lineman en route to his second pro bowl and all pro selections. Plus, he pulled off what was by far the best touchdown celebration of the season

#17 - Jamal Adams - Strong Safety - New York Jets

Previous Ranks

2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/R	18

Written By: ~~the_fuzzy_stoner~~ robdog1330
I would just like to start with a moment of silence for the fans of the New York Jets after Jamal Adams recently demanded a trade from that inept organization with a dumpster fire of a coach in Adam Gase.
Anyways, after an incredible sophomore season, Adams has kept up with his awesome play in his third season as one of the NFL's best and most versatile defensive players as well as the clear-cut best player on a football team that somehow won seven games. Adams, also known as President 'Mal, recorded an interception (which was returned 61 yards to the house), 7 passes defended, 11 hurries, and 36 stops, but that's not all! Adams also garnered 6.5 sacks (which is amazing for a DB) and forced two fumbles (like this one he returned to the house on my guy Daniel Jones 😔). With his exceptional play, the star safety was named to the 1st Team All-Pro as well as his second Pro Bowl selection (an honor which none of his other Jets teammates got this year).
What makes Adams so special is that he is exceptional against both the running and passing game. Whether he's with Gang Green or another franchise next year, I'd expect another stellar season out of Jamal Adams in 2020 (assuming there is one) and even as a Giants fan who watched him dominate my team this past season, I really appreciate the guy's play.

#16 - Derrick Henry - Running Back - Tennessee Titans

Previous Ranks

2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/R	N/R	N/R

Written By: broccolibush42
DERRRRIIIICK HENRY!!!
This part man part tractor was the plow that turned our barren field into a bountiful wheat field full of Nashville Hot Chicken. This beautiful muscly man with a poop rat tail decimated opponents and General Sherman'd the ^{^{^AFC}} South. Totaling at 1540 yards and 16 Touchdowns in 15 games, with 6 coming from a slow start in a Mariota lead offense, he caught fire and dragged his nuts all over teams like the Chargers, Chiefs, Jags, Colts, Texans, Raiders and was showing just absolute dominance on the field. (Sadly we arent able to take the playoffs into account otherwise i'd gush over how he embarrassed a couple of scrub one and done teams).
Henry has this certain tenacity and a godlike level of endurance that just makes him an absolute beast in the 2nd half. He is just able to keep going, and going, and going, until finally, players get tired of it and turn into lead blockers for him. He is extremely hard to tackle to. Take a look at this play against the Chiefs in week 10, guys just bounce off him like he's running through toddlers. Derrick Henry is so hard to tackle that, according to PFF, Henry had over 1200 of his 1540 total yards after contact. Like this dude was getting hit at the line of scrimmage and he is just like, fuck this shit, i aint no dion lewis, and keeps going. How is this guy even real???
Another thing about Henry is his speed! Henry is a 6'3" 240 pound dude running 20+ MPH down the field when he breaks the open one. Like look at this speed he gets vs the Browns in week 1. Or this one against the Jags where he outruns guys and stiff arms the ones who barely managed to keep pace. Speaking of stiff arms, Derrick Henry has one of, if not, the BEST Stiff Arm in the league. If I had to pick a way to die, I think I would like Henry to stiff arm me in the face running at me at 21 miles per hour with this face, because there would be no greater honor to a titans fan than death by Henry. That concludes my Henry jerk fest. Here are some more highlights. ^{^{^{^and}}} ^{^{^{^here}}} ^{^{^{^are}}} ^{^{^{^the}}} ^{^{^{^real}}} ^{^{^{^link.}}}

#15 - Travis Kelce - Tight End - Kansas City Chiefs

Previous Ranks

2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
N/A	N/R	84	N/R	28	31	13

Written By: DTSportsNow
Travis Kelce was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2013 draft. He wound up missing his rookie season due needing to receive microfracture surgery on his knee over the offseason and dealing with a bone bruise during the season. Since then he's received 4 All-Pro designations and was named to the NFL 2010s All-Decade team. He's also become the 1st TE in NFL history to have 4 straight 1,000+ yard seasons. Not bad considering how his career got started.
In 2019 he finished his 2nd straight season of 1,200+ yards and 3rd straight season leading the league in deep receiving yards by a tight end (274). He finished top 4 in overall TE grade for the 4th straight year (85.1), and was named to his second 2nd-team All-Pro designation. In the Sunday Night Football contest against the Chicago Bears he caught his 500th career reception, becoming the fastest TE in NFL history to reach that mark.
There's no doubt that Kelce is one of the best tight ends in the game, and winding up in the top 20 proves many believe him to be one of the very best players in the league. Since Gronk's decline it's essentially been between him and George Kittle for the top player at the position. He's a key component of what Andy Reid and the Chiefs like to do on offense, even as stacked as the offence is. With a Super Bowl victory and a few records to his name already his legacy will be decided by how long he can keep up his premier play. His partnership with Patrick Mahomes should take him to a locked up Hall of Fame bust.

#14 - Ryan Ramczyk - Offensive Tackle - New Orleans Saints

Previous Ranks

2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	100	74

Written By: Dahki
In 2017, sb nation wrote an article claiming that Ryan Ramczyk wasn't a first round talent at LT. The site went so far as to say he would benefit from a switch to RT. In short, they ended up nailing that on the head. The three-year vet has spent almost the entirety of his career anchoring the right side of the Saints O-line after being picked at 32 overall, and boy, has it worked out for both the team and the Wisconsin alum.
Ram makes the /nfl top 100 list for two reasons. First, he was really good. Second, we really wanted to hammer in the idea that the Saints O-line as a whole was really good. Most notably, Ram exits the 2019 season with his first first-team all pro, and he was more than deserving of it. Similar to teammate Terron Armstead, Ram refused to allow Brees or Teddy to be touched, giving up no sacks on the season. Even better, Ram kept his QBs almost squeaky clean in the pocket, allowing just one hit on the entire season, good for 2nd best in the league among nominated tackles. And Ram didn't just do well in pass pro; he was PFFs top graded OT when run-blocking, showcasing his power and quickness from his spot. In total, Ram spent the 2019 season as the biggest challenge for opposing D-lines to overcome when facing the Saints.

#13 - Julio Jones - Wide Receiver - Atlanta Falcons

Previous Ranks

2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
32	93	23	8	2	21	17

Written By: CokeZ3ro
It's a bird, it’s a plane, no it's Jet Jones! In his 9th season Julio continues to be one of the most dominant receivers in the NFL, and the undisputed best player on the team. He’s a force that defenses must give their full attention, and even then he can explode. Even when he doesn’t get the ball, his influence and abilities still shape the play, and better everyone around him. This past offseason Julio agreed to a three-year contract extension worth $66 million, making him the NFL’s highest paid WR, and extending him to 2023. Even though 2019 was a down year statistically, Julio continued to show why the money is worth it. In a “down year” Julio was 2nd in reception yards, 3rd in Yards/Game, and 1st in Scrimmage Yards/Touch, and made his 6th consecutive Pro-Bowl.
But stats can hardly capture the elite combination of athleticism and skill that makes Julio so great. A combination perfectly captured here where Julio is able to jump over the coverage of CB Leodis McKelvin and then tiptoe to complete the coverage on the way down. Later that same game, with the Falcons against the wall, Julio showed that no man can catch him in a 53-yard burst (shoutout to Jake Matthews for the Pancake Block). Julio utilized his route skills to make CB Pierre Desir eat turf before making a 34-yard reception; which likely would have been much more if Ryan didn’t underthrow it. He’s pretty good at catching too, exhibited as reaches over CB Quincy Wilson and manages to hold onto the ball through tackles from Wilson and SS Clayton Geathers to score. Doesn’t matter who you are, Luke Keuchly, Marshon Lattimore, AJ Bouye; doesn’t matter. bUt hE dOEsn’T gET tOUchDoWnS I hear the Fantasy owners say. Watch this and notice how often in the redzone Julio is serving to support his team (blocks, inside presence, taking double defenders), or is just ignored. He’s open more often people realize.
Even in a disappointing season for the Falcons, Julio continues to shine through as one of the NFL’s premiere combos of athleticism and skill. Julio is and will continue to be an absolute force for the offense.

#12 - Chandler Jones - EDGE - Arizona Cardinals

Previous Ranks

2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
N/R	N/R	N/R	N/R	60	24	100

Written By: Beehay
In my write up of ChanJo last year, I mentioned that the return to the 3/4 (even if it's under Vance Joseph) will be huge for his stats. And boy howdy was it! At 30 years old and after double digit sack totals for 5 straight years, Jones set a career high of sacks at 19 this year. He had 8 Forced Fumbles, 53 Tackles, and 26 QB hits. Most of his stats improved from 2018, some more drastically than others. His pass coverage marginally improved but why the hell would you really want him to cover guys? (Don't say it Niners fans, DON'T SAY IT)
Chandler Jones is the prototype for edge defenders. He is what all other Defensive Coordinators wish they had. Strong, fast, smart, consistent. Here's a guys opinion and a breakdown. Here's some highlights because not everybody watched all 16 Cardinals games last year and I don't blame them. I think he will rank even higher next year if he stays healthy because he will finally get to settle into a defense again. Even if it's Vance Joseph's.

#11 - Ronnie Stanley - Offensive Tackle - Baltimore Ravens

Previous Ranks

2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/R	N/R	97

Written By: Letsgomountaineers5
Where to begin with Ronnie Stanley? Oh, how about a nearly minute long clip of him absolutely bullying First Team All Pro and NFC DPOY Chandler Jones. You like that? (Sorry Cards fans, but hey we all know Chandler Jones is a beast). Ronnie Stanley was the best LT in the league. No wait, actually he was the best overall tackle in the league. Actually, Stanley was the best lineman in the league, bar none. I truly believe Stanley was a top 5 player in the NFL last season and even tried (and failed/came to senses) to argue Stanley as a top 2 player. His dominance on the left side of that line was unprecedented.
I know stats don’t paint the entire picture, especially for OL, but I have to start there because his stats were unworldly as a blindside protector facing the best pass rushers the NFL has to offer. Going against the likes of TJ Watt twice a year, Carlos Dunlap twice a year, Myles Garrett, Chandler Jones, Nick Bosa, Shaq Barrett (need I go on), he allowed zero sacks and six pressures on 445 pass blocking snaps. Of tackles with at least 400 pass blocking snaps to allow 6 pressures or less, he was the only one. Wait, the only one? Let’s expand. 10 pressures on 400 snaps? Hmm. Only Ronnie Stanley. 15? Hmm only Ronnie Stanley. 20 and no sacks? Only Ronnie Stanley. Unreal.
So how does he do it? Well for starters, he has an elite pass rusher’s explosion as an offensive lineman. He can pack a pop that will knock the best rushers off line or on their ass without overextending. Just ask Nick Bosa. Refer back to the Chandler Jones lowlight reel for a second and check out how often he simply beats Jones (one of the most explosive and best bending edge rushers in the game) to his spot time and time again. Stanley is out of his stance so fast it looks like he’s false starting and, be it film review/sixth sense/sheer athleticism (my money is on all three), he hits the pass rushers’ marks before they do. Sometimes, he even chips defenders to the ground he doesn’t have a responsibility for. Because of these reasons, he’s basically the only lineman in the game not playing catchup and is tremendously equipped to react to counters. In the run game, he was a driving reason behind that team’s record setting running success. He can be a mauler, but with his speed also can pull like the best guards in the game and lead block for some of the fastest players in the game.
At the end of the day, his dominance in both pass blocking and run blocking makes him a worthy top 15 player, and if not for a tendency to underrate linemen, I believe he should’ve been a shoe-in for the top 10. If you read this far, thank you. Now I need to go puke after that glowing endorsement for a Raven.

LINK TO 2019 POSITIONAL GROUPING TRACKER

LINK TO 2019 RANKER SHEETS

LINK TO HUB

Schedule Change

Unveiling of ranks 10-6 will take place Monday, July 6 instead of Tuesday. Unveiling of ranks 5-1 will take place on Thursday, July 9. Thank you!

NFL Week 15: Top Prop Bets For All 32 Teams

With just three weeks of regular-season action remaining, let’s take a look at a prop bet for each NFL team:
Arizona Cardinals
Will the Cards (-105) will lead by more than 3.5 points at halftime? Prediction: Yes
We saw Arizona take care of business against the Giants, who have a better scoring defense than the Eagles. Plus, the Cardinals are averaging almost 13 points per game in the first half while Philly is being held to just 8.8 points. Cards lead by a TD or more at halftime.
Atlanta Falcons
Will the Falcons (+114) score first? Prediction: Yes
The Buccaneers have proven they get off to slow starts. The Bucs are 17th in first-quarter scoring offense while Atlanta is fourth in the NFL. If Julio Jones can return from his hamstring injury, then I think the Falcons end up putting points on the board first.
Buffalo Bills
OveUnder: 3.5 turnovers forced by the Bills’ Defense. Prediction: Over
This is a nightmare matchup for the Broncos. Denver currently leads the NFL in giveaways with 29 on the season while the Bills are tied for third in takeaways. The Broncos lead the league in interceptions thrown. I expect them to turn the ball over a few times when they face Buffalo.
Baltimore Ravens
OveUnder: 249.5 rushing yards against the Jags this weekend. Prediction: Over
The Ravens come into this weekend with the number one rushing attack in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Jags have the third-worst rushing defense in the league. Jacksonville just allowed the Titans to run for 249 yards. I expect Baltimore to do even better on the ground.
Carolina Panthers
OveUnder: 6.5 catches for Robby Anderson Prediction: Over
Robby Anderson is eighth in the NFL in receptions and averages over six catches per game. I expect the Packers to go up big in this game meaning Carolina will have to try and force the ball downfield with long passes. As a result, Anderson will finish with a big game despite the Panthers losing big in the end.
Cincinnati Bengals
Will Cincinnati (+112) be the first team to kick a field goal? Prediction: Yes
The Bengals have the misfortune of going up against the Steelers after they lost their last two games. I can see this one getting out of hand in a hurry. However, I do think Cincy does get close enough to make the first field goal of the game. The Steelers won’t need to settle for Field Goals because they will keep finding the end zone.
Cleveland Browns
OveUnder 17.5 first-half points for the Browns. Prediction: Over
Cleveland has really found their offensive groove. The Brownies are averaging 23 points per contest in the first half of their last three games, and two of those matchups were against teams with winning records! I think Cleveland s offense continues to roll against the G-Men.
Chicago Bears
Will the Bears (+140) lead at halftime? Prediction: Yes
The return of Akiem Hicks also makes this a brutal matchup for Minnesota’s offense. With former pro bowl Linebacker Eric Kendricks questionable for the game, I could see Chicago going into the fourth quarter of this game with a lead.
Dallas Cowboys
Will the Cowboys vs. 49ers go require overtime (+1400)? Prediction: Yes
This is one of those weird games where both teams are kind of dead in the water at the moment. However, the Boys have something to play for while the 49ers don’t. It also looks like Andy Dalton has found his rhythm in this offense. I think a field goal as time expires sends this game to overtime.
Denver Broncos
Will the Broncos (-105) score more than 21.5? Prediction: No
Denver has the third-worst scoring offense in the NFL ahead of only Cincinnati and both New York football teams. Even though Buffalo is towards the middle of the pack in scoring defense, I still don’t think the Broncos will score over 21 points. The Broncos will go down big early and abandon the run, meaning they will make plenty of mistakes in the passing game. Denver scores maybe 17 points.
Detroit Lions
OveUnder 26.5 pass attempts by the Lions against the Titans Prediction: Under
The Lions are one of the most pass-happy teams in the NFL. However, Matthew Stafford suffered a rib injury against the Packers so his status for this weekend is up in the air. If Stafford doesn’t play, then there is no way the Lions throw the ball more than 26 times.
Green Bay Packers
OveUnder: 3.5 combined TDs scored (+148) in the first half? Prediction: Yes
Even though this prop bet includes both teams, I think the Packers alone will score at least four touchdowns in the first half of their game against the Panthers I mean, the Pack do average 31.5 points per game. I think Green Bay feasts against one of the NFL’s least impressive scoring defenses.
Houston Texans
OveUnder: 2.5 first-half touchdowns allowed by the defense. Prediction: Under
The Texans’ defense is absolute garbage. However, I think they were embarrassed by a Chicago Bears team that was sick of hearing about Deshaun Watson I think last week’s game was an outlier for Houston. The Texans return to form and hold Indy to just two first-half touchdowns this weekend.
Indianapolis Colts
Will the Colts (-225) lead after the first quarter? Prediction: No
As I mentioned before, the Texans were absolutely embarrassed in their last game. I think Houston comes out and hist the ground running on Sunday and manages to score the first points of the game. Let’s not forget that the Colts only won 26-20 when these teams played in week 13.
Jacksonville Jaguars
OveUnder: 1.5 different players attempt a pass for the Jaguars. Prediction: Over
I think this game is going to look a lot like the Jags’ matchup with the Titans In that one, we saw Jacksonville go down big and call in Gardner Minshew to relieve Mike Glennon I think we could see the same thing happen again this weekend. I would also not be surprised to see a trick play that leads to a wide receiver attempting a pass.
Kansas City Chiefs
OveUnder: 0.5 Interceptions thrown by Patrick Mahomes. Prediction: Under
Even though 80% of his INTs have come on the road this season, I think Patrick Mahomes has a mistake-free game against the Saints. Also, the game is being played on turf where Mahomes has thrived (8 TDs to 0 INTs). The Kansas City phenom will have another excellent outing this weekend.
Las Vegas Raiders
Does Derek Carr throw for more than 264.5 passing yards (-113)? Prediction: No
Carr is currently 12th in passing yards this season and averages about 257 passing yards per game. I like his numbers, but I do not like this matchup. The Chargers are seventh in passing yards per game allowed. Therefore, I see the raiders attacking LA on the ground instead of through the air.
Los Angeles Chargers
Will Justin Herbert (-181) throw over 1.5 touchdowns? Prediction: Yes
The rookie QB has not been great so far in the month of December. He was limited to two passing TDs in his last two games. I think he gets back on track this week against a mediocre Las Vegas defense that allows opponents to score 30.1 points per game.
Los Angeles Rams
OveUnder: 4.5 turnovers forced by the Rams’ defense. Prediction: Over
An immovable force meets an incredibly stoppable object when the Rams defense goes up against the Jets’ offense. LA is tied for third in turnovers forced while the Jets are one of the most turnover-prone teams in the NFL. I think the Rams’ front four causes Darnold to see Ghosts once again.
Miami Dolphins
Will the Dolphins (-128) lead after the first quarter? Prediction: No
We all saw how Bill Belichick and the Patriots squashed Justin Herbert so I expect the Pats to give Tua Tagovailoa fits this weekend also. I think New England will force Tua to make an early mistake that will give the Pats the ball in an excellent position to score. Eventually, the Pats will be leading by the end of the first quarter.
Minnesota Vikings
OveUnder: 2.5 Touchdowns scored by Minnesota Wide Receivers. Prediction: Over
The Vikes have a pretty good passing attack. The Tight Ends and Running Backs are fine, but the Wide receivers are excellent. Wide Outs have accounted for 20 of Kirk Cousins 27 touchdowns. I’m taking Thielen and Justin Jefferson to go for at least three TDs in their matchup with Chicago
New England Patriots
Will New England (+115) lead at halftime? Prediction: Yes
As I said, I think the Pats know how to gameplan for rookie QBs. New England will force a few mistakes from Tua, and the Pats will be able to take advantage of good field position. I could see the Patriots going into the half with a three- or four-point lead.
New Orleans Saints
OveUnder: 29.5 pass attempts by Taysom Hill Prediction: Over
Sean Payton has made it clear that Taysom Hill is his number two guy. He is even beginning to get comfortable with him passing the ball more (75 pass attempts in the last two games). I think the Chiefs will be ahead in this game the whole time, so New Orleans will have to throw the ball a lot since they will be playing from behind.
New York Giants
OveUnder: 2.5 Offensive Touchdowns for the Giants Prediction: Under
Offense has not been the Giants strong suit. I guess that’s why they’re 31st in the NFL in scoring. New York’s anemic offense has only registered four touchdowns in the last three games. I don’t see their offense suddenly exploding against a 9-4 Cleveland Browns team. Take the under.
New York Jets
Are the Jets the first team to score (+195)? Prediction: Yes
I’m not crazy. The Jets actually have a good first possession offense. They have scored on their opening drive in their last seven games. I guess it makes it all that much worse that they are 0-13 despite taking an early lead in most games. Gang Green scores first in this one.
Philadelphia Eagles
OveUnder: 90.5 rushing yards for Jalen Hurts Prediction: Under
Hurts gets the nod once again after leading the Eagles to a win over the Saints He had 167 yards through the air and another 106 on the ground. I think he won’t be as effective as he was rushing the ball this week though. The Cardinals know how to defend running QBs since they practice against one every day.
San Francisco 49ers
Does Raheem Mostert rush for at least 48 yards (-112)? Prediction: Yes
The 49ers have been decimated by injuries all season, so the running back position has been a revolving door for San Fran. However, Mostert is clearly the lead man when he is healthy. He leads the team in yards and rushing attempts. I am sure he will go for at least 75 yards against Dallas.
Seattle Seahawks
Will Russell Wilson throw for more than 2.5 Touchdowns (+130)? Prediction: Yes
The Hawks had their get right game against the Jets stomping New York on their way to a 40-3 win. It is clear that Seattle needs Russell Wilson to be amazing if they want to be competitive. It only seems necessary that Wilson throws at least three TDs since their defense can’t stop anybody (except the Jets).
Pittsburgh Steelers
Can the Bengals hold Big Ben to one passing touchdown (+140)? Prediction: No
The Steelers have lost two consecutive games after starting the season 11-0. They head into their matchup with Cincy motivated to right the ship. I‘m sure they will, and it starts with Ben Roethlisberger throwing for AT LEAST three TDs. The last time they played the Bengals he threw four, so I think three makes sense.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
OveUnder: 289.5 passing yards for Tom Brady. Prediction: Over
This is going to be one of those games where the Bucs are going to have to put up a tone of points. I think Atlanta s receivers are good enough to give Tampa Bay nightmares. In conclusion, TB12 is going to have to sling the ball all over the field if the Buccaneers want to be competitive.
Tennessee Titans
Can Derrick Henry go for at least 110.5 rushing yards (-115)? Prediction: Yes
Nobody has been able to stop the freight train that is Derrick Henry The 2019 rushing champ is only eight yards away from surpassing his rushing total from last season. I expect Henry to have a field day against a weak Lions defense that is 29th in rushing yards allowed per game.
Washington Football Team
OveUnder: 1.5 sacks for Chase Young against the Seahawks. PREDICTION: OVER
Chase Young has been wreaking havoc all over the football field this season. The former number two overall pick has recorded 5.5 sacks and 35 tackles so far this season. I expect Young to have two sacks against a Seahawks team that has allowed the fourth-most sacks in the NFL this season.

CreateYoureReality NFL Week 12 Sunday Games Analysis and Picks

Week 11 Recap: Aye! First week I don't post pics here and it's our biggest week of the year! Luckily for us, and all of my private subs that received my gold play, we had a nice win! (56u for us!)
Since I did not post any of my picks in this sub, I will not count them towards this subs win/loss totals. As always, only bets posted prior to game time on this sub count towards my totals so you (the readers) can have as accurate of an ROI (of this subs posts) as possible. That ROI is considerably lower than my private subs, but has been winning since the inception of this sub a few seasons ago. Lets keep the train rolling and finish the year strong! 💪🤑
Singles (0u)
Parlays (0u)
Teasers (0u)
BBDLS (0u)
Hopefully everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving. Now let's get back to work!

Sunday Games

Las Vegas at Atlanta: This week we open up with a game that features last weeks primetime losers. The Raiders lost to the Chiefs last week, but to be honest it was one of the best games I have ever seen Carr play. His focus looked dialed in. However, as is the Raiders current weakness, their defense could not hold off Patty Cakes and the Chiefs on a last minute drive.
Atlanta is also coming off a loss. They were taken down by Taysum Hill and the Saints. Ryan was sacked like a bajillion times and Hill looked...OK.
Both teams have a potent offense and weak-ish defenses. Both teams defenses rank in the top 15 in rush stopping, but in the bottom 3 in pass stopping. This would make you think that there is going to be a ton of passing, a ton of yards, and a ton of points. However, there seems to be heavy sharp action on the Under and the total has even dropped almost a full Field Goal since open.
I am a little nervous as my algo has this game closer to a pick-em than a Raiders road favorite by a FG. However, the Raiders have scored at least 30 in 3 straight, they are protecting Carr well (1 sack in total in last 3) and they are 4-1 ATS on the road this year. My algo does see more value on the Falcons catching points if we are looking at spreads (now that it has crossed to 3) However I can't trust the Falcons (all three of their wins came against losing record teams...Vikings, Panthers, Broncos), and the Raiders were my dark horse this year so I will RAREly take against them.
Give me the Silver and Black to win.

Arizona at New England: This game is quite the conundrum. You would think if NE had playoff aspirations and an opportunity to beat this AZ Cards team that they would have taken care of business last week vs the struggling Texans. However as we saw, they could not.
Arizona is coming off some rest after having played last Thursday in a road loss to the Seahawks.
Who really knows what to expect in this game. The only thing that has me reluctant to hop all over Arizona is NE is home (cold outside weather compared to the AZ dome) and Sony Michel should be back for NE. And it looks like my algo and Vegas algo came up with a similar line as my algo likes AZ 25, NE 23 for a AZ -2 and total (almost the same as what it launched at)
IF this was a normal QB All of that info would have me riding the home team catching the two. However, Belichick notoriously has trouble with mobile QBs(as they are generally harder to scheme against because they have more nodes in their decision tree every play)
So, it seems as if this game is pretty evenly matched and that's most likely why Vegas opened it as a pick-em. Just let the market decide.
Since the winner of the game is close to a coin flip, we will look at other opportunities for wagers here.
Both teams have rushing QBs that are on pace to Challenge the overall best season rush TD leader (Cam Newton at 14) Currently Murray has 10 and Newton has 9. I would be looking for both players to take the opportunity to add to their totals if they are within 10 yards of the red zone.

NY Giants at Cincinnati: So Sad to see Burrow go down. Seriously. Him and Herbert look Fantastic and both (given some decent line play and eventually a defense) should make some runs in the years to come. Good news for the Giants (and anyone betting them) is Burrow was literally Cincinnati's way of winning. Without him, I fear(for Cincy) that they won't have a chance to win another game this year.
The Giants are fresh off a bye and before that an upset win over the Eagles. To be honest, with the way the Giants defense is playing, if Jones can continue to protect the ball on offense this Giants team has a good opportunity to pick up the NFC East. Even if they only win this game and Week17 vs the Cowboys that would put them at 5-10 (but 4-2 in the division) and most likely give them tiebreakers over the Washington and Cowboys if they shared a similar 5-10 record.
With a new QB starting for Cincy I think it is also important to note New York's defense has also held opponents without a touchdown in the first half for three straight games. Also, Mixon is done...Gio B is questionable. This could be a mirror of last weeks score in the Detriot-Carolina game...
Great teaser spot (NYG to win)

Cleveland at Jacksonville: This is one of the scariest favorites I will be riding today. It should be a gimmie game for Cleveland as they build momentum on an easy schedule to finish out the regular season and have a playoff birth. However, this week in particular, their defense is riddle with injury and Covid. Myles Garrett will miss his second consecutive game with coronavirus issues as will linebacker Sione TakiTaki. Cornerback Denzel Ward will also miss a few games with a knee injury. Kevin Stefanski said he expects the Browns to also be without fullback Andy Janovich, and defensive end Joe Jackson, who are on the list. Offensive lineman Chris Hubbard is also on the list, but Stefanski said he "has a chance" to return.
On the other side of the ball we have ANOTHER QB change. This time we will see Mike Glennon. I have NO idea why Jacksonville would do this. Lutton was playing fantastic. I am hoping it is because they would like to keep or improve their position in the draft order and they don't want to make the same mistake they made last year when Mustache Mania got them some press and a win or two, but hurt their draft order.
I would say the most reliable wager to look at in this game would be Chubb and Hunts props. They are the workhorses for this team and I expect Stefanski to utilize them as much as possible as to limit how much time his banged up defense has to spend on the field against a QB they have little to no film on.
Great teaser spot (Cleveland to win)

Carolina at Minnesota: Carolina off delivering a crushing upset to the Lions last week. Minnesota stepping off the Red Rocket ride as they were upset by the Cowboys last week. It is not 100% yet, but it looks like MIN will be without Thielen.
My algo has this one closer to a Pick-em/ Min -1 so it seems rather hard to lay three and the hook vs. a rested Teddy B, returning to face his old team. However, taking Carolina (even though I get the FG and hook) seems like a scary side as MIN has Jacksonville next week and with a win here could easily be 6-6 and it would make for a delicious hyped up match vs the Bears.
Still, if youre going to choose a spread side, my algo is leaning Carolina.
However, my algo is also saying, forget the spread. There is much better value to be found in props. Both of these teams have an offence that can move the ball. Both of these teams have a defense that is suspect. Min has a poor pass defense, while Carolina has a poor rush defense. I would look for the usual for Minnesota (Lean HEAVY on Dalvin Cook with some 2nd half play action passes to Jefferson) But I would also look at Teddy B to come back and have a day throwing against this MIN defense. Possible Same game parlay game.
Great teaser spot (Total Over) Games in Minn this year are averaging 62.8ppg and the o/u is 5-0

Tennessee at Indianapolis: THE REMATCH FOR THE AFC TITLE One of the more exciting match-ups. A repeat of a few weeks ago where the Colts got the best of the Titans. There are a few concerns before picking either side here. First and foremost is the Titans are getting 2/3s of the tickets and money, but the line has only dropped one point and has NOT crossed through 3. Logic would dictate if 70% of the money is on the team getting the FG here that books would lower it to 2.5 and encourage action on the home team, thus balancing the book. The fact that it hasn't yet, is worrisome for looking at TEN.
However on the other side, nine Colts did not practice this week, including offensive linemen Quenton Nelson (back/ankle) and center Ryan Kelly (neck). Defensive backs Rock Ya-Sin (illness), S Khari Willis (ribs/shoulder) S Justin Blackmon (illness) also sat out. DT Buckner, DE Autry and LB Okereke are ALL RULED OUT. Main components of the defense that is holding strong as one of the best this year. This might give Mr. Henry the opportunity to EAT even more than he did in the first match up (like 110 yards in that one) This has me hesitant to look at the Colts. But VERY EXCITED to look at Henry's props.
Great teaser spot (Tenn spread and/or Game total Over) Getting them up over the key numbers in a divisional battle where the Colts defense should be tested missing key players.

LA Chargers at Buffalo: The Chargers have given up 27 or more points in their last six straight games, but are coming off a win vs. the Jets. Herbert, as he has all season, looked fantastic. And the Charger defense, as it has all season, looked like trash. Buffalo hasn't played in two weeks. The last time they did saw them lose on a last second hail-mary pass to D Hop.
So, just like a few of the games today, both teams have decent offenses that can move the ball and sub par defenses that have trouble stopping anyone. Buffalo does have a slight defensive advantage here as they do have a better pass rush than the Chargers.
Buffalo will however be missing a few players for this one. John Brown is still out and offensive lineman Cody Ford was recently injured and will miss the rest of the season.
The Chargers could see a BIG BOOST if Austin Eckler starts in this one. Herbert has already shown he boosts the abilities of the players he is throwing too, if Eckler comes back in, the Chargers could get few wins to end the year.
My algo actually has this game as -1 and a 51 as the total so naturally my algo leans Chargers.
I do fear the fact that the Bills are coming off a hard loss and then a bye, I would be WAY more likely to back the Chargers straight up here if the Bills had Won the game before the bye. Either way, this game looks like a teaser opportunity just like the game before it.
Great teaser spot (LAC spread and/or Game total Over) Like it less if Eckler is not back yet

Miami at NY Jets: Well, well, well. Another Miami game, AND another Jets game. AT THE SAME TIME. Miami looked horrible last week in a loss to the Broncos (which if you read last week, we flagged as a do not bet Miami spot, trap from Vegas) The Jets also lost, but looked much better than they have all season.
This weeks Jets will be a little different, it looks like we are going to see the return of Sam Darnold. Which is interesting to me because halfway though the season I looked at the Jets schedule and thought their most likely games for a win in the back half of the season were weeks 11, 12, and 17. If they were tanking for a QB, wouldn't they still ride with Flacco, not caring about his overall record? I mean, they can still tank with Darnold, but why would they lower his trade value by letting him lose out the season before they trade him and draft a new QB? I feel like it's more likely they are trying to start him to get a win and increase his trade value right before the end of the year. Also, Miami has a decent defense, but their weakest link is their run defense and the Jets just so happen to have an ex-Miami player in FRANK GORE, THE AGELESS WONDER. Is it possible that the Jets get an early lead and lean on Gore to carry them to their first and only win of the season?! Hey, the Jets are winless, BUT they have won the first half in 7 of 10 of their last day games at home. Also, over 80% of the tickets and 75% of the $ is on the Dolphins, yet the line has held steady at 7 and even dropped to 6.5 in some places!! Maybe a little sprinkle sprinkle action? 🤑

New Orleans at Denver: Another scary -6.5 spread. Both of these teams have formidable defenses. Denver's is average to below average, but they seem to do better at home in the altitude. (more than likely its because opposing offenses aren't used to it) This game has one of the lower totals on the day and there is increased RLM on the under. Taysom Hill won his first game, but it wasn't pretty. Now teams can build film on him and it's possible learn to contain him better. Denver has one of the lower red zone scoring allowed and Chubb and Reid are waking up this defense line as the season progresses. This reeealllly seems like the best opportunity for the lowest scoring game of the day and I will look to avoid ALL props in this one EXCEPT team totals and Field Goals.
In such a low scoring game script, I can't help but look at the spread with the home team catching almost a TD, it might also be an opportunity for another sprinkle on the 🐶
Great teaser spot (Game Total Under) Outside of a game with multiple defensive scores, I cant see either team hitting 25 points, teasing the total up to 50 and taking the under seems like a no brainer.
Update: Denver has no QBs. Covid. Dunno if the game will be played now...

San Francisco at LA Rams: No Jimmy G, No George Kittle. It is looking like Samuel and Moestart will be back for San Fran. Rams basically injury free.
San Fran is coming off a bye week and returning some players for a divisional game vs. a team that hasn't beaten them since 2018. You would think it's a no brainer ride with the dog catching points. However, the Rams are looking nice. As predicted as a gold play to my private subs, they took down the Bucs last week and now look to take control of the lead in the NFC West. They are also 4-0 at home since moving to their new stadium and have already toppled the Dallas offence with Dak, the Giants and the Bears defenses, and Seattle and chef Russ.
My algo does lean LA to get the win here and keep their home stadium record undefeated, however with RLM on the Under and most of the bets on LA with the line not moving at all, it is toooo dangerous to lay a full TD in a divisional game.
Great teaser spot (Rams to win) Rams should keep the train rolling and exact revenge for their 2019 season sweep by and this years loss to the 49ers

Kansas City at Tampa Bay: Why the fuck is this not the primetime night game? You're telling me if you are the schedule coordinator you think the public would rather watch the Chi/GB game? Give me a break. Anyway, it is what it is.
KC coming off a beautiful to watch win vs. the Raiders and Tampa Bay coming off a rough loss vs the Rams. Both on primetime last week. As expected 90% of the money is on KC right now... But the line has barely moved.
My algo has this as a 28-27 KC -1 prediction. So you know that means we HAVE to ride with the home team catching a FG and the hook. Besides, Brady has had some struggles this year, but only vs teams that have had a much better pass rush. KC pass rush just let the Raiders put up huge games, the panthers put up a ton...
Give me the Bucs in a bounce back game. With the Chiefs needing another 4th quarter comeback from Mahomey to stay in the race for the top seed in the AFC.
Great teaser spot (Tampa Bay spread) Getting this Brady lead team 10 points safety net in a game they win outright at least 25% of the time? EZ$

Chicago at Green Bay: Above, I asked why this wasn't the 4pm game and KC/TB the night game in this spot? It's because Vegas knows everyone and their mother will have GB ml tied into their Sunday parlays...and the Bears are going to win. 😱🙈
Game opened at 7/7.5 and when Mitch "the Bitch" was named starter it has moved up to 9/9.5. 🤨🤔
However, I think we will actually see Mitch "make you My Bitch"😎 in this game. Bears defense is legit. Probably only 4 or 5 I would place ahead of them. GB has been very unreliable over the last few weeks (loss to minn, ez win vs 49ers, barely win vs Jacksonville ...) I could Easily see the Bears holding Rodgers to 24 or less in this game. That means to cover the spread Mitch only has to score 15? With his defense giving him at least 1 or 2 great field positions... 🤑
My algo has this as GB -4.5 so I have NO Idea why the game opened over a TD AND has moved higher. The only logical guess I can make at that is the public money is all over Green Bay and Vegas loves taking the Bears to cover in this game.

Ravens at Steelers: Will not be written about. Too many variables, just avoid this game.

Seattle at Philadelphia: I will have Seattle Moneyline in any parlays/BBDLS/Teasers. Not only because my algo favors them to win, but because I LOVE having my parlays tied up with the Monday night favorite. When the wagers are still live going into the game, it allows me to make spread hedges with the dog. Also, since I have the favorite, I am most likely getting the best price on the favorite at the beginning of the week, and also the best price on the underdog just before game time. How lucky would it be if we have parlays live going into Monday night with Seattle moneyline and the spread for Philly gets all the way up to +7! Dream hedge opportunity 😍

Singles (68-86, -25.16u)

Cam Newton 42.5 Rush Yards Over (1.06u to win 1u)
Kyler Murray 51.5 Rush Yards Over (1.15u to win 1u)
NYG -9.5 (1u to win 1.48u)
Chubb 85.5 Rush Yards Over (1.4u to win 1u)
Chubb to score and Browns to win (1.05u to win 1u)
Justin Jefferson 73.5 Rec Yards Over (1.37u to win 1u)
Teddy B 255.5 Pass Yards Over (0.55u to win 0.5u)
Robby Anderson 5.5 Rec Over (0.8u to win 0.5u)
Curits Samuel 4.5 Rec (0.5u to win 0.5u)
Eckler Anytime TD (2u to win 2.5u)
Josh Allen Anytime TD (0.5u to win 0.55u)
Keenan Allen 77.5 Rec Yards Over (1.12u to win 1u)
Diggs 84.5 Rec Yards Over (1.18u to win 1u)
Cook and Henry 1TD or more each (1u to win 3u)
NYJ +7 (1.1u to win 1u)
NYJ ml (0.5u to win 1.3u)
NYJ 1H ml (1u to win 1.85u)
NO/DEN First to 25 points: Neither (2u to win 2.4u)
NO/DEN First to 25 points: Neither (0.5u to win 2.15u)
TB +3.5 (1.1u to win 1u)
TB ml (1u to win 1.6u)
Brady and Mahomes 2+ TDs each (2.5u to win 2.5u)
Bears +9.5 (2.2u to win 2u)
Mitch T Anytime TD (0.5u to win 3.5u)
Mitch T First TD scorer (0.5u to win 20u)
Mitch T Rush Yards Over
Allen Robinson 65.5 Rec Yards Over \ These two aren't in yet, looking for lines. If I find it and bet it I will post in comments**

Parlays (6-23, +37.76u)

NYG ml, CLE ml, Bears (FB to win 7.07u)
NYG ml, CLE ml, LV ml, LAR ml, SEA ml (~~25u~~ 0u to win 98.8u) This is part of a promo. If a loss, the bet is returned in cash.
I have a few more in, all FreeBees

Teasers (2-2, +27.38u)

LAC O44.5, CAR O44.5, CLE 0, LAR 0 (4u to win 11.59u)

BBDLS (0-50, -41.89u)

I have a few in, but all but 3 (2.2u) are with bonus dollars or free bets. Feels like a good week 😉

Thank you for Reading. Good luck to everyone!

CreateYoureReality NFL Week 6 Sunday Games Analysis and Picks (And Week 5 Recap)

Week 5 Recap: Look at us, putting in another solid card, right on que. As I have said in previous years, weeks 1-4 are usually a little high variance, but weeks 5-14 are where the data collection yields it's fruits. Thursday was fantastic, we picked the underdog upset and went 4-0 on the night. Sunday was also a positive day. We were VERY close to some big boy daddy long shots. I feel confident that they will show a return eventually, they are just a long term play. Our teaser was 1 off, that tends to happen with teasers over 3/4 picks so nbd. Overall a good building week. Let's keep this train rolling!
Singles (9-8, +5.6u)
Parlays (2-1, +19.6u)
Teasers (0-1, -5u)
BBDLS (0-8, -6.8u)

SUNDAY GAMES

Chicago at Carolina: Bears coming off a win over the Bucs and some extra days rest. Carolina also coming off a win (3 game win streak) where they were underdogs. At the beginning of the week when the lines were released I jumped on the Bears +3 And the Ml +120 for 2u and 1u respectively. However, the more research that was done, the more I like Carolina. Neither of these teams are proven winners yet as all of their wins have come against losing teams. Carolina is like TEN in that they aren't flashy, they just are well coached, execute properly and do their best to minimize mistakes while forcing the other team to WIN the game. As we have seen when they face a team that can win, that team does win. But if they face teams that have trouble getting the win...Carolina out executes them and wins comfortably. The main problem I see Carolina having when losing is they settle for too many field goals in the red zone. (27th in red zone efficiency, scoring touchdowns on just 10 of its 20 red zone trips) Unfortunately for them, this is the Bears defensive strength. They are currently No. 1 in the red zone and No. 2 on third down.
A side story I am looking at in this game is running back Mike Davis returning to CHI (the team that drafted him and then let him go). He has been running as an unstoppable force these last 3 games and I look for it to mostly continue. I do think against this bears front he is more likely to get his action through receptions and YAC than through handoffs.

Detroit at Jacksonville: This one should be simple (I feel like I say that a lot for Detroit write ups) Detroit is coming off a bye and this is the perfect time to put together some wins. They have a VERY favorable schedule coming up but to have any shot at catching Green Bay or Chicago need to take care of the easy ones. This week and next week are those games.
Jacksonville is coming off another loss, this one to the previously winless Texans. Their main problem is defense. They have given up 30+ to every team in their losing streak and the only team they beat was, IMO a bad QB. (Late age Phillip Rivers in a season opener with no preseason) Bad news for them, as mentioned, the Lions are coming off a bye week and have now returned previously injured players. Look for Adrian Peterson to have a day and keep an eye out for the return of Kenny Galloday.
My algo likes this game for an over and so I put in a Same game parlay on Fanduel for half a unit. It is a BBDLS to win +150u. There are a few games to look at same game parlays on, and with the way both of these two teams have played defensively, this is definitely one of those games.
Side note, this was a pretty detailed video explaining why the Lions will defeat the Jags: https://youtu.be/7RVcmu3fHeM

Atlanta at Minnesota: Failcons blew another one. They started out exactly as I predicted, leaning heavy on Gurley and blitzing Teddy B, getting a lead... but then they just stalled. Now... Quinn is gone.
Minnesota played a hell of a game week 5 and gave themselves every opportunity to win. They just didn't convert in a key spot and gave Russ the chance to win it...and that's what he did. Based on team vs team matchup, we would expect the Vikings to take this one. Cousins has had a rough first few matchups, but a shitty Falcons D could be his elixir back to at least an average form. Cook is out, but Mattison is a very capable backup that has replaced Cook well. The key to this one will be MIN D. It was able to slow Russ down last week, finally showing signs of cohesion, but once crunch time came, they fell apart. Can they keep climbing, back to a normal form? Or will Matt Ryan look to prove it was Quinn and his leadership that held him back and come out and win this one.
Personally I am a huge fan of betting on a team when they get an interim coach. We took Houston last week, and they rolled nicely. Here is what interim coach Raheem Morris had to say, "At the end of the day, we have to find a way to put our foot on people's throats and end games," Morris said. "That's what has got to happen."
Feels like he knows his defense is trash and he's going to be very loosey goosey with his play calling this week. This is another game my algo likes the over in and has potential for Same game parlays on player props.

Houston at Tennessee: Houston broke the winless streak and the curse of Obrien has been lifted. They looked good, but let's keep in mind that was vs a sinking Jacksonville team. Tennessee, as predicted and given as a play to my premium subscribers, continued the winning ways and crushed the Bills in a Tuesday game! Now on short rest return home to take on the Texans in an important divisional match up.
This is tough because TEN is coming off a shorrrrrt week. After playing Tuesday night, that only leaves them 4 days of travel, rest, game planning, and the tons of Covid protocols to go through. I feel like as the better, complete team, they have the overall advantage given all things neutral. However with the increased energy for the Houston team after the coaching chances and first win and the short week for TEN defense to recover, my algo leans a HOU cover and possible win.

Washington at NY Giants: Whelp, Washington went exactly like I wrote last week, haha. We got to see Alex Smith! Seriously though, Kyle Allen looked pretty legit in the first quarter. He was a Full participant in practice on Friday and looks to be good to go for this one. On the other side Daniel Jones is just not progressing. Last week the Giants put up over 30 points and Jones threw 0 TDs. HOW ARE THE GIANTS FAVORITES?!
I feel like Rivera's thought process is...if we can win the next 3 games, (2 against an 0-5 team and 1 vs. the worst defense in the league right now) we are 4-4 and 4-0 in the division. With another divisional game vs the depleted eagles still to be played this season. I expect Rivera to unleash some early deep balls and pressure the shit out of Jones.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh: 17 years since a Browns win in Pittsburg. Cleveland did well for us last week and got the upset vs the Colts. They are looking like the Titans, establish a good run game, have the QB make manageable throws, take a few shots, play above average D.
The Steelers are 4-0 and their defense is averaging 3+ sacks(5 PER) and 1+ INT per game this year...but who have they played? winless Giants, and three one win teams in the Eagles, Texans, and Broncos...
The major weakness to the Steeler D is that they are allow teams to convert a whopping 50% on third down.

Baltimore at Philadelphia: Ehhhh, another one of those game I don't want to touch. Outside of the win vs the 49ers, I don't know what is keeping this line between 7-9.5. I am not sure why it didn't open closer to 10 than 7. Usually when something like this happens it's a flag for me to stay away or take the dog. However Philly? I'd rather lay money on the Jets ml than the Phl ml right now

Cincinnati at Indianapolis: Cincy lost what looked to be a blowout vs the ravens. But if you look closer, their defense played surprisingly well against one of the better offenses in the league. Burrow was again sacked like 47 times and the offense had trouble getting anything going. The Colts are coming off a loss to the Browns where its now becoming glaringly obvious that Old man Rivers is getting too old to be a starting QB for a team with this good of a defense and this good of an offensive line. I mean shit, you put Sam Darnold in this team and I bet he looks twice as good as Rivers. This will be an interesting game and I am excited to see Burrow get his second win ;)

Green Bay at Tampa Bay: BATTLE OF THE BAYS 4-0 Packers traveling to Florida to take on the 3-2 Bucs. Both teams off rest with the Packers coming off a bye week and the Bucs playing the previous TNF. The Packers are getting Davante Adams and Mercedes Lewis back. The Bucs are getting back almost there whole offense in Godwin, Evans, and Fournette. Honestly, my algo has this game as TB -2.5. It targets the Bucs pass rush as being the difference maker in this one. When under pressure Rodgers goes from a passer rating of 141.1 and a completion % of 80 with 9.4 YPA all the way to a 68.8 passer rating with a completion % of 34.6 and 6YPA. So far this season the GB O line has protected Rodgers well. However, they have yet to face a formidable pass rush with their only challenges being MIN and NO, both shells of their former defenses.

LA Rams at San Francisco 49ers: The Rams are turning into a very nice team this year. I have been high on them all season, and I will continue smoking that dooby for this game. Don't get me wrong, there is a reason this game is only 3.5 even though the Rams blew out their last opponent and the 49ers GOT blown out, but the Rams this year feel like the 49ers of last year. Stout defense, a committee of running backs, both of those elevating average QB play to above average. As you can see, without the dominant running game and stout defense, Jimmy G (or whoever plays QB for the previous SB finalist 49ers) struggles.

NY Jets at Miami: No analysis for this one. I am skipping it except for some small plays on the Jets. I am not confident enough in MIA to take them as a large favorite. I am not comfortable enough in Joe Flaco to take him at this point in his career for any large amount. But, this is the NFL and any given Sunday so I feel there is always a little value on massive dogs that the public is against.

Denver at New England: Both of these teams have been off the field so long, how can we know what to expect? Who is even QB for both of these teams? Is Cam back and if so, is he healthy? Personally I think it shouldn't matter too much for the overall winner of the game. You give me Billy B with two weeks to prepare and I'll take him coach for the Falcons over this Denver team. But the spread is a decent amount of points to cover with little knowledge on the status of the players. Outside of some ml parlays, I will be avoiding this game.

***I put in a few bets at the beginning of the week to start getting the best of numbers I like. Sometimes my fade switches as I learn more info throughout the week. The bets with \** were all placed at the beginning of the week, so tail those with caution.*

Singles (29-30, -2.56u)

CHI +3 (2.4U to win 2u) \*\**
Mike Davis 5.5 Rec Over (1u to win 1.22u)
Mike Davis Anytime TD (1.6u to win 1u)
Mike Davis 58 Rec Yards (1u to win 1.95u)
CHI/CAR Total Field Goals Made 3.5 Over (4u to win 5u)
DET Team Total 27.5 Over (2.3u to win 2u)
HOU +4 (2.13u to win 2u)
HOU ml (1u to win 1.75u)
WAS +3 (2.4u to win 2u) **\*
WAS ml (1.5u to win 1.88u) **\*
WAS HT ml/FT ml (1u to win 2.2u)
CLE +4 (2.2u to win 2u) **\*
CLE ml (1u to win 1.6u) **\*
Kareem Hunt anytime TD (2.75u to win 2u)
B. Roethlisberger & C. Wentz 1 or more Passing TDs Each (1u to win 1u)
CIN + 7.5 (1.1u to win 1u)
TB ml (1u to win 1.15u) **\*
NYJ ml (1u to win 3.2u) **\*
NYJ +9.5 (2.2u to win 2u) **\*
DAL ml (1u to win 1.2u) **\*
I have many more plays that are going out to my subscribers. Most of them are the props I found +EV. The targeted games are DET/JAX, ATL/MIN, CLE/PIT, AND AZ/DAL.

Parlays (2-11, -14.09u)

CLE HT ml/FT ml, BAL ml, IND ml (2u to win 11.22u) **\*
WAS 1h +1.5, BAL ml, DET ml, IND ml (2.5u to win 9.9u)
DET ml, WAS ml, TBml (0u to win 57.57u) SugarHouse had a deposit promo this weekend. This is the FreeBet from that promo.
HOU +7.5, CIN +8.5, CLE/PIT 44.5 OVER, NYJ +10.5 (5u to win 42.16u) 50% Odds Boost on this one
BAL ml, DET ml (3.2u to win 3u)

Teasers (1-4, +23.85u)

WAS +7.5, CLE +9.5, HOU +10, DAL +7.5 (4.5u to win 10u)
WAS +7.5, CLE +9.5, HOU +10, DAL +7.5, NE -1, TB +8, DET +3.5, NE -1 (3u to win 21u)

BBDLS (0-27, -22.57u)

We have another 7 of these rocking for a total of 6.42u wagered.

CreateYoureReality NFL Week 9 Sunday Games Analysis and Picks

Week 9 TNF Recap: Pretty standard game with the 49ers missing half their team. GB won easily and our lone wager is still alive for the Sunday games. Lets see what opportunities we have available to us this week! 🙂
Singles (u)
Parlays (u)
Teasers (Still live)
BBDLS (u)

SUNDAY GAMES

Seattle/Buffalo: Alrighty! First match up of the day and its my Super bowl predicted team. A West coast team traveling east for a 1pm game. Usually a look at the East coast team. However Seattle and Wilson are 18-6 in the last 24 1pm East coast starts, winning their last 10 in a row! The Seahawks have covered five of their last seven games and have won 10 of their last 12 games as a road favorite. In player news, "All-Pro Safety Jamal Adams, Seattle's biggest offseason acquisition, is expected to return Sunday after missing four games with a groin injury. Two-time Pro Bowl defensive end Carlos Dunlap is set to make his Seahawks debut after being acquired in a trade last week with Cincinnati and defensive tackle Damon "Snacks" Harrison, another former Pro Bowler, is close to being in game shape after being signed as a free agent.
On the other side, Buffalo is coming off a narrow divisional win vs New England and has only covered once in their last 5 games. "Bills center Mitch Morse was knocked out on the third play against the Patriots and remains in the concussion protocol. Receiver John Brown (knee), defensive end Jerry Hughes (foot) and cornerback Josh Norman (hamstring) have also missed practice time this week."
The Bills and Allen started the year hot with a 12-1 TD/INT ratio in the first 4 game. Only to throw a 4/4 ratio in the last 4 games.
There is great weather for a northeast game in November and with all the news and trends it would look like an easy spot to take SEA and the Over. The scary thing about committing to that is the MAJORITY of bets on this game are on SEA and the over...But, every time the line hits 3, it wont cross to 3.5 and most often doesnt stay at 3 for long. Also, the total opened at 55.5 but has RLM to as low as 54 in some books! The only other reason I can see for SEA possibly playing a flat game is that they just played 2 divisional games and after this have two more (one being the rematch of their only loss so far) With this game being non-conference AND SEA having it squeezed in between 4 divisional games, maybe I could see them spending more effort on the divisional games?
Either way, my algo has this as 27 24 SEA with the most favorable prop to target as Cole Beasley (SEA D is weak, but its WEAKEST point is vs slot receivers and WTF are these lines, 4.5 REC and 50 yards? Hes averaging 5 Rec and 60+ yards per game...)

DenveAtlanta: Next up we have a rather pointless game (for playoff implications). ATL is off a win on TNF and some extra rest. Denver is coming of a huge 2nd half comeback with a last second score to win a divisional home game as a dog. The Broncos are also 3-1 in their last 4 games, with their only loss to KC. (2-1 of those games came on the road). Atlanta hasn't won a game at home yet this year. My algo has this as a 24-26 ATL. I believe this game has potential to be one by BOTH teams. So, with the clearly better defense and catching more than 4, I think it's a good spot for DEN. Possibly a sprinkle game too! 😉

Chicago/Tennessee: This is the match-up of the pretenders. Two teams that the model is not sure if they are contenders or pretenders. CHI put in Foles when they were 3-0. Now they are 5-2. Their offense has got to find some continuity. Only averaging 20ppg it might be able to find some life vs a TEN defense that is quite suspect. They have made some changes recently and will be starting new pieces. Could be the perfect opportunity for Foles to get some stats on the sheet because TEN d-line has been very weak, rarely sacking opposing QBs this year. They will need every bit of Foles because the Bears run offense has been horrrrrible this year. Let's put it this way, TEN's Derrick Henry outrushes the Bears by himself on a per-game basis.
My algo has this as TEN -1 with a total of 50. Looks like I'll be leaning CHI on the bounce back.
Side note: I've said it before, ill mention it again. There's almost always an upset and it usually comes from the games that are 6/6.5 spread. Books seem to squeeze this in every week somehow to take care of people's teasers. This weeks candidates CHI, JAX, NYJ
Something interesting to note, majority of bets are on TEN yet the line hasn't moved from 6.5 to 7. . .

Detroit at Minnesota: Ehhhh, a very weird one. It has been off the board most of the week because we are not sure if Stafford is going to play. He is under a Covid protocal for close contact. He will be tested daily up until Sunday morning. If he is negative he will most likely play, if he tests positive he will obviously be out.
Outside of the Stafford storyline we have some revenge game stuff. Everson Griffen and AP returning to MIN, and I think MIN has some DET players now.
My algo has this as a Pickem being very game script dependent. I likes whoever gets a lead as it favors their defense to go for more on the pass rush.
I would say that Stafford being in will be the most important news to follow. If he is out I may look for a small teaser on MIN and the Under as I expect them to lean on Cook again. However, if Stafford plays I think this is a great spot to take the Lions and even a sprinkle on the money line.
Again, if Stafford is in I would look to some Lions props as MIN D is still a poopshow. With Galloday out, Look for Hall and Hockenson to get the extra targets. Also, if Stafford plays the Lion's have been coming out FIRE in the first quarter.
Check in the comments Sunday before game time to see who I took based upon the Stafford news.

Baltimore at Indianapolis: Back to back weeks Baltimore in a big AFC matchup. Last week was frustrating not only for us (BAL losing hurt) it was probably extremely frustrating for BAL. They outgained the Steelers nearly 2:1 in yards! They rushed on the Steelers Super AMAzeballs defense for over 250 yards! If not for FOUR very costly turnovers by Lamar, that would have been an ez BAL victory.
This is where it gets weird. When I compare the stats in my algo they are nearly identical and it spits out this game as a Pickem. However, something to note that I have not added in as weight on my algos calculations is strength of opponents. Which on wins, is not much for either team. However, on losses, they do have two common opponents (CLE and CIN). Both of which BAL SMASHED and one of which is INDys losses.(CLE)
Normally I would say this is a BAL all day game and if we see this match up in the playoffs I would most likely (barring some weird injury news) take BAL then. HOWEVER, this has been a weird week for BAL with like 7 defensive players on the COVID protocol list. To go with that, the whole BAL team has been restricted from practicing until SAT. Which means they got SAT practice in an have to travel to play tomorrow.
With all that said, this might be a game to contrary myself. However, with BAL being the more publicly bet team it might be more prudent to wait until closer to game time. Try to catch another +3 with IND or wait to take them at +2.5 in a teaser.

Carolina at Kansas City: CMC is back Baby! Haha. This should be a very interesting one. KC has been on a tear recently winning back to back games by more than 25. Carolina is off a tough primetime divisional loss to ATL last week that basically told you they don't want the last playoff spot.
Surprisingly my algo has this as 30-24 KC.
I am going to have to say this game will be largely dependent on CMCs health, productivity, and if CAR can keep pace or get a lead early. If so, KC does have the fourth-worst run defense in football with teams averaging 142.8 yards per game against them. AND even if they pull a lead, maybe there is some back door potential? CAR has only 1 loss this year by more than 10 points...

Houston at Jacksonville: Oh boy. . . Do you even wanna watch this game? Houston is coming off a bye and has had two weeks to prepare for a rematch against the team that gave them their only win this year. The difference in this game? JAX is starting a new 24 year old QB for his first start. And, they are giving him a defense that has given up at least 30 points in every game except one.
My algo has this as only HOU -4.5. However there is no adjustment in there for the QB change.
I expect JAX to help their fresh starting QB out as much as he can by giving the ball as much as they can to their RB. My algo marks this as a FANTASTIC spot to target Robinson in total yards rush+rec as not only will he have his normal workload against a horrible defense, but he will get the extra work that comes from the coaches trying to simplify the game for their QB.

NYG at Washington: Ugh, another dumpster fire game. NY played on Monday night and barely lost to the TB Bucs. Washington is off a bye. I want little to no part of this game. My algo has WAS as -2.5 but it also had WAS as -1 in the first match up. The NYG defense is on the rise and Danny Dimes seems to come out vs. the Washington Team. If anything, I would say WAS needs it more. They have one of the better chances to win the NFC East if they can pick up this game. (They have an easier back half of the schedule than most of the other teams)

LV at LAC: Sooo, LV is one of my favorite teams this year. I think they are building something real and I expect Gruden to take them deep in the playoffs in the next 3 years. Currently they are still in build mode, especially on defense, but Carr and the offense are starting to find some rhythms. Jacobs doesn't seem to be as good as his rookie year suggested but there's time to draft in that position. They are coming off a rough crap weather grind game vs. the Browns, where they came out the victor.
The Chargers also look like a great team for the future. I think once they get a change at head coach and redevelop their defense, they too could have something. They are coming off a last second comeback loss to the Broncos. Actually, they have been leading in most of their losses, only to give it up in the 4th. Herbert looks like a beast and his timing with Allen appears strong.
My algo has this as LAC -1 and I think this games about as coin flip as you can get. Both have above average offense and below average defense. I think I am going to lean LAC 1Q as they are home and have been coming out strong the last few games. However, if I catch this game live I will look to bet whoever's live spread gets 7+

Pittsburgh at Dallas: Not really feeling this is a game that has much value. PIT could easily blowout dallas 34-6. Dallas is about to start there 23 quarterback. Their D gives up 33+ per game. And oh btw, PIT is 7-0 with wins over the Titans and Ravens.
Why I won't take PIT is mostly the same reasoning. Dallas is starting an unknown at QB. DAL is 2-6 and PIT has a divisional game next week vs an opponent currently on a bye. This is PITs 3rd road game in a row. How much has the travel been wearing on the mental state.
I am just going to avoid this game.

Miami at Arizona: Well well well, looks like that MIA +3.5 play last week was good TUA TIME-ing! Seriously though, TUA did next to nothing in that game. Like almost 0. But that MIA defense.... WHOOO weeeeeeee
Both teams are coming into this game riding a 3 game winning streak. AZ is coming off a bye and has waayyyy the better offense. MIA comes into this game off a big upset vs the LA Rams and has a much better defense.
Again, I dont know if we can trust TUA yet. A home game vs a team traveling 3000 miles to play a 1pm start was tough enough. Now he has to travel across the country for his first road start? On a positive note, he will be playing indoors...
I think ill mostly avoid here.

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTABALL

New Orleans at Tampa Bay: The matchup of the Day. NO comes into this game riding a 4 game winning streak. However it is important to note that 3 of those wins came against teams with a below .500 record and all 4 of the wins were by less then a TD.
TB comes into this game riding a 3 game win streak but their most recent win was on Monday night (short week) vs the Giants in which it was close all game and NY had a chance to send the game into OT. Not something you want to see. It could be that the team overlooked NY in preparation for this game. Knowing that winning their division is more important than a game vs the Giants.
We should see the debut of Antonio Brown in this one. Currently I have found him at +162 to score a TD and +1200 to score the first TD. Might throw a free bet on one of those just for a fun sweat.

New England at NYJ: Not going to lie, this was going to be my upset of the year. Pats having almost 0 offensive weapons outside of Cams run game. Jets only real strength is stopping the run. Pats D is NOT what we are used to. The amount of missed tackles happing has to make Bellichek SICK. Darnold, at home, with the probably better defense, catching over a TD?!
However, Darnold now appears to be out. I still think NY has good EV to cover, especially with the extra FG, as both teams should struggle to put u any points. However, the upset just feels so much harder as Flacco is VERY low raked in my algo's QB index.

Singles (52-65, -19.01u)

Cole Beasley 50.5 Rec Yards Over (3.15u to win 3u)
DEN +4.5 (2.2u to win 2u)
DEN ml (2u to win 3.5u)
Noah Fant 4.5 Rec Over (1.4u to win 1u)
Jerry Judy 47.5 Rec Yards Over (2.8u to win 2u)
CHI +6.5 (2u to win 2u)
CHI TT 20 Over (2.1u to win 2u)
Allen Robinson 72.5 Rec Yards Over (1.11u to win 1u)
DET 1Q +0.5 (FB to win 2.12u)
DET +3.5 (1.1u to win 1u)
Will Fuller anytime TD (FB to win 3.3u)
Brandin Cooks 4.5 Rec Over (1u to win 1u)
James Robinson 22.5 Rec Yards Over (3.45u to win 3u)
James Robinson 102.5 Rush and Rec Yards Over (1.2u to win 1u)
James Robinson 3.5 Rec Over (1.5u to win 1u)
Terry McLaurin 72.5 Rec Yards Over (2.3u to win 2u)
LAC 1Q ml (2.4u to win 2.04u)
Keenan Allen 6.5 Rec Over (2.5u to win 2u)
Keenan Allen 75.5 Rec Yards Over (2.4u to win 2u)
Kyler Murray 40.5 Rush Yards Over (2.8u to win 2u)
Antonio Brown 1st TD scorer (2u to win 22u) Promo, if he scores not the first TD, but any other TD, the bet is returned.

Using up some free bets this week. They are long parlays and BBDLS so I am not going to type them all out. If something hits or is sweating into SNF, I will post.
Parlays (6-20, +43.76u)

CHI +6, WAS, ml, HOU ml (2u to win 6.22u)
DEN ml, SEA ml, TB ml (2u to win 12.24u)
CHI +6.5, DEN ml, SEA ml, CAR +10, LAC +3.5, PIT ml, TB ml (2.5u to win 97.83u)
I have a few parlays in for another 2.6u and some Free Bets.

Teasers (1-2, +16.35u)

GB pk***,*** DEN +10.5 (FB to win 11.03u)

BBDLS (0-41, -33.99u)

I have 1.7u of BBDLS in and some FB wagers.

CreateYoureReality NFL Week 8 Sunday Games Analysis and Picks

Week 7 Recap: Week 7 was a mess. I didn't have time to commit to a full article and my single suffered because of it. Fortunately we hit our 1pm parlay. Side note, we were Seahawks winning away from a BBDLS! Start tailing, we will deliver a Big Boy soon! 🤓
Singles (6-8, -3.1u)
Parlays (1-3, +17.09u)
Teasers (none)
BBDLS (0-2, -2.2u)

SUNDAY GAMES

Indianapolis at Detroit: We start of the day with one of the more interesting match ups. Seems like an normal non conference match up, but both of these teams are looking to build some moment and give themselves a shot at a wild card spot. I know, we are only in week 8. But the Lions need every win they can get and the Colts schedule is about to get much harder.
The Colts do have the better record and the rest advantage in this one, coming off a bye. However, they have benefitted from a very easy schedule to open the 2020 season. Their four wins have come against teams with a combined 7-19-1 record. And their struggles have come on the road (1-2, losses to the Jaguars and Browns).
Detroit is looking to get above .500 and be relevant in their division (btw they are like +1200 right now to win the north and they have a real soft spot in the schedule ahead...) They are coming off a last second TD win vs Atlanta and the vibes are flowing.

Minnesota at Green Bay: Battle for the NFC North. GB comes into this game off an easy win in Texas. Their offense again could not be stopped. It has looked monstrous this year, however looking closer it put up 40.7 ppg on 459.7 ypg over their first three games, but has averaged just 327.7 ypg and 25 ppg over their last three games and Aaron Jones is still out. On the other side, the GB secondary hasn't been very good. To make matters worse on the defensive side of the ball, 6 players (YES SIX) from the linebacking core are listed QUES.
On the other side, we have the crap storm of the Vikings. The offense has started the season slow, they are 1-5 and have been abysmal on defense this year. On a positive note they are coming off a bye and get Dalvin Cook back this week. He was almost irrelevant in the first match up as GB got out to such an early lead, MIN running the ball was not a play called.
Forecasts for Sunday are calling for high winds in Green Bay and my Algo has this as only GB -3/3.5. We are looking at MIN coming out faster with the added rest and game planning. If that game scrip plays out, it should give MIN the advantage to utilize Cook more than the first match up and allow MIN some opportunities to score and cover. With that game script the algo likes Cook props and Cousins to have a high rate of success on his play action drops.

New England at Buffalo: Another divisional game, this one could have actual implications on the AFC East winner. With a win here, NE can erase the last few weeks of poor performances and positive covid tests and game reschedules and restricted practices. Again, we should have another poor weather game as Winter is Coming. If this wasn't such a weird year I would say easy win for NE. Mcdrmit hasn't beaten Bellichek yet as coach of the Bills and three of those losses have come with Allen as the starter. In the six career games against the Patriots the Bills have scored: 17, 16, 12, 10, 6, 3. That's 10.7 points per game (The three games that Allen started, the Bills scored 17, 12 and 10).
However, this isn't a normal year and this isn't the normal Pats. Their run defense has been shit, giving up 132 rushing yard per game and their offense......Well. Only time will tell if this recent offensive slump is a blip because of covid and Cam or if Cam really is just done and NE is going to have to rebuild. My algo has this flagged as a heavy under game, however the value on that may be missed as the total has dropped nearly a TD since open. Still in a cold, divisional game, predicted under, I still see value on the the team catching points.

Tennessee at Cincinnati: WTF is this line movement?! This is one of the crazier spreads/totals for me. My algo see this as a PK/TEN-1 with a Total of 54.5. The markets opened up around 3.5/55.5. Fairly reasonable as TEN is a one loss team and CIN is a 1 win team. However as the week progressed the money is 90/80 on TEN and the spread has moved up to -7 in most places. with the total having RLM and dropping?! I know CIN has Mixon and some offensive linemen out but DAMN, up to 7!? Five of Tennessee’s six games this year have been decided by a possession or less, they are 2-5 ATS in the last seven games... ANNNNDD Cincinnati has covered in five of its last six games... Couple this with TEN coming off a hard loss to PIT AND they have a shitty secondary. I don't see how Burrow and the Bengals don't keep this game within one score. Personally I think this game is worth a little sprinkle on the moneyline!!
*Yes, I know the Titans have Henry and the Bengals have one of the worst run defenses. But TEN offense vs CIN defense isn't the only matchup in the game.\*

Las Vegas at Cleveland: Two teams that I think will be fighting for an AFC wildcard spot behind the Steelers come the end of the year. LV is coming off a loss to Tampa Bay, but were in the game until a disaster of a 4th quarter. Cleveland is coming off a last second win over divisional rivals the Bengals but lost OBJ in the process. Chubb is still out but Hunt has been covering well in the RB department.
My algo has this as a PK so I can't help but look at the LV side. Both of these teams have horrible secondaries and I will be looking at this game for a SGP.
Sidenote, CLE last 2 seasons as a favorite they are 6-8-1and as a favorite of 4 of less they are 2-5-1 ATS.

New York Jets at Kansas City: Seriously, just like last week's Jets game, not much to say. Record points spread. Why do I want to touch this? They covered vs the Bills last week, but KC? At home? And do I want to bet on a team favored by 3 TDs? Just skip this game except for KC in your survivor pools. (Except maybe look at Bell revenge game against the Jets?)

LA Rams at Miami: Rams are coming off an impressive win against the Bears, but now travel East for a 1pm game on a short week. MIA is coming off back to back wins AND a BYE week. However, even with that momentum, the head coach thinks it's Tua Time for a change. So this week, MIA will have it's recent draft pick starting at QB over Fitzmagic. Does this mean the people at MIA know that NE is going to win and they have a shot tooo? OR does it mean they think BUF has this division wrapped up, so they might as well give next years QB some real game time? Only time will tell I guess.
Surprising to me, my algo actually has this game as a Pickem/ MIA -1 and it favors a low scoring affair. Another surprise is the majority of the money is on LA yet the spread hasn't budged. This is usually a clear sign for me to ride with the dog, however I don't know anything about TUA. My algo thinks Fitzmagic is in. So I am not sure how to proceed here.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore: Here we are. One of the potential AFC Championship matchups. Undefeated PIT heading into 5-1 Baltimore for an AFC North showdown. Pittsburgh Came out strong vs the Titans last week, but in the second half flipped and almost gave the game away. The Ravens are coming off a bye and while their offense isn't putting up MVP type numbers like last year, they are still getting the job done.
To me this one is simple. PIT is the hot team right now, public perception is through the roof. They are now on their second back to back road game taking on Harbaugh off a bye and unfortunately for the Steelers he Ravens 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS after bye under him.
Now, you might say, " Create, what about that Pitt defense?! They are 6-0 for a reason!"
To which I would say, in his career, Lamar is 3-0 vs top 5 defenses, one being the PATs last year.

LA Chargers at Denver: A divisional game between two teams at the bottom looking up. The next few years should be interesting for these teams. Id say the Chargers have a higher ceiling, but only time will tell. My algo has LA as -1.5 for this one so no heavy leans.

New Orleans at Chicago: NO coming off a big comeback win in a divisional game. Chicago coming off a loss on MNF and now a short week. My algo actually has this as CHI PK/-1. Im guessing the line is so far different because of the MNF loss? Either way, a home team with a good defense, catching points...Sign me up

I am leaving SNF and MNF off for now. It is 10am and I would like to post with enough time for you guys to utilize and enjoy.

I have about 30u of Free Bets to use over the next 4 weeks. Im sure they will get sprinkled mostly in the parlay section.
Singles (44-53, -10.59u)

DET +3 (2u to win 2u)
MIN 1Q +0.5 (2.2u to win 2u)
MIN Team Total over 21 (3.3u to win 3u)
MIN first to 10 points (1u to win 1.4u)
MIN +7 (1.25u to win 1u)
Kirk Cousins to have a Passer Rating of 110+ (1u to win 1u)
Dalvin Cook 75+ Rushing Yards & to Score a TD (2u to win 2.4u)
Lamar Jackson & Cam Newton 50 or more Rushing Yards Each (1.5u to win 2.78u)
CIN +7.5 (2.4u to win 2u)
Joe Burrow 275+ Pass Yards & AJ Green 75+ Receiving Yards (2u to win 3.25u)
Joe Burrow to have a Passer Rating of 115+ (1u to win 2u)
CIN Team Total 21 Over (2.2u to win 2u)
AJ Green 53.5 total receiving yards Over (1.5u to win 1.3u)
A.J. Green 104 receiving yards Over (0.5u to win 1.95u)
MIA 1Q +0.5 (2.65u to win 2u)
BAL ml (11u to win 6u) \This is under a First Bet free roll promo. If it loses, I get the wager back\**
PIT Team Total 20 Under (2.1u to win 2u)
BAL to lead FH/FT (1.5u to win 1.5u)
Mark Andrews & Jarvis Landry to Score a TD Each (2u to win 11.75u)
Darren Waller Anytime TD (1u to win 1.25u)
George Kittle Anytime TD (1u to win 1u)

Parlays (5-18, +2.5u)

The stArt of War - Patriots(+4.5), Lions(+3.5) & Vikings(+6.5) @ +550 (0.5u to win 2.75u)
KC ml, TB ml, CHI ml, BAL ml, CIN +8.5, MIN +8.5, LV +3.5 (FB to win 129.94u)
TB ml, CIN +10.5, LV +4.5., MIN +10.5, BAL +4.5, CHI +8.5 (FB to win 42.76u)
Prop play with Waller, Kittle, Robinson, Jefferson, and Keenan Allen (1u to win 36.41u)

Teasers (1-2, +16.35u)

None this week, however good candidates are DET, LV, CHI, NE and the UNDER (before it dropped a TD) and the LAMIA Under.

BBDLS (0-36, -31.29u)

I have 5 in for a total of 2.7u

Thanks for reading! Good luck to all! :D

prop bets titans vs ravens video

The Baltimore Ravens (11-5) stop by Nissan Stadium Sunday to play the host Tennessee Titans (11-5) in a rematch of last year’s Divisional Round matchup in the AFC Wild Card Round of the NFL playoffs.Kickoff is set for 1:05 p.m. ET. Below, we preview the Ravens-Titans betting odds and lines and make our NFL picks and predictions.. Ravens at Titans: Betting odds, spread and lines The Baltimore Ravens visit the Tennessee Titans on Sunday in an AFC wild card playoff game at Nissan Stadium in Nashville The Titans’ Derrick Henry led the NFL in rushing for a second straight season with 2,027 yards. A look at some Ravens-Titans prop wagers and best bets can be found... The Baltimore Ravens (11-5) visit the Tennessee Titans (11-5) Sunday afternoon in the first playoff game of the day, with kickoff set for 1:05 p.m. ET at Nissan Stadium. Below, we highlight five props bets to consider for the Ravens-Titans AFC Wild Card matchup from the BetMGM game menu.. Also see: Ravens at Titans odds, picks and prediction 5 Ravens-Titans prop bet predictions for NFL Wild ... Perhaps, but hopefully, my Ravens vs. Titans NFL player props also treat you well. I like all of these bets, whether it’s just because of the price or because they flat out look like winners. To be frank, it’s a bit of both. This is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Take a look at some of my other 2021 NFL Wild Card player prop bets. Tennessee Titans vs Baltimore Ravens Prop Bets & Score Predictions NFL Playoffs 2020. Titans vs Ravens Betting Preview Tennessee Titans (9-7) The Titans’ got a 20-13 road win in Foxboro over Tom Brady and the Patriots last Saturday in the Wild Card game. Running back Derrick Henry rushed for 182 yards and a touchdown on 34 carries. NFL Wild Card Betting Picks: Best Prop Bets Ravens at Titans by Chris Vasile - 1/8/2021 Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans , Nissan Stadium, 1:05 p.m. EST. Jan 10, 2021. The Baltimore Ravens will head to Nashville, looking to avenge last season’s playoff exit at the hands of the Tennessee Titans. The visiting Ravens come in as 3.5-point favorites with the highest game total of the weekend at over/under 54.5. Do yourself a favor and check out our picks and full game analysis, before you place any bets. Head below for our free Ravens vs. Titans prop bets for January 10, 2021 in the NFL Wild Card Round. As the Ravens and @Titans get set to meet in the playoffs again, we had to throw it back to earlier this season when @KingHenry_2 walked it off in OT vs Baltimore ... Titans vs Ravens Game Predictions: The Ravens will get their revenge and move on in the playoffs. The Titans will run Henry as much as they can but the Titans defense can be shredded and the Ravens should get out to a half time lead and hold on in a game I have going under the total. Bets: Ravens -3 and Total under 55 Best team and player props for the NFL AFC wild card playoff game between the Baltimore Ravens and Tennessee Titans on Sunday, January 10th.

NFL Wild Card: Ravens at Titans odds, picks and prediction

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Rookie Report: Week 14 Starts & Sits

Notes from Ep 1011 - Christmas Eve Extravaganza! + Week 16 Matchups, Fantasy Grinches

Taking It Up To 100

News & Notes

Week 16 Matchups - Part 1

Starts of the Week

Boom Boom Kicker

Week 16 Matchups - Part 2

Prop It Like It's Hot

NFL Prop Bets: Taking the Unders on QB passing yards despite scoring at an all-time high

Notes from Ep 1015 - New Year's Eve MEGAshow + Week 17 Matchups, Motivation Levels

Taking It Up To 100

News & Notes

Week 17 Matchups - Part 1

Starts of the Week

Boom Boom Kicker of the Week

Week 17 Matchups - Part 2

Prop It Like It's Hot

r/NFL Top 100 Players of the 2019 Season - #20-11

Welcome to the reveal for players ranked 20-11 for this year’s NFL Top 100 Players for the 2019 Season!

#20 - Danielle Hunter - EDGE - Minnesota Vikings

#19 - Chris Godwin - Wide Receiver - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

#18 - Quenton Nelson - Offensive Guard - Indianapolis Colts

#17 - Jamal Adams - Strong Safety - New York Jets

#16 - Derrick Henry - Running Back - Tennessee Titans

#15 - Travis Kelce - Tight End - Kansas City Chiefs

#14 - Ryan Ramczyk - Offensive Tackle - New Orleans Saints

#13 - Julio Jones - Wide Receiver - Atlanta Falcons

#12 - Chandler Jones - EDGE - Arizona Cardinals

#11 - Ronnie Stanley - Offensive Tackle - Baltimore Ravens

LINK TO 2019 POSITIONAL GROUPING TRACKER

LINK TO 2019 RANKER SHEETS

LINK TO HUB

Schedule Change

NFL Week 15: Top Prop Bets For All 32 Teams

CreateYoureReality NFL Week 12 Sunday Games Analysis and Picks

CreateYoureReality NFL Week 6 Sunday Games Analysis and Picks (And Week 5 Recap)

CreateYoureReality NFL Week 9 Sunday Games Analysis and Picks

CreateYoureReality NFL Week 8 Sunday Games Analysis and Picks

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