Hello again folks. This is an extension of my DD last week in which I shared some research on short positions, GME’s debt, and some speculation on institutional investing. Since that post, GME is up 75% and there’s been lots of good bullish / bearish DD on the short term.
In this post, I’m going to cover 3 topics, focusing on the mid-to-long term prospects for GME: 1) Cohen, 2) GME’s market cap potential, and 3) potential investors that could continue to pile in.
TL:DR; You need to think about GME differently. Not as a trader. Not as an investor. You need to think like a venture capitalist. This is an unprecedented opportunity, and the first time I’ve gone all-in - I’m more bullish now than when the stock was trading sub $15. If you’re in GME you need to get in with conviction otherwise you’re going to lose by selling when it drops.

Quick aside - my history and positions:

I’ve been a passive investor for many years. This is literally the first time I’ve taken an interest in becoming an active investor. I opened an RH account in August to start speculating on GME. My first post called out some cheap lottery plays that took my speculating account from $5K - $20K in 3 weeks. I’ve since posted a few times on GME, even trying to tell you to buy the post-earnings dip, and added more to my active trading accounts. I’ve taken $10K -> $130K on RH and $230K -> $480K in IBKR since slowly adding to GME since September.
UPDATE: I have deleted my positions in this post - will explain why in my next post. I'm still holding.
All that being said, thus far I’ve been thinking about GME as a trade - trying to get in at the lowest cost I could for the maximum upside on a near-term exit, but I’ve switched completely into thinking of GME is a ridiculously asymmetric investment with massive potential in the next 2-3 year timeframe - even at $35. Even at $45, $50, $60. That’s why I added roughly 2500 shares on Friday at around $36 despite adding very cautiously when GME was below $20. I’m also completely all-in on RH with options (mostly deep ITM, a few fds) - $0 buying power left.
Grab a drink, sit down. Let me tell you why I’ve gotten more aggressive, and probably why you shouldn’t worry about what price you pay right now, as long as you’re willing to believe and hold.

About Cohen (and friends)

From the recent 8K about the board changes (which you should definitely read if you’re putting serious money in):
As part of the Agreement, RC Ventures has agreed to customary standstill provisions*, which provide that from the date of the Agreement until the earlier of (a) the date that is 30 calendar days prior to the deadline for the submission of director nominations by stockholders for the Company’s* 2022 annual meeting of stockholders and (b) the date that is 120 days prior to the first anniversary of the 2021 Annual Meeting (such period, the “Standstill Period”), RC Ventures will not, among other things: (i) acquire beneficial ownership in, or aggregate economic exposure to, directly or indirectly, more than 19.9% of the Company’s outstanding common stock; (ii) make any proposal for consideration by stockholders at any annual or special meeting of stockholders of the Company; (iii) make any offer or proposal with respect to any extraordinary transactions; or (iv) seek, alone or in concert with others, the appointment, election or removal of any directors in opposition to any recommendation of the Board, in each case as further described in the Agreement. As part of the Agreement, the Company has permitted RC Ventures to acquire, whether in a single transaction or multiple transactions from time to time, additional shares of the Company’s common stock to the extent such acquisitions would result in RC Ventures having beneficial ownership of less than 20.0% of the outstanding shares, without triggering the restrictions that would otherwise be imposed under Section 203 of the Delaware General Corporation Law (the “DGCL”), and RC Ventures has agreed that upon acquiring beneficial ownership 20.0% or more of the outstanding shares of the Company’s common stock, the restrictions under Section 203 of the DGCL would apply to a potential business combination with RC Ventures as an “interested stockholder” (as defined in Section 203 of the DGCL).
This is critical: This agreement was the result of a negotiation between Cohen and the existing board.

1. After his activist letter calling out the board and then 13D buy after the earnings dip rocketed the stock up from 12 -> 20, it was clear to everyone that RC was the reason GME’s stock was heading up. The GME board was afraid of a hostile takeover / losing their jobs. This agreement allowed Cohen and 2 others on the board as long as he didn’t attempt a hostile takeover.
2. Cohen wants it all. In the activist letter, he publicly said “no” to just one board seat. He then publicly bought more as soon as Sherman threatened a shelf offering to dilute him below 10%.

In addition to getting added to the board, Cohen brought along 2 execs who built Chewy with him:

• Alan Attal - the previous COO and CMO of Chewy (2011 - 2018)
• Jim Grube - the previous CFO of Chewy (2015 - 2018)

He’s not fucking around folks. He wants to build another Chewy, and he’s bringing the people who helped him do it the first time to do it again.
As a result of the agreement, he’s limited to buying up to 20% of shares until 2022. Why not 13%? Simple - Cohen wants the option to buy more. He’s not happy with a single board seat; he’s not going to settle for simply getting added to the board; and he’s not going to settle for 13% ownership.
Also, remember that Alan and Jim have 💲 to buy in as well. I haven't seen their holdings yet. Their time is worth more than their money and they've already decided to put their time in.

Cohen is not an exec - he’s a founder with an all-in mentality

Go read this bloomberg Cohen interview to understand his mindset.

1. Cohen himself is an all-in person. Key quote:
   1. “When I find things I have a lot of conviction in, I go all-in*.”*
   2. Cohen is a founder that has gone through the successful creation of a startup. When you are startup founder, most of your NW is tied to equity in your company. You are trained to have skin in the game. You’re not allowed to think you have a safety net. You give up years of your life and bet everything because you have to believe in what you’re doing. Founders typically have 30-50% ownership of their company.
   3. “Cohen uses the word “conviction” a lot. He says it’s something he learned from his father, who ran a glassware importing business in Montreal where Cohen grew up. “He taught me how to block the noise from the masses,” says Cohen. “To have a point of view and have conviction and not waver.”
2. He only sold Chewy rather taking it to IPO because of his Dad’s health. He cut his entrepreneurial career short and he’s itching to get back in.
3. Cohen sold Chewy for $3.35B, with estimates stating he personally walked away with about $600M after taxes.
4. Cohen has a lot of capital to buy more. After selling Chewy, he went all-in on Apple & WFC, which as of June was up 40%.
   1. “ Cohen says his portfolio, when including dividends and a few other stock holdings, has returned more than 40% over the past 3 years, beating the market.”
   2. Aapl was his largest holding, and is up another 50% since June 5 when the Bloomberg article was published.
   3. Cohen lives in FL - with no income or capital gains for individuals, unlike other founders who live in CA which taxes all cap gains as ordinary income.
   4. I’m going to estimate his net worth (minus his GME holdings) is around $800M-$1B.
5. Cohen’s 9,001,000 (it’s over 9000! 🐲🏐) shares have thus far been purchased at something like an average of $12/share, for a total investment of around $110M.

So Cohen has put in $110M out of his $1B into GME. Does that sound like he’s all-in? Absolutely fucking not. Cohen’s going to buy up to the max he can this year (20%), likely by selling some other holdings prior to cap gains tax law changes. He can add more next year after the standstill period is done.

What will lead to Cohen’s next purchase of GME

Thus far, every RC purchase has been about sending a message.

1. Prior to Q3 earnings, his purchases were signaling an intent to the board that he was serious about wanting to get involved. He also rubbed it in their faces that the stock price was largely appreciating because of him. From the activist letter:
   1. “We recognize that the Board may feel it is insulated from stockholder scrutiny after adding new directors this past spring and seeing a recent stock price uptick (which only came on the heels of RC Ventures filing its 13D)” (what a fucking burn).
2. If there was any doubt about RC’s impact on the stock price, it was put to rest after Q3’s earnings, where the current leadership’s hubris and threat of diluting RC led to a drop of almost 30%. RC then bought the dip, shoved it in their faces, and the market GME again rocketing GME to 20 in a massive post-earnings recovery. Message sent again - “The market wants me. Let me the fuck in.”
3. Now that Cohen and the Chewy folks are on the board, he’s going to angle for CEO. He’s not looking to advise GME. He wants to go all-in, to run GME. He’s holding the optionality of buying more based on the success of his attempt to take over GME through non-hostile means.

If you see Cohen buy more GME, he’s sending another message. This time it’s because it’s clear to him he’s going to be CEO and wants to max his skin in the game. If you see Cohen buy, it’s “CEO talks going well” - you fucking buy.

GME’s market cap potential

1. Cohen sees a $200BN+ total addressable market cap for gaming by 2023. For contrast, Chewy was playing in the pet food/supplies market, which has a total addressable market (TAM) of under $50BN annually. GME’s potential is at base 4x that of Chewy. This does not even account for the pc gaming hardware market, which is another $35BN+.
2. Chewy’s market cap is $44BN on $6BN of annual revenue.
3. Chewy’s Q3 quarterly income was up 45% YoY. While GME’s quarterly income was down YoY, its e-commerce revenue was up 257% trouncing Chewy’s growth rate.
4. GME’s Q4 early sales preview reported 300% E-commerce growth and annual run-rate of $5BN

In other words, even if you give GME’s physical locations no value, GME’s ecommerce business is growing 5x faster than Chewy and already has 75% of online revenue.
Summary: Chewy is priced > 7X times its annual total revenue. GME is priced at .45 its annual ecommerce revenue, despite GME having 5-6 greater TAM and growing its ecommerce business 5X as fast Chewy.
What. The. Fuck.
I’ve never seen a stock more mispriced.
People talking about $100 price targets are suffering from a fucking lack of imagination.
Even if you completely discount

1. GME’s physical business
2. its rev sharing partnership with MSFT
3. its 5x faster growth and 5x TAM

and give GME the same P/S multiple that Chewy has on its ecommerce business, that puts GME currently at a fair market cap above $35BN. That means GME should be at least $500/share.
In pictures:
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Comparing Ecommerce Revenue vs Market cap on Chewy vs GME today
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Showing what the fair market value Market Cap of GME would be with Chewy's P/S
​
Fair Market Value (using comps) of GME is at least $500/share.
$35/share is a fucking steal. Who cares about the short-term dips as shorts try to weasel themselves out of their positions. The market will eventually wake up to this sleeping beast. In a year you’re not going to care if you got in at 4, 12, 20, 35, or 50. You’re going to only care if you’re in or not.
​

Potential Investors

An asset is only worth what someone else is willing to pay for it, right? So are the potential buyers of this growing company?
Here’s a list in decreasing order of likelihood.

1. Elon (Least likely, completely improbable, but cataclysmic event). Elon hates shorts. Elon, with TSLA, went through the pain that GME is going through. TSLA almost went bankrupt because shorts were pushing the price down so it was difficult to raise the cash they needed to survive. Sound familiar? Elon’s wealth swings more in a day than GME is worth in entirety. Elon could buy all the fucking float of GME with what he makes in 8 hours. One call from fellow entrepreneur and aspiring twitter-meme-god would absolutely wreck the game.
   1. If you are short gamestop, you are one meme purchase by the richest man in the world away from a fucking cataclysmic event. "Hey son, I heard you like games. So I bought you gamestop. All of it." 🚀
2. Buffett (More likely, still improbable). I’m actually amazed that while Buffett & co were lamenting that there are no interesting stocks to invest in and moving to cash, that they absolutely missed the boat on GME while it was at its lows. It’s a complete value play right up his alley (in a business he can understand). My only hypothesis here is that the market cap is too small and he could not make a meaningful investment. Once GME grows to a more respectable market cap ($10b+) I can see Buffett stepping in and making an investment.
3. Cohen’s connections. (Highly likely if Cohen is CEO). This is the big one. And I mean absolutely nail in the coffin re-pricing of GME for the foreseeable future. Go read this Harvard Business Review piece on Cohen specifically on how Cohen puts importance on raising money and the people that backed him.
   1. Look, I’ve started a startup before in the valley (unsuccessfully unfortunately). However, you don’t start a company without making a shit-ton of venture capitalist & angel investor connections. Cohen has stated that when pitching Chewy he was rejected by over 100 investors. I can absolutely-fucking-guarantee you that every single one of them remembers their mistake and would not miss the opportunity to invest in Cohen again. And don’t forget all of the investors who DID invest with Cohen and reaped the benefits with Chewy. While venture capitalists don’t generally make investments in public equities, this is a truly unique situation. Cohen is treating this like a rebirth, a new venture bootstrapped from GME’s bones. If VCs as a firm will not invest, you can bet your ass that those individuals will throw their personal money at Cohen. However this only happens if he’s CEO. As soon as he’s CEO, a single long weekend trip to the valley might mean 100+ investor meetings with the strategic pitch.
      1. My biggest fear here is that VCs/PE band to take the company private at some small multiple (2-3x) and then reap the benefits while Cohen turns the company around only to re-list it to us 5 years down the road at 30X the valuation.
   2. Thus far, it’s been us retail retards vs the wall street shorts. HFs shorting this thing have the advantage in both tactics and capital. However, if Silicon Valley money starts pouring money into this the game is over. You cannot believe the amount of money that gets thrown into startups with 90% of it burning up into thin air. $3B market cap? That’s nothing. Folks with Silicon Valley money & risk tolerance would have no problem betting on a serial entrepreneur making something amazing out of a company that already has a customer base, revenue, distribution - all in the same business (e-commerce) the entrepreneur already proved themselves in.
4. You, and every other retard that believes. Look, this was my point at the beginning. You need to think like a VC here. VCs are the ultimate YOLO autists making million dollar bets and not seeing a penny of it for years. They are the ultimate 💎✋🤚. You need to decide if you have conviction for the long term and then buy in. 💎✋🤚 doesn’t mean selling at $100. It doesn’t means selling at $200. It means not selling at all this year no matter the price, and at least until you learn for sure whether Cohen is the new CEO. It means believing so hard that you 20-100X your investment in 2 years when the market wakes up to the ridiculous mispricing.
   1. Remember that if Cohen is elected CEO he can (and likely will) buy more than a 20% stake in 2022.
   2. Remember Buffett’s actual quote: "The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient."

I’ve put every dollar I can into shares in IBKR, minus some April calls. I hold no covered calls except for some call spreads I had in RH prior to recent bump. I have April calls because I will put more cash into GME after taxes are done, and I know much cash I have to use. Calls let me cap the price I would have to pay now.
This is personal research. Do your own DD.
A wiser investor than me gave the advice of “Don’t aim to maximise profit, minimize regret.” If you’re not in GME yet, ask yourself how you would truly feel if what everyone here is saying panned out to be true, and you weren’t participating.
Oh, and of course: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Update 1: I'm still holding today, but I realized I made a pretty big mistake on the ecommerce revenue analysis. GME's 2019 e-commerce revenue was 1.35B (not 1.35B for the quarter), so divide my price target by 4 - $125/share or $8B market cap.

What's Smash?

One of the premier fighting game franchises of all time, Super Smash Bros is a party series published by gaming giant Nintendo which sees characters from their various franchises (alongside several third-party characters) coming together for some family-friendly violence. Beginning with the original title in 1999 for the Nintendo 64, Smash has seen several outings in the years since, such as the iconic Melee for the Gamecube, Brawl for the Wii, the unoriginally named Smash 4 for the WiiU and 3DS, and the most recent title, Ultimate, which released on the Switch in 2018. Ultimate was seen as a huge celebration for the franchise, boasting that EVERYONE IS HERE- all seventy + fighters, ranging from staples of the original game to guest fighters and DLC, were in the launch roster. Helmed by Masahiro Sakurai, Smash is a household name and staple for parties worldwide, with Ultimate being one of the highest-selling fighting games in the world at over 12 million units sold.

What's Fire Emblem?

Fire Emblem is Nintendo's forray into strategy- a turn based fantasy seires that's one of the longer-running staples of the company with its roots in 1990 for the Famicom. Despite a lot of pushing from Nintendo, Fire Emblem failed to take off in the West for many years, with the future of the franchise being uncertain after several successive commercial flops in the 2000s. With the franchise risking cancellation if it failed to find a market, the team made a Hail-Mary pass of epic proportions thanks to Fire Emblem Awakening in 2013- a launch title for the 3DS that finally marked the series getting a foothold in the West. Since then, the series has released three big games: Fates, which wasn't very good due to pulling a Pokemon and cutting the game into three separate releases and having an awful story, Heroes, a free to play mobile game, and Three Houses, which saw the series move to the Nintendo Switch. In Three Houses, you play as Byleth, a mercenary hired to teach one of three classes in a military academy that are all led by House Lords- Edlegard, Dimitri and Claude. Three Houses combined Persona-style time management for social interactions with the tactical gameplay of the series, and was a critical success for the company, selling over 3 million units.

Smash and Fire Emblem's shared history

Fire Emblem and Smash have a tied history, due to Smash being part of the reason the series even began releasing in the West (Fire Emblem had such a small presense before this that a lot of people unironically thought Marth and Ike were original characters made just for the game). Two characters, Roy(Who's also our boi) and Marth, were playable in Melee, with their popularity leading to Nintendo beginning localisation efforts of the other games. Since then, Fire Emblem has gotten consistent additional represetation in each mainline title:

• Brawl added Ike, protagonist of Path of Radiance and its sequel, Radiant Dawn. His massive two-handed sword and battle cry of "GREAT AETHER" made him stand out as a fun battler, with high damage potential but a weak mobility selection to balance him.
  
• 3DS/WiiU would bring back Marth, Ike and Roy, alongside newcomers Robin and Lucina from Awakening and, post-launch, Corrin from Fates as a DLC fighter. The Mii Fighter would also get an outfit themed on Awakening's co-protagonist Chrom as DLC.
  
• Ultimate would launch with all prior Fire Emblem characters as part of the launch roster with a new addition- Chrom making the transition from Mii Fighter to Echo Fighter (the game's term for characters who are moveset clones, in this case for Roy while Lucina was officially made an Echo Fighter for Marth). Ultimate also saw a large collection of music from the series being available alongside three stages.
  

Perhaps one of the largest showings of how tied together the two series are, especially regarding FE getting off the ground in the West, can be seen in the announcement trailer for a re-release of Shadow Dragon and the Blade of Light, the first game in the series as part of 30th anniversary celebrations. The trailer shows two young boys playing Melee and wondering where Roy and Marth are from, leading to them discovering Fire Emblem at large.
It's at the launch of Ultimate, before the DLC released, that I'd like to dovetail and cover some of the tensions between Smash and Fire Emblem, alongside the post-launch support Ultimate got.

Smash fans vs Fire Emblem Fans: A Short History

Smash fans and Fire Emblem fans don't get along a lot of the time, it must be said (though Smash fans don't get along with anyone very well). Many Smash fans blame FE as the reason for Smash's roster being stereotyped as "Anime swordboys," due to Nintendo almost entirely drawing from the sword-fighting leads of the series instead of an axe or lance fighter. (Hector from Blazing Blade is often called an example of what a more atypical Smash rep would be due to wielding a large axe). While most of the fighters try and do different things mechanically (Robin is almost entirely a spellcaster for instance, while Corrin can turn into a dragon), that Chrom and Lucina were both moveset clones didn't help this perception.
Many other Nintendo franchise fans aren't happy additionally at how Fire Emblem gets blatant preferential treatment by Nintendo. While it is justified as them wanting to show off the new FE games in each Smash title, that Fire Emblem is all but guaranteed to get new Smash rep every time a new game releases has embittered fans of older franchises that Nintendo hasn't given as much love lately (especially F-Zero, Metroid, Golden Sun and more). Sakurai being an open Fire Emblem fan hasn't helped the perception of an inherent bias for FE, though this is usually countered by the low representation for the Kirby and Kid Icarus franchises despite Sakurai's own roles in them.
By Ultimate, a growing sentiment is that Fire Emblem is getting over-represented, as with the addition of Chrom it was now the third-most represented series in Smash after only Mario and Pokemon. Given FE's niche status in the West for most of this time, fans weren't very happy at this, partly for the aforementioned reason of wanting their own favorite franchises to get a new fighter (Metroid fans at least got a bone when Ridley joined the Ultimate roster and when Dark Samus became an Echo Fighter for Samus).

Ultimate's Fighter Pass 1: HOES MAD

Following Ultimate's launch, Nintendo released a season pass for five characters who would be added post-launch. Smash getting new fighters is notable not just because it means a new fighter and that franchise getting the prestige of saying it got into Smash, but because it means new music that can be used (unless you're Cloud) during matches. For the most part, the DLC fighters got really positive reactions due to the majority being unexpected third-party choices. Case in point, most players never saw it coming when during the Game Awards 2018, the first fighter would be revealed to be Joker from Persona 5. He'd be followed in 2019 by three more reveals: Dragon Quest's Hero, representing the more iconic protagonists in the legendary JRPG franchise, Banjo and Kazooie from the cult Microsoft series, and Terry Bogard from the SNK franchise (shout out to Sakurai's history lesson that's pretending to be a showcase for Terry, which also involves Sakurai's story of how they got 50 tracks from the SNK games into Smash)
Also Sans from Undertale got in. This unironically led to an increase in Mii Gunner mains.
Terry and Hero would generate some salt in the West due to perceived antiquity and lack of pedegree/mainstream appeal (Hero being "another anime sword boy" didn't help), leading to a mocking response of HOES MAD from Hero's fans especially, though Terry's got in on the fun thanks to the pun involving Terry's home series, Fatal Fury.
Thanks to the four characters seen thus far, the expectation was that Fighters Pass 1 would be made entirely of third party characters, and as January 2020 rolled around the expectations were high as to who would get in. Sora from Kingdom Hearts was a popular choice, alongside Geno from the Mario RPG series. Some dumbasses even wanted Tracer from Overwatch, partly thanks to Blizzard all but openly begging Nintendo for a Smash invite. The one with the most consistent support was Dante from the Devil May Cry series. And a few accidental coincidences boosted the idea of Dante getting in:

• Dante's first three games had been ported to the Switch during Fighter Pass 1, with Devil May Cry 3 releasing in February 2020 soon after the final character was announced.
  
• Brian Hanford, who played V in Devil May Cry 5, had a slip of the tongue where he talked about Dante in the context of Smash (“to be part of Marvel Vs Capcom, or Super Smash Bros., would be huge, which is what Dante is gonna be,”), leading many to believe Brian had leaked Dante as the fifth fighter.
  
• Dante was experiencing a large-scale renaissance in popularity thanks to DMC 5 launching in early 2019, leading to him being on everyone's minds when it came to him joining the roster. Adding in his experience in fighting games already thanks to the Marvel vs Capcom games, it seemed set in stone that Dante would join the hallowed halls of Smash.
  
• To hype up the final character, Sakurai posed with three fingers outstretched. DMC fans took this as a hint of Dante, given that DMC 3 would be coming soon to Switch.
  
• On the same day as the character reveal, Capcom had planned a DMC announcement (it turned out to be an announcement that the game would have a co-op mode for Dante and Vergil in Bloody Palace).
  

With expectations set high, everyone tuned in on January 16th 2020 to see the final Season 1 character... and it was Byleth, the player character of Three Houses.
Another fucking Fire Emblem rep. The internet took it well, as you'd expect. Dante's fans just resorted to sad memes and jokes about one of Byleth's alt skins being "close enough" to let them pretend Byleth was Dante.

Smash likes to date around, and Fire Emblem is that girl that he always goes back to.
Byleth Joins The Roster: The Salt Mines Floweth

Byleth's announcement generates some of the most negative reactions to a Smash fighter yet seen, boasting the largest like-dislike ratios of Ultimate's DLC, and only matched for disliked announcements across the entire franchise by Corrin.
A lot of people weren't happy at Byleth's inclusion, suffice to say, though like Terry and Hero the HOES MAD crowd came back for another go around. It didn't help how utterly predictable it was given it was a historical recreation of Corrin's inclusion in WiiU/3DS. While Byleth had been predicted, many expected the mechanical variance would be that Byleth would function similar to the Pokemon Trainer (who swaps between the Gen 1 Pokemon) in that Byleth would command Claude, Dimitri and Edlegard from the sidelines. Instead, Byleth had four weapons- three representing each of the House Leaders alongside their own custom whip-sword, the Sword of the Creator. That being said, at least Nintendo were somewhat self aware about it this time, given the reveal had supporting character Sothis mock Byleth for losing a fight by going "Too many swordsmen, were there?" as a way to reveal that Byleth's female variant would join the roster.
While Byleth did offer some mechanical variety from the other FE reps, some were disappointed that Byleth specifically was representing Three Houses, due to Byleth's personality not being one of their selling points. Perhaps it would have been more preferable to have one of the House Leaders instead represent the game, but given how any one being selected would have been seen as favoritism of the Leaders (and the arguments about said Leaders being quite vicious), Byleth was the safest choice, if perhaps the most predictable. Fans of Xenoblade 2 were also unhappy at clear bias on Sakurai's part, given he'd previously said Rex, the MC, was from too new a game to qualify for a roster slot in Ultimate. In comparrison, Sakurai admitted in his presentation of Byleth that he pestered the developers to get early access copies of Three Houses to get to plan out Byleth's moveset, which only helped the idea of Fire Emblem operating on different rules from other series.
Overall, Byleth was seen as a disappointing inclusion to wrap up the Fighters Pass, with the announcement honestly being more notable for the memes about the salt over the character themself. (My favorites were the ones about Joker adding yet another teacher to his harem) After the shock reveals from relatively niche series such as Persona and SNK, Byleth was generally felt to be an overwhelmingly safe option to close on. While Sakurai did announce Fighters Pass 2 in the same event, promising six more DLC characters for Ultimate, a lot of fans from different franchises were still let down given how unpredictable the first wave had been.

Fighters Pass 2 and the Byleth aftermath

Byleth would launch a few weeks later and the reception was largely "Yeah they're fine," after an initial launch of "Yeah you're fuckin' overtuned and overpowered." They got some people who main them, others swore off them, much like any other DLC character in a fighting game, and the salt gradually diminished.
In February of 2020, Sakurai would tacitly admit during a Famitsu article about Byleth's development that he was aware of the criticism about the addition, saying that he doesn't have as much power over roster choices as people like to believe (Byleth apparently snubbed a fighter he was much more enthusiastic about) but that he agreed that there were a few too many sword fighters and Fire Emblem representatives specifically in the game. Given Sakurai has said Smash will never have a roster as large as Ultimate again, it's likely some of Fire Emblem's representation will be cut down in future games as part of this culling.

That being said, I understand. First and foremost: there are too many Fire Emblem characters; and what’s more there are too many sword-users.

So far, three of the six planned characters for Fighter's Pass 2 have been released, with Min-Min from the Arms series coming first, Steve from Minecraft literally breaking Twitter (Steve's addition could be a post of its own with how much salt he generated) and the OG Anime Sword Boy, the One Winged Angel himself in Sephiroth being announced at the Game Awards 2020. We're still waiting for updates on when the fourth fighter will be revealed and who they may be, but regardless of who it is, there will always be a few mad hoes in the background.
Also Geno finally got into Smash!... As a Mii skin which led to the character's fanbase collectively reaching for a noose. These hoes weren't even that mad, it was mostly just sad.
Still. At least it's better than whatever the Walluigi mains are up to.
Thanks for reading.

Why buy AMC?

___________________________________________________________________________________________________
1.) COVID vaccine rollout has started, and we will be able to attend movies soon. The Biden Administration (sorry for getting political, just pls keep reading) has an ambitious plan (100 million vaccines in 100 days or whatever the fuck) and this pandemic is almost over. I’d give it until the end of the year.
2.) Most AMC theatres are open or they are planning to open soon with social distancing and mask measures in place. They will shut down the food services and concessions, but they are coming back.
3.) Consumers have a sentimental connection to movies. They will come back. People are starved for the outside world and will come out in massive hordes to watch movies. People will go out and see movies, take their kids, go on dates, etc. Nothing can replicate the experience of a giant screen and surround audio.
4.) This major influx of blue balled movie goers will cause a major boost in 2021. Then we will see a continuation of the year over year growth we have been seeing since 2012.
5.) The AMC business model is working. The revenue has steadily increased since 2012 year over year. In 2012, they made $811 million. In 2019, they made $5.47 billion. There has been a steady rise. THEY ARE NOT IN DECLINE.
6.) I understand they have many loans, but it is something that can be paid off in a few years with the help of their parent company, Wanda Entertainment, and increased profits in 2021.
7.) They will not go bankrupt. WANDA entertainment, a Chinese company owns the plurality share (20%) and will bail them out if it is necessary. They bought for $2.6 billion in 2012, and have seen a ROI, scoring $2.7 billion in 2013, the year immediately after their purchase. AMC is too good of an asset for Wanda to lose them. Also, AMC can take advantage of new stimulus and other government assistance programs.
8.) It’s extremely cheap right now because everybody is shorting, and there’s a pandemic. Corona is only temporary. Everybody thought GameStop was going to go under, until we showed them. Remember that.
9.) If there is interest or heightened trading in the stock, AMC can dilute shares and sell them to help finance operations and pay debt, using stock sales as leverage. AMC just did this today, and they can do it again if needed.
10.) AMC will not go bankrupt, not only because of the potential Wanda bailout, but they also raised $917 million today. They have enough runway to stay operational the end of the year. "Bankruptcy is off the table for now." (We should be able to return to theatres by then.) A slight majority of this new liquidity comes from issuing new shares, as described in 9. They are also planning to do debt/equity swaps, so those who take out debt can hold shares in the company, and AMC won't get fucked over by high loan payments.
11.) AMC is about 70% shorted, there is much potential to cause a squeeze. However, there are still many more reasons to invest in AMC beyond a simple short squeeze.
12.) AMC does very well when it is not pandemic. $5.4 billion in revenue last year, and there will be many movies, as well as many moviegoers that come out after the pandemic. Especially with major franchise movies, which have been delayed. They have also reached a deal with Universal, which allows Universal to do home releases earlier, but stipulates they must be in theatres for 17 days before that.
13.) AMC is only $12 a share right now... Even if it loses, you’re only going to lose a bit. Meanwhile, the ceiling is high, and there is much potential. If you want in, do it now while it's cheap. People keep talking about how dumb it is to buy during the pandemic, but this is the point of largest potential. Don't wait for the recovery to buy.
14.) AMC used to trade at $10 before the pandemic. Let’s keep it at its former glory. AMC deserved a $1bn market cap and they got one. They will probably hit $20 tomorrow (predicting $25 by Feb1, peak in summer with COVID all done.).
15.) Even though the Net income is negative and they lose money, it consistently stays in the hundred thousands range, and it does not lose that much. Any autist on here from GME could pay the difference. AMC has also increased gross profits year over year, from 2,004,200 in 2016, to 3,493,200.
(The rest of these bullet points are just jokes, so feel free to skip if you want.)
16.) Without AMC there’s no place to spend my AMC points, and there better be a place for me to spend those points because I invested my entire life savings into those damn AMC stubs.
17.) Going to the movies was my childhood. We must save my childhood. DO NOT LET AMC DIE. Save AMC.
18.) You can take ur wife and her bf to the movies when this is over.
19.) The AMC food court literally sells tendies. (But we should call AMC tendies popcorns instead.)
20.) STONCCS only go up.
21.) you guys are all retard who cannot think for themselves and will do whatever is echoed in this fucking internet cave.
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TL;DR : AMC has done a great job with fundraising and can survive until the end of the year. Vaccine rollout has started, and recovery is coming soon. People are due to return to movies. About 70% of shares are shorted, so we can potentially trigger a squeeze.

Pandemic recovery & squeeze combo.

___________________________________________________________________________________________________
Buy AMC. Or don’t. Your choice.
If you’re with us, let's save the movies. I hope you like popcorn. Get on the rocket, because you're going to the moon.
If you don’t, then bye bye, I wish you the best.
"The sun is shining on AMC." - Adam Aron
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Sources Cited:
https://www.chicagotribune.com/entertainment/movies/ct-ent-movie-theaters-reopening-0123-2021
https://www.amctheatres.com/amc-safe-and-clean#locations
https://www.statista.com/statistics/206959/revenue-of-amc-theatres/
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/01/25/amc-ceo-adam-aron-on-917m-financing.html
https://www.highshortinterest.com/
https://variety.com/2020/film/news/universal-amc-deal-theaters-pandemic-1234801134/
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/amc
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210125005273/en/AMC-Raises-917-Million-of-Fresh-Investment-Capital-Since-Mid-December-of-2020
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Portfolio disclosure: I own 200 shares of AMC long currently.
The above references an opinion and is for information purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Seek a duly licensed professional for investment advice. Invest at your own risk, and understand that you may lose money. These are just my thoughts, make your own decisions, and do your own research.
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EDIT: the autobot seriously out here banning me for talking AMC smh. It was fucking worth it.Well, if i can't comment, I will let you know that I am with you AMC army retards with my upvotes and awards.

EDIT 2: GODDAMN I REALLY WANT TO REPLY TO SOME OF THIS SHIT BUT I CANT

EDIT 3: for the retards buying calls, BUY SHARES, not calls.

EDIT 4: for those of you who can't understand English, what i'm trying to say is

$AMC🚀🚀🚀

translation.

EDIT 5: ONCE AGAIN, BUY SHARES NOT CALLS. NOT DIFFICULT. also i've realized that most of you are buying because i said "short squeeze one time". this isn't over, this is going far beyond the squeeze. diamond hands until COVID ends.

EDIT 6: $5 END OF DAY LETS GO LETS GO LETS GO OPEN THE FUCKING WALLET

EDIT 7: DONT BE A PAPERHANDS BITCH! GO BUY THE DIP! You’ll need some dip for your tendies, there are no stops on the way to the moon. (You’ll have to piss in a bucket)

EDIT 8: updated price targets on AMC, updated portfolio disclosure, and now a reason 21.

EDIT 9: there will not be a dip. Go buy it now to fuel the rocket. It’s not too late. If there is a dip, take advantage to expand your holding in AMC

EDIT 10: (because I’m a greedy bitch): if you feel like supporting me, you can either

1.) buy amc shares.

OR

2.) make a direct donation to me. My crypto wallet is:

0x86c4e867c9E5b72872a505d2ae1F24312E3b73c8 You can send me any coins, but EtheEtheruem (ETH) is preferred.

EDIT 11: i have a twitter now.

EDIT 12: HOLY SHIT I'M UNBANNED, TIME TO REPLY!

EDIT 13: making price adjustments to keep this relevant.

EDIT 14: keeping it relevant

EDIT 15: reminder: it’s buy o clock. You best not sell. HOLD THE LINE. We’re heading to the moon, no matter what these robberhood shittertons or hedge funds say. We fell because we were locked out of purchasing. We will return to normal. DONT SURRENDER NOW. HOLD THE LINE. HOLD THE STONK.

I want to preface this DD by stating I’ve only began to invest seriously in the past two years. I’m a novice by any standard and am typically VERY risk adverse. I’ve only dabbled in penny stocks during the last half year or so, and when I have, I’ve been reluctant to invest any remotely significant portion of my portfolio into any one particular stock. I’m not recommending anyone do what I do and I’m definitely not a financial advisor. But having said that, Talon Metals (TLOFF) is the exception to all my investing rules. It’s a game changer and here’s why:
I have family in Duluth, Minnesota. My brother-in-law has been in the mining industry his entire life. Talon Metals is on track to be the top nickel producing company in North America and it also happens to be located in central Minnesota. I knew nothing about mining or mining companies before diving into this, but he’s been working in the industry for 19 years. He’s worked and lived in both Canada and the US because of his career in the mining industry. I’m really not sure if this type of information is allowed here but I happened to randomly speak with him yesterday before the Super Bowl and following our conversation, I’ve never in my life been more excited about any one stock, or opportunity for that matter, after hearing what he had to say.
All I will say (and all I believe I’m allowed to say here) is he is (1) very familiar with Talon Metals, (2) the EV craze for nickel is very real, and (3) Talon Metals is indeed on Tesla’s radar, and is absolutely in the running to get a long term contract for RESPONSIBLE nickel mining, along with one other domestic contender. He was emphatic that not only will this will happen before 2021 is over, but also that the contract will indeed be with a DOMESTIC nickel producer because of Tesla’s supply chain goals and because of the impending subsidies that are going to be granted by Biden, given to domestic, AMERICAN metal mining companies adjunct to the EV industry. This is the same reason Tesla has already begun exploring their own lithium mining operations in Nevada. Nickel, however, is an different entirely beast and cannot by extracted easily from clay sites like the one Tesla just purchased in Nevada. Nickel extraction is far more labor intensive and Tesla frankly doesn’t have a choice but to contract mining companies to unearth this metal. Before going further, I do not claim to be aware of any existing contract/agreement between Tesla/any other EV company and Talon Metals.
I proceeded to grill him on what he was telling me and made him clarify over and over. Floored, I’ve been researching non-stop for nearly 24 hours straight about anything I can on Talon Metals and it’s major competitors, and any insight I can gather into upcoming EV manufacturer contracts. My brother-in-law’s knowledge of the situation lines up almost too perfectly after reading everything I’ve read in the last 24 hours. Check it out:
Tesla will be making all their battery cathodes going forward without ANY cobalt whatsoever. In fact, Tesla has gone on record to rule out cobalt from its batteries going forward. This means a HUGE increased demand for nickel. Again, my brother-in-law is already seeing this firsthand in his industry. All the domestic mining industry can talk about is lithium and nickel, apparently. In his words “it’s becoming the new gold”.
Cobalt is considered the “blood diamond” of metal mining. Cobalt is also the most expensive metal element in EV batteries. Nickel is cheaper and safer than cobalt and comes with far fewer environmental repercussions. Going cobalt-free and moving to nickel-based cathodes will be THE vital step in Tesla’s goal to make the $25,000 EV ubiquitous. Nickel ore is absolutely essential and Elon knows it, which is why he’s pleaded on record via Twitter stating - “... Go for efficiency, obviously environmentally-friendly nickel mining at high volume. Tesla will give you a giant contract for a long period of time, if you mine nickel efficiently and in an environmentally sensitive way.”
Nickel is not only the future of Tesla’s batteries, it’s the future of every EV maker’s battery cathodes. Tesla doesn’t just want a green car, they have become obsessed with the “cleanness” of the manufacturing aspect of the car itself. It is almost a forgone conclusion that every single other manufacturer of EVs, large and small, are going to follow suit with eliminating expensive, inefficient cobalt and replacing it entirely with nickel.
To the next point and my single biggest questions - aren’t there larger mining companies that exist that can dwarf the amount of nickel mid-size mining companies can produce? And why is Talon Metals purportedly the golden child of all the domestic nickel mining companies?
Here’s the answer. Tesla has held off awarding any contract because they are apparently vetting every mid-size and large nickel mining company with extreme scrutiny. Again, something my brother-in-law has told me he’s witnessed firsthand recently to a greater extent than he’s ever seen in his nearly two decades in the industry. Talon Metals has a proprietary nickel extraction method - arguably the cleanest in the world. They’ve literally coined the buzzwords “green nickel”. Talon Metals is the only domestic mining company the creates solar energy fields from former mining sites. Talon Metals is also the ONLY major nickel producer in North America that is actively attempting to make its entire mining operation carbon-neutral, including transitioning to its own on-site EVs.
Better yet, geological testing at their main Tamarack mining site in Minnesota has revealed that it is indeed one of THE MOST high-quality nickel dense sites in the world rivaled only by the nickel mining industry in Indonesia (which currently has a nickel ore export ban). Most nickel sulphide mining projects are around .9% - 1.1%. Low-grade nickel sulphide mining projects are about .2%. Talon Metals Tamarack nickel sulphide deposit has averaged 1.8% - 2.1%! It may not sound like much, but it is extremely significant. Nickel sulphide deposits like the one at Tamarack are EXTREMELY few and far between worldwide. For this reason alone Talon Metals can provide high quality nickel at the lowest possible cost out of any single company in North America. It’s not even close. Talon Metals’ Tamarack mine is also only ONE OF TWO large-scale, high grade nickel operations in the US, the other being Eagle Mine in Michigan, which is purportedly going to be mined-out by 2025 (cease mining nickel altogether). This will leave Talon Metals as not only the sole, major high-grade nickel operation in the US, but also the greenest in the world. Unlike the trajectory of lithium recycling operations, nickel recycling operations do not and will not come anywhere close to meeting the current demand by EV companies for many years. It’ll be decades until that’s the case and until then, nickel mining is absolutely crucial to the EV world.
Even with all that good news I saved the very best for last. From my understanding, here is the biggest reason Talon Metals is THE front runner for a massive nickel contract from Tesla and other EV companies:
Talon has created their own proprietary hydromet process. What this means is, they have a created a process where nickel is minded and transformed into battery form ON-SITE! This means no smelting. It also means significantly lower cost and skipping transportation of the mined nickel multiple times across different continents before the nickel returns to the USA in a battery component called a cathode. Talon Metals has created the ONLY process in the world where the nickel goes from the mine to the battery in one place. From the CEO of Talon Metals, here’s what he said recently in an interview - “Talon is looking to raise the bar on how mining is done. By going directly from mine to battery we believe that we can play a vital role in a fully integrated domestic battery supply chain, rather than shipping the product around the globe multiple times for processing.”
When the Talon Metals CEO was asked to comment about an impending partnership with Tesla he DID NOT flat out deny it. As leader of a publicly traded company he is required to explicitly deny claims of this type if he knows them to be false. Instead, he simply said he’d rather not comment at this time.
Other huge mining companies are messing up, BADLY. Vale mining has had terrible publicity recently due to their horrific Brazilian mining accident where 270 people died because of sheer negligence. Also, not domestic nickel. Norilsk nickel mining in Russia might be the single largest nickel mining operation in the world, and possibly the single most environmentally UNFRIENDLY. Their stock has suffered because of it. They face billions of dollars in fines for egregious environmental violations and have completely polluted the largest river in the Taymyr area of Russia, infuriating the indigenous Taymyr people and causing massive protests throughout much of Northern Russia. And again, not domestic. Indonesia produces more nickel than anyone in the world but they currently have an export ban, and further, they’ve also begun terribly polluting the surrounding ocean as a consequence of increased nickel demand. Indonesia is actually probably the worst offender out of all three major nickel mining operations, even worse than Brazil and Russia. Tesla is also actively trying to eliminate Indonesian nickel from their future supply chain due the country’s environmentally unfriendly regard towards the Pacific and Indian Oceans.
Maybe most importantly, Tesla has already shown their willingness to partner with relatively smaller, DOMESTIC metal mining operations. If you recall, Tesla signed a 5 year agreement with Piedmont Lithium based in North Carolina just recently in September of 2020. This was only 4-5 months ago! The Piedmont Lithium mine in North Carolina is still under development. They are an emerging lithium mining company still in its infancy who, I believe, had zero customers prior to Tesla. I don’t believe Piedmont Lithium has even begun extracting lithium and it seems they’ve only completed requisite geologic and feasibility studies. Talon Metals is arguably far, FAR more established. Before the Tesla agreement, Piedmont Lithium was trading at about $6 a share. Now it’s at about $60 a share. 10X in five months, still skyrocketing.
Tesla entering a long term agreement with Vale, Norilsk or an Indonesian supplier goes against literally everything Tesla is trying to create, and a partnership, although possible, is highly, highly unlikely. They want environmentally sensitive green nickel extraction, they want to optimize their supply chain and they’d prefer a domestic source. Talon Metals is all of these things and by far the most likely choice. The foreign existing nickel mining operations are none of these things. Talon Metals will not only be the first major domestic nickel deal Tesla does, very similar to the Piedmont Lithium deal they did in September of 2020, but Talon Metals will be THE major green nickel producer of the world within a few years. Tesla has already begun its own lithium mining explorations in Nevada and STILL needed another domestic source in Piedmont Lithium. Tesla does not and will not mine for nickel, arguably the single most important metal in its battery.
Take all this for whatever it’s worth. Like the stock. Don’t like the stock. Up to you. I am very, very long on TLOFF. This subreddit has been an extremely good source of penny stock info and I’m grateful to its members, big time. THIS is where I come for 90% of my penny stock sentiment. Of course I’ll research thoroughly from here before pulling the trigger and truly, I pass on a lot of what I read here, but my total return from investing in penny stocks recommended here is, as a percentage, significantly higher than my total return from investing in more traditional NYSE and Nasdaq stocks. And again, for that, I’m very grateful to this subreddit. I doubt I’ll post about other pennies in the future that I think are going to take off because frankly, I don’t know enough and don’t want to mislead people... but if there was ever one stock I was extremely confident recommending, it’s Talon Metals $TLOFF. I truly wish you guys the very best of luck with all your future investments! Thanks for reading.
I think I’m required to do this, so for transparency, I own 41,200 shares of $TLOFF at an average of price of $0.46. Single biggest investment in my portfolio.
EDIT: I’m really new to making DDs and didn’t realize links to my sources were expected. I’ve heard it a few times now. My apologies. I don’t really plan on making a habit of doing DDs or recommending stocks in general. I just happened to get some incredible insight into this company’s near term expectations and figured I’d share it with the community that’s been the single biggest positive contributor to my own personal investing.

GME Short Squeeze What Comes Next Part 3
Hello all,
Before I begin I would like to address something I have been encountering on my posts in the comments section. I keep receiving some hate concerning my opinions and I want to be crystal clear that they are just that; opinions. I also want everyone to know that is is meant to be a dialog. I am not trying to pump this stock because truthfully, this goes far beyond us retail investors at this point. What I want is a dialog between all sides to examine this truly fascinating phenomenon that is occurring.
I would also like to clarify something, I am not a bagholder. I do currently hold bags because I own 336 shares at a $194.34 cost basis, however, that total amount is house money that was used from my profits on the first go around.
I also understand some people are tired of hearing about this because it's the same regurgitated form of someone else's post as it keeps circulating in an attempt to retain hype and drive future buying; this is not what this post is about. As investors and individuals involved in the world of finance, this situation should absolutely intrigue us whether or not we are involved. I am here to present my logic on the situation but encourage healthy discussion and debate.
This brings me to my first claim. This is not over. Now, I am not claiming that a squeeze will still occur, I am simply claiming it is not over, for better or for worse. Several things need to take place for this to be completely over, at which point I will either post my gains or my losses from the adventure.
When I say "it" I am referring to this entire phenomenon, not one short squeeze. I do not think these events, "it", is over. This is largely due to retail and institutional purchasing not really changing all that much since we found the bottom and established support at a staggering $60. This support was lost today and found new support at $50. There was very interesting ATH action and I'm not sure what to make of it.
Millions of bag holders (not just WSB) are still holding and in fact, averaging down, thereby purchasing more. These same bag holders are absolutely refusing to sell for such massive losses and in turn are becoming long term investors on the stock if another squeeze isn't to occur. People are picking up speculative positions in the off-chance of another squeeze. Others are determining this as a fair value for the company, not fundamentally, but based on the future prospects of Ryan Cohen and team. Finally, it is nowhere near leaving the global stage with important upcoming dates that we will discuss later.
To examine why it isn't over let's look at both sides of the argument:

1. Bulls claim it's not over for many reasons that you can find in the hundreds of other bullish posts, so I won't bore you with those details. My argument on the bull side is more along the lines of what I listed above.
2. Bears claim it is over because there was a 2250% price increase over the course of two weeks, therefore this must be a short squeeze.

I think we can all agree, bear or bull, that something happened. A 2250% increase certainly isn't nothing. The question is...what? I see several possibilities and would like to discuss them in the comments.

1. The shorts in fact covered and this was a short squeeze.
2. The shorts partially covered and this was a partial short squeeze, but the price increase was mainly hype and gamma squeezes.
3. The shorts didn't cover anything and this was a globally hyped price increase in conjunction with several gamma squeezes.
4. Some combination of the above 3.

First, the data:
Based on morningstar the short interest is showing 78.46%. Now, I think the website is having some issues storing cookies because it will show the outdated 226% unless you open it up in incognito.
Market watch is showing 41.95%
This spread is interesting for sure, my thoughts are some of these calculations are including "synthetic longs" introduced by S3.
It is extremely possible to manipulate these numbers via illegal methods and even legal methods using options. Please see this SEC document to explain how this would work. I am not trying to convince anyone to fit my narrative, but these things occur far more commonly than one would expect. The reasoning is because the fines for committing the crime are far less costly than letting the event take place. Please see FINRA's website for the long, and frequent list of fines being dealt out due to manipulation. A common culprit? Lying about short volume.
Let's use the absolute worst case scenario being reported of 41.95%, which mind you is still extremely high for one stock:
The shorts in fact covered and this was a short squeeze
What's interesting here is even if the shorts 100% covered all of their positions, they very well could have shorted on the way back down. Why wouldn't you? It would be insane to not open a short position when this hit nearly $500 especially if you lost half of your companies money; what better way to get it back? For the remainder of this thesis, I will be assuming that some of the short positions that exist are newly opened positions at a higher price unless someone has a counter-claim as to why that wouldn't be possible/probable.
That would mean 226% was covered on the way up and another 41.95% was reopened on the way back down. Based on the volume and price changes throughout the past two weeks this simply doesn't pass the math check.
The shorts partially covered and this was a partial short squeeze.
Again, using 41.95% this is highly likely and the most reasonable case. Some, probably the worst positions, were covered on the way up.
I think this is precisely what happened, we had some partial shorts covering but for the most part it was gamma squeezes, hype, and FOMO whereby the price started climbing so rapidly it became smarter for the shorts to just wait out the bubble than to actually cover all of their positions.
Again, we fall into a "what-if" scenario regarding shorting on the way back down.
The shorts didn't cover anything and this was a globally hyped price increase in conjunction with several gamma squeezes.
This scenario does not pass the math check using the 41.95% figure.
If the data is being manipulated then this becomes very interesting because if some of the worst positions are still open then that means all of these HF's losses that were reported were strictly interest and they are simply waiting this out for as long as it takes making back their losses on their newly opened short positions in t $300-$400 range.
Sadly, this puts us in the guessing range yet again. We can do the math and see it's possible this scenario exists, however, we would be comparing it against losses reported by the entities that were being squeezed.
There are way to many what-if's for me to me consider this a possibility, but I can't write it off completely.
Some combination of the above 3.
Truthfully, this isn't worth examining just yet. There would be far to many "what-if's" to address, this is something that could be address at the later dates that we will get to shortly.
Now, I've heard it a lot regarding the 02/09 data. "It's two weeks old". Well, that is always the case. The FINRA short data is always two weeks old and suggesting that we can't pull any information from it at all is asinine. Where it gets quite murky, is the data includes 01/27 information. This was a day unlike any other in this saga.
I will take this moment to address the following upcoming catalysts and when I truly think this will be done; one way or the other.
Today's data 02/09, was very important because if it showed an extremely low percentage then we know shorts have exited and did not re-enter and this is completely done. Given the data does not reflect that, we now must turn to several events that could act as catalysts for either a further squeeze or a complete shutdown.
02/19 - In my last post, I discussed the Failure To Deliver (FTD) conundrum. I do need some help figuring out the exact expiration date. From here "The close-out requirement states that a participant of a clearing agency needs to take immediate action to close 4 out a fail to deliver position in a threshold security that has persisted for 13 consecutive settlement days by purchasing securities of like kind and quantity."
The exact date is slightly irrelevant because I highly doubt all of these FTD's are going to deliver on the same exact day. This site, while it isn't an official channel seems to be doing a good job of tracking data. If you want to learn more about FTD's and the implications there please visit that site or review my last post which has links to follow for further reading.
02/18 - Keith Gill aka u/DeepFuckingValue will testify before congress and RH CEO Vladimir will be attending. This can go several ways which can lead to an SEC trading halt on GameStop or with evidence that proves foul play occurred. Who knows? It will certainly be interesting and I don't even to speculate on the market reaction to this even because it could go a ton of different ways; it will be an important date nonetheless
02/24 - The next FINRA short interest information will be made readily available to the public. This will be far more interesting and helpful information because it won't include the insane volatility of January, but it will also highlight the newest short positions. This data will help further drive where I think this is all going to end. It's possible that shorts opened new positions at $50 thinking it was going back to $12. Let's not speculate too much here either, it's just another dataset that will bring light to the direction this is headed.
03/25 - GameStop ER. This is big too for several reasons. First, this will include the console sales cycle which historically has done well for GameStop. A typical buy the hype, sell the news event. It will be interesting to see how the market reacts leading up to this ER, maybe people won't even touch GME leading up to then due to the recent volatility, but if they do, and if there is still a lot of short interest, this too could force shorts to begin covering. Another critical part of this ER is Ryan Cohen. This will be the first time this new board addresses the public with their plans for the future and for the first time since this entire adventure began, the "dying brick and mortar" narrative will finally begin to change in the public eye. That is still the common misconception regarding GameStop, that it is a dying brick and mortar retailer where nothing has changed. This hasn't been the case for around 6 months now, but this will be the first time it is publicly address. The headlines surrounding GameStop's future plans will be very interesting to read and the markets reaction will be far more interesting.
I have been asked a lot what my PT is and when I expect the squeeze to happen, but let me be clear. Very seldom do squeezes "just happen". In fact, short squeezes are far more common than one would think, they just typically happen over months, if not years and the shorts cover on dips so you don't even notice it's happening. In order to force a squeeze, you need to hold a decent amount of shorts underwater. Soon one will crack and start closing their position, this leads to a series of shorts closing their positions skyrocketing the price until more and more shorts need to cover. This is rare.
I hope this narrative of purchasing heavily shorted companies comes to a close soon because a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money simply buying up companies because they are heavily bet against. Catalysts and massive changes need to occur like overhauling your entire business as is the case with GameStop.
Normally, shorts will close their positions one at a time, covering on dips and you don't even notice it's happening. In times where you see a price rise of seemingly no news could very well be shorts closing their positions because their research led them to realize this company is on the road to recovery.
I digress. Given the most recent data and the multiple upcoming catalysts I am still very bullish on a GME short squeeze. My post from quite some time ago illustrated the importance of catalysts regarding a short squeeze, this is still very much the case. The first run was interrupted and the second run won't happen with magic, it requires a catalyst. Another post was titled For those who do not understand the inevitable GME short squeeze, was at the time "inevitable" because math. That is no longer the case. It is no longer inevitable but it is still possible.
I want to be clear: This is not nearly as close to a sure thing as it once was and it depends on a lot of different factors. One of the largest is the people. Granted, a lot of what's happening now is in the hands of institutions but millions of retailers holding their positions to the grave certainly helps the institutional buyers have more faith in their play to continue a squeeze.
SO WHAT DO I THINK
I think shorts certainly covered some of their positions, but not all. I also firmly believe a significant amount of short positions were opened on the way back down by both HF's and individuals. Some certainly positioned high, but based on sentiment, it appears a lot of people think GME is fairly valued around $20 (which I disagree with but let's use that for the time being). That would mean shorts would have no problem opening positions at 100,70,60, even $50.
42% is still very high which means a squeeze is inevitable so long as the company continues in a positive path. However, squeezes typically aren't as abrupt as people think. They are actually quite common, in fact another position I'm heavily invested in is SPCE and they have been going through a squeeze for several weeks and will continue to squeeze so long as news continues to be positive.
How would we get an abrupt short squeeze? A massive bull run. The new shorts that entered at lower levels wouldn't be too hard to catch, however, they are probably low volume, so when they buy to close, it won't be large enough volumes for massive peaks, but a bull run very well could lead to these lower tiered shorts closing, triggering a gamma squeeze. If gamma squeezes are made week over week then shorts at the higher end would have two options:

1. Close early and take profits
2. Wait it out because they are positioned so well that interest means nothing and they don't think there is any hope of us rising to those levels.

In the first case, them closing early would be a nice short squeeze to probably several hundred dollars, but it wouldn't break $1000.
To break $1000 we would need a big bull run to catch the shorts, trigger gamma squeezes, and keep momentum until they are caught and underwater. This is highly unlikely unless there is another global sentiment.
NOTE: ALL OF THESE ASSUMPTIONS I AM MAKING ARE BASED ON THE 42% REPORTING. IF IT IS IN FACT 78% THEN THE POSSIBILITY IS TREMENDOUSLY INCREASED FOR THESE THINGS TO HAPPEN.
SO WHEN DOES IT ALL END
My though is if by the end of March these catalysts were not enough to reignite the hype and squeeze, then it will essentially be over except in the case of a few circumstances:

1. A VW/Porche moment occurs where a large buyer picks up a large portion of the company.
2. Some other currently unknown catalyst appears seemingly out of thin air
3. The data was in fact manipulated. Regardless of what the data says, if the shorts did in fact lie about their short int to take the fine over being squeezed, then they will be squeezed regardless.

It is quite possible, that these catalysts and moments aren't enough to force a squeeze anymore especially if the shorts have repositioned really well. I will retain the mindset that this fateful January 2021 was not a short squeeze. However, that does not mean it will ever actually happen.
SO WHAT IS YOUR PLAY HOOMAN?
Well, I am long on GME which is why I didn't mind hopping back in even at outrageous prices. I will continue averaging down and don't plan on selling for quite some time, probably several years. The reason for this is I believe in Cohen and his team to turn this into something unexpected and I imagine an eventual ROI. Once this is all said and done and I think either the shorts truly have covered or they simply got away with it (Beginning of April), I will be posting my DD for GME as a long play regardless of the squeeze mechanics.
Thank you all for joining me on this wild journey. I hope we can discuss some of these points in the comments like adults and truly try to grasp this wild situation we are all in. There are extremes on both sides from "get over it, the squeeze happened" to a cult like mentality on the other extreme. I hope through discussion we can find the moderate approach and further understand the market mechanics at play.
Thanks for your time
WARNING: Until the squeeze business is over for good, this is a very volatile and risky play. Joining now for the hope of a potential round 2 squeeze should only be done in a speculative manner with money you are willing to lose. This is more akin to a gamble than it is investing. I think the current market price is fair given the future prospects of the company but do your own DD, I will not be releasing any until this squeeze is put to rest.
TL;DR: I am still bullish on this scenario even at 42%, if it really is 78% then I am extremely bullish. There are a plethora of upcoming catalysts that could reignite the squeeze but even if none are powerful enough, with Cohen's new direction we could expect good news for quite some time forcing shorts to exit on a more spread out timeline.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. I do not wish to sway your opinion in either direction. I simply seek to examine this interesting and volatile situation via crowd sourcing. What you do with your money is entirely up to you.

I saw u/Unlucky-Prize post about the technical factors for $GME and felt inspired to make a post about the reasons why I‘m long this stock, which is the fundamentals. I don’t do options or techincal analysis so please refer to other posts for that info.
$GME had been on my radar for quite some time but I finally dipped my toes in two weeks ago. The basis for that wasn’t the potential for a short squeeze or short interest but the underlying fundamentals behind $GME. I had posted a long comment in a previous thread and will expand on that to explain why I’m bullish long term for $GME. I hope this helps. This post is meant to be a personal opinion and not advice to buy or sell Gamestop.
🐻 Case:

1. Digital sales will make Gamestop the next Blockbuster.

The digital game sales argument, like all 🐻 arguments, are weak. The shift to digital will possibly occur in the next console cycle. So maybe the 🐻 are right, but they’re right in 8 years which means they’re wrong now. Additionally digital sales growth has decelerated and are returning to pre-covid levels as more people go back to stores. This trend should continue if the pandemic improves. Additionally game publishers don’t care about the fractionally larger margins from selling digital direct. They only care about moving as many units as quickly as possible. If they could sell the games on floppy disks they would. Go read the public filings for any game publisher and they will tell you that they only care about selling what customers want and guess what, they still want physical.
Blockbuster died because Carl Icahn got involved, killed Blockbuster’s attempt to pivot to a Netflix model by offering an online rental service and Blockbuster’s old business model relied on late fees. Icahn insisted that Blockbuster's greatest asset was its physical location and late fees, killed the pivot and forced them to triple down on their old strategy. Carl ended up losing 98% of his investment in Blockbuster. There continues to be demand for physical movie rentals as evidenced by Red Box locations and Netflix still has a few million dvd by mail subscribers.
Gamestop has also recently started to pivot away from software sales into other areas and now software sales now make up large minority of Gamestop's total sales. They're pivoting more towards physical goods and not just Funko Pops but also plan to expand more into new areas like PC gaming and hardware.
Everyone knows that they signed a revenue agreement with Microsoft where Gamestop will get a cut of the lifetime revenue from Xbox Game Pass Ultimate. This shouldn't sour the relationship with Sony or Nintendo. If anything, Sony and Nintendo should be compelled to offer a similar revenue share agreement because Gamestop will inevitably push Microsoft products if Gamestop stand to profit more from it. This will be a bigger deal in later years as console availability increases and consumers actually deciding to cross shop consoles as opposed to getting whichever new one is available right now. Sony and Nintendo won't stop selling products through Gamestop because of this agreement with Microsoft, it's too large of a sales channel to give up.

1. Gamestop will go bankrupt

This is highly unlikely to happen. Gamestop managed to survive the single worst brick and mortar retail sales environment in modern history and ended the year with a cash surplus of a few hundred million. Now its the new year and the beginning of a new console cycle. This console cycle should last as long as the previous ones which is close to a decade, plus or minus a few years. During that time, they will be printing money hand over fist selling consoles, new games, used games, accessories, protection plans, etc.

1. Brick and mortar retail is dead. Gamestop locations are shutting down left and right, this must mean they're going bankrupt.

Gamestop's average lease durations are actually quite short. A lot of brick and mortar shops have lease duration lasting a decade but the average lease duration for Gamestop is just 2-4 years. This allows them to close underperforming stores and open new ones very quickly.
Gamestop's saw e-commerce grow by 250% last quarter. The company has been and continues to pivot towards a "digital-first, omni-channel ecosystem for games and entertainment"
🐂 Case
This MOASS could be long and protracted like Tesla in all of 2020 as many continue to bet against Gamestop, instead of a sharp spike like Volkswagen, where Porsche played a large role in spiking the share price. Keep in mind that at 1x sales, the share price should be $80-100. Compare that with another retailer Chewy, which has a p/s of 6-7x. Pet products also has a much lower TAM than gaming.
This isn’t even factoring in a complete turnaround that RC has to be planning. Look at the newest board composition. Newest members are Reggie (my body is ready), the head of cloud 9 esports, and the current president Petsmart and Chewy. board member. Ask yourself, are these the people that would join the board of a company that is expected to die in 5 years due to digital game sales.
This has moved beyond a short squeeze yolo to a long term hold. If RC succeeds in transforming this into the next Chewy, you’re looking at a 20x multiple. This is based on fundamentals and industry tailwinds. I added 10k shares weeks ago and added 20k shares at $38 because this thing is going much higher and idgaf about a few bucks in share price right now. Also don’t attempt to time the market because you could be left behind at the launchpad.
Simply put, if I told you there was a business that served a $200 billion total addressable market with very discerning and loyal customers with a lot of disposable income to spend on this market. They have over 5,000 retail locations all across the world. Last quarter, they saw Ecommerce grow by nearly 300% and ended a year where many other brick and mortar retailers went bankrupt with hundreds of millions of dollars in extra cash. This company has a database called PowerUp consisting of tens of millions of customers that pay them a yearly premium membership. They're starting a multiyear pivot into several new growing areas and have new board members that are industry leaders in each of those respective areas at the start of a new product launch cycle that will last a decade. A young visionary founder who made his billions by creating a customer centric experience that defeated Amazon, who is well known to focus on one idea to the point of obsession, just became this company's largest shareholder and now controls the board. I tell you this company trades at .5 sales. Would you short or long this company?
TLDR: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 But not because of the MOASS.
Edit: I forgot I had 5000 shares in my YOLO account so position is actually 35,000 GME

Alright folks, here's the comprehensive guide about the BB products, revenue details, customers, and what's in the store in the future. It's quite a lengthy one, please bare with me as you read and this is the first time I looked up regarding a company at this depth.
Some background on the John Chen, who took up a massive challenge when he was the CEO for Sybase where the stock price was around 4-5$. But when he sold off to SAP it was around 65$, although it took 10 years to accomplish. He understands the business quite well and knows where to focus to generate more revenue and certainly be the best in what they do and provide the best to their customers.

Why should companies embrace BB products?

• Best-in-class security
• Safety
• Reliability

Achievements:

• 18 of the G20 governments as customers
• Leader in EPP sector
• Only software company to attain various security certifications from US Govt
• BlackBerry’s solutions address over 96% of the collective threats (Frost & Sullivan research data)
• 19 out of 25 OEM’s are using BB QNX products

Ref: https://imgur.com/OgrCGNg
Achievements in 2019 (According to 10-k report):

• Named as a Leader in Gartner’s 2019 Magic Quadrant for Unified Endpoint Management Tools for the fourth consecutive year
• Collaboration with Ansys to support BlackBerry QNX’s “RTOS” for connected and autonomous vehicles
• WM Motor to embed BlackBerry’s QNX Neutrino Realtime Operating System and other BlackBerry QNX software products within the company’s third-generation SUVs
• Integration of the QNX Platform for Digital Cockpits in MARELLI Electronics China’s eCockpit and Digital Cluster solution
• Reece Group is now using BlackBerry Cylance technology to protect thousands of endpoints across its retail stores and offices in Australia and the United States
• Agreement with ETAS GmbH, a subsidiary of Bosch, to cooperate on the joint development and marketing of an automotive software platform based on the AUTOSAR Adaptive standard
• Deeper partnership with Jaguar Land Rover for the use of the Company’s AI and machine learning technologies, BlackBerry QNX software and BlackBerry Cybersecurity Consulting services
• LG Electronics Inc. to accelerate the deployment of connected and autonomous vehicle technology for automotive OEMs and Tier 1 vendors
• SYNNEX Corporation to distribute the BlackBerry Enterprise Mobility Suite in the United States and accelerate partner recruitment for the BlackBerry Enterprise Partner Program
• BlackBerry Limited announced that the NATO Communications and Information (NCI) Agency has awarded a contract for BlackBerry’s SecuSUITE® for Government to encrypt the conversations of its technology and cyber leaders

Certifications
Let's highlight the security certifications BB got in 2020.
Before you read about the certifications which BB got, let this statement sink in deeply

No other software vendor in the cybersecurity space has been awarded more security certification by the US Government than BlackBerry.

In Q3 2020, BlackBerry UEM achieved the National Security Agency, NSA, commercial solution for classified program approval. This adds to the portfolio of US government certifications we have received for BlackBerry UEM including the NIAP-certification, the Department of Defense Information Network Approved Product List, which I think we talked about last quarter, DoDIN APL, FedRAMP and FIPS 140-2.
Context from Q3 2020 earnings call:
Recognition
As you see from multiple research firms, BB stands out in what are they doing
Ref:
https://imgur.com/2CMg3OV
https://imgur.com/qE13Y32

Which Markets BB has and will be targeting?

• IoT
• Cybersecurity
• Connected transportation
• Healthcare
• Financial services
• Government markets
• Energy
• Oil
• Gas

What Products are offered by BB?

I'll share brief info about the below products specific to QNX itself
QNX OTA:
QNX Over the Air (OTA) is a customized remote software update solution addressing the increasingly complex requirements of embedded system manufacturers. It can be tailored to seamlessly and securely update and manage endpoints on a variety of embedded systems.
QNX Acoustics Management Platform:
Design and manage the total vehicle sonic experience with a pure software solution designed to run on general-purpose application processor cores for cost-effective high-fidelity sound.
QNX Multimedia Suite:
If the OEM or developers would like to use a framework to build multimedia players.
QNX Black Channel Communications:
It provides reliable data transmission and consumption and greatly reduces the scope of certification while eliminating the need to have a safety certified network stack. It's critical across automotive, robotics, industrial controls, and medical device industries. It can run on QNX® OS (SDP 7.0 or QOS 2.1), Linux® or SafeRTOS.
QNX ADAS:
Integrates sensor feeds from diverse sources (Camera, Radar, LiDAR, IMU, GPS sensors, etc.) into your critical embedded systems, including autonomous driving applications.
RADAR:
Launched in 2016, it is a complete asset tracking solution providing reliable visibility to trailer, chassis, containers and equipment. These ruggedized devices are easy-to-install, low maintenance and long-lasting to minimize operational disruptions and maximize your ROI.
How it’s different from rest of the competitors:

• High volume of collection, up to 100 times more than other solutions in the market
• It is designed for cloud-based – cloud-hosted business analytics applications, and reporting in one integrated and scalable platform
• Long lasting battery, its modular architecture, and the ease of installation

Do check this post about description of the below products: https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l4ehan/blackberry_dd/

• QNX Products
• QNX OS
• QNX Hypervisor
• UEM
• UES
• Blackberry Spark

How can the BB retain leading position in different sectors?

The Company’s goal is to remain a leader in regulated industries and other core verticals by continuing to extend the functionality of its secure BlackBerry Spark® software platform (UEM + UES).

How does the EV Sector Exponential Growth help BB?

Well, the 2020 to 2022 is a period for gaining significant momentum in the Smart EV sector and which shall rapidly accelerate from 2023 to 2025. As we are noticing multiple companies in EV sector trying to launch their products.
Most of the companies would love to be part of the growing EV sector as it just the beginning excluding TESLA. They will eventually develop products/platforms for OEM's and Tier1 and provide it as a service.
As EV sector evolves more, we should see more partnerships across other companies which aren't part of BB yet might be inclined to use at least one product. As the BB product offerings are diverse and the customer success stories about how they have played a role while manufacturing their own EV products with minimal efforts can boost the marketing efforts.
Chen stated they are going after the other 6 OEM's which aren't using the Blackberry yet. Currently, BlackBerry QNX has design wins with 19 of top 25 Electric Vehicle OEMs, who together have 61% of EV market.

How is BB coping up during the COVID?

The company expects BlackBerry QNX revenue to be negatively impacted by a slowdown in automotive market related to the COVID-19 pandemic, the impact of which could be partially offset by increased customer demand for the Company’s endpoint security and productivity solutions that support business continuity and remote working environments, including the BlackBerry Spark platform, SecuSUITE and BlackBerry AtHoc.

What's upcoming and where is BB focusing strategically?

The Company is developing a concept system to integrate BlackBerry Spark capabilities, including AI and machine learning technologies, with BlackBerry QNX automotive solutions. Have to watch out for more information during the earnings calls.

How was the Customers growth among BB products?

QNX:
QNX was acquired by BB in 2010, right from that moment, BB started its journey in Automotive industry. Initially, it has launched Infotainments and Telematic under QNX product category and it was deployed on leading car manufacturers. It started branching out and was able to offer more products under QNX. Now it is has aligned itself very well for the next gen EV cars.
Adoption of QNX products from 2016 to 2020:

• 2016 - 50 Million
• 2017 - 60 Million
• 2018 - 120 Million
• 2019 - 150 Million
• 2020 - 175 Million

As we see, the growth has been substantial, and we can expect it grow more as we see more cars from new manufacturers and from existing ones and also automotive driving platforms especially in EV sector. There are currently 1.4 billion cars approximately. In 2018, approximately 4.2 million heavy commercial vehicles and just over 20 million light commercial vehicles were produced throughout the world.
It’s estimated to have at least 470 million cars by 2025.
Link: https://www.itsdigest.com/470-million-connected-vehicles-road-2025.
The market share is about 10% in total across automotive
Customers:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NQQ6lkby32kHu2tWqbfYqlDEYy90KI6QfsyYd8moYjo/edit?usp=sharing
IVY:
KARMA Automotive is the first customer to use this product.
Link: https://www.blackberry.com/us/en/company/newsroom/press-releases/2020/blackberry-collaborating-with-amazon-web-services-to-demonstrate-safe-secure-and-intelligent-connected-vehicle-software-platform-for-in-vehicle-applications
Chen stated that there won't be much of the revenue growth from IVY until 2023.

Under the terms of our agreement, BlackBerry will own all the commercial relationships with customers and will share revenues with AWS.
The target is to be in the 2023 year’s auto model, with possibly potentially some professional services prior to it. While it is too early for us to provide a revenue outlook, we are confident that BlackBerry IVY addresses a very large market opportunity that will greatly increase our ASP.

Cylance:
It is part of the Blackberry Spark product under UES category
Typically, Cylance subscription period is 1 to 3 yrs. based on the deal’s BB made.
Leader in EPP (Endpoint Protection Platform) and they are able to catch with competitors in EDR (Endpoint Detection and Response)
Customers:
Added 279 new customers and new active subscription customer growth was about 15%. Notable new customers include General Motors, Becton Dickinson, Phillips Healthcare, SKF, which is one of Sweden’s largest manufacturers, the New Zealand Defense Force and the United States Census Bureau, just to name a few.
Verizon launched their business internet secure offering, which includes our BlackBerry smart AV antivirus product and Cisco’s Umbrella security service.
Blackberry Spark:
Spark is collection of BlackBerry Cylance, BlackBerry® UEM, BlackBerry® Dynamics™ and BlackBerry® Workspaces products. BB to pushing its efforts for customers to choose this product in 2021.
Spark, as a reminder, is a combination of UEM and UES, the Unified Endpoint Security offerings. In the 2020 Q2, Q3, BB made good progress in both the government, and financial services verticals with customer wins

• U.S. Army
  • The United States Air Force, which upgraded over 90,000 users from UEM to the Spark Suite.
• U.S. Postal Service
• IRS
• Department of Energy
• Department of Justice
• Raymond James Financial
• Citibank
• German Bundesbank
• Bank of India
• Government of Rwanda
• UK Ministry of Defence
• Royal Canadian Mint
• Banco de Mexico
• New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade
• Rolls Royce
• Lloyds Bank
• Societe Générale
• Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
• American Express
• CIBC
• The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
• Qatar National Bank
• The National Commercial Bank
• Absa Bank
• The Development Bank of Singapore

In addition, they had success in verticals including healthcare and manufacturing sector.
Up on the acquisition of Cylance company, BB was able to integrate it with its existing products which will be part of UES suite. Customers are inclined to upgrade from UEM (Unified Endpoint Management) to UES (Unified Endpoint Security)
Customers are eager to get with UES:

• Deutsche Bank
• Deutsche Borse
• ConvergeOne
• Multiple ministries of the Dutch government

UEM Suite
UEM Suite was added to the Department of Defense Information Network Approved Products List (DoDIN APL). BlackBerry is the only UEM vendor that has achieved this level of approval to date. This achievement is based on the completion of cybersecurity and interoperability certifications. This approval will provide us better access and a more streamlined approval process. This should naturally lead to greater revenue opportunities going forward. The latest release of UEM has also recently achieved NIAP accreditation
AtHoc:
Zoom was one of the customers who is using AtHoc product, after we know what happened to the stock when street found out that it wasn't secure. In this way, Zoom can highly secure way to hold virtual meetings in this new work-from-anywhere environment.
Even, Microsoft Teams and ServiceNow’s Now platforms are on AtHoc. As we know, Teams market leader has 116 million active users and Service Now 51%, IT Service management.
Customers:

• NYSE
• Office of the Director of National Intelligence
• Edmonton Police Service
• US Department of Transportation

BlackBerry Radar:
In 2020, Canadian Pacific Railway agreed to deploy product on 2,000 of its domestic intermodal chassis.
In 2019, one of the top three U.S. retailers specializing in home improvement. The customer placed a 2,500 unit’s order.
In 2019 fiscal year, they have added 50 new customers and recurring revenue from the existing customers.

A big part of our competitive advantage is the BlackBerry legacy experience in designing a reliable, secure solution,” Plaat said. “That’s an important issue in this industry with high capital assets that you keep for years. The ROI is very good for a reliable solution like ours.”

Customers:

• Almon Equipment
• Titanium Transportation Group
• KreilKamp Trucking
• RightLane Carrier
• Axsun
• Matson Logistics
• CP
• New Malwa Express
• CTS (Contract Transport Services)
• Polaris Transportation Group
• XTL

BB Revenue:

Check the Spreadsheet for the Revenue Sources.
2021 Fiscal year
Note: Software and Services include these products IoT, QNX, BlackBerry Spark, AtHoc, Radar.
The revenue got impacted due to 2020 chaos especially on the QNX product side. According to the earning calls. There are still on track to maintain the gross margin over 70% and dollar net retention rate is above 90%.
As you see, the gross margin has been consistent past few years and revenue is steadily increasing every year.
Revenue, Gross Margin, Net Income, EPS for years 2019, 2018, 2017 and 2016
Growth in Revenue from Products from 2019-2013
Notes:
In 2019, due to restructuring, BB was unable to close deals, we should see +ve in 2020.
IoT: Comprised of QNX products, UEM, & Radar
Other: Handheld Devices and Service Access Fee (SAF)
Since BB was moving away from manufacturing of devices gradually, in 2020 most of it done by third party companies. That’s why we have negative growth under Other.

Pricing for BB products

QNX Pricing:
As there are many modules under QNX, like hypervisor, ADAS, clusters, cockpit, IVI. The cost ranges anywhere from the low-single digit dollars to literally high-single digit or low-double digit dollars per module.
Trefis estimates BlackBerry generates about $4 in QNX revenue per vehicle. Automakers are only expected to ship about 62 million new vehicles this year, according to Statista Research. Assuming QNX is installed on at least half of those vehicles, BlackBerry would generate about $120 million in annual sales -- or nearly a fifth of its trailing 12-month software and services revenue -- from QNX this year.
Link: https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/07/investors-overreacting-blackberry-deal-with-amazon/
Unfortunately, we don't know the exact price the QNX OS costs or per say other modules under QNX. If more modules of QNX are used, then it's adds up and the Average Rate for Per Unit might be 4x or 5x.
This gives us an idea about how to get more revenue from QNX itself when the manufacturer would use other modules under QNX apart from OS.
We have already seen list of the OEM's from previous posts and in the above spreadsheet you saw list of the QNX products certain OEM's are using
IoT subscription period is typically 4 yrs.
Radar Pricing:
Estimation in 2017:
BlackBerry charges $10 to $20 per month for every trailer connected to Radar.
The Go-to-Market objective is to have approximately a 50-50 split in Radar sales between BlackBerry’s channel partners and its direct sales force. BlackBerry Radar partners typically sell only this particular solution.
Recently, BB was able to expand channel ecosystem to more than 12 channel partners, this new partnership might help BB capture more of the logistics and transportation area.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/blackberry-radar-expands-channel-ecosystem-with-new-partners-301052631.html
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-blackberry-recovery/born-again-blackberry-canadian-icon-hopes-to-ride-trucks-to-growth-idUSKBN1901P1
Cylance Pricing:
Cylance might charge 55$ per endpoint per year.
Announced that Forrester found that BlackBerry Cylance’s AI-driven endpoint security products delivered a 99 percent return on investment. We will see more revenue in 2021 as we shared earlier that customers who bought UEM are excited about UES too.
At present, the market share is below 1%.
Ref: https://www.datanyze.com/market-share/ep--359
The outlook of the Cylance in 2021 and further
Projected Product Sector Revenue Growth by 2025:
QNX:
According to survey, the Global In-Vehicle Infotainment Market size is expected to reach $42.7 billion by 2025 (This is where we shall see more competition from different OEM manufacturers as they build their own products)
Global Market Insights, Inc. has recently added a new report on automotive operating system market which estimates the global market valuation for automotive OS will cross US$ 4.5 billion by 2026
And the QNX OS (Just the OS) segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of nearly 15% from 2020 to 2026
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/11/24/2132346/0/en/Automotive-OS-Market-to-hit-USD-4-5-Bn-by-2026-Global-Market-Insights-Inc.html
Endpoint Protection (Cylance):
The global endpoint security market is expected to grow from 13.58 billion $ in 2020 to 19.24 billion $ in 2025 at a CAGR of 7.6% during the forecast period.
https://www.marketdataforecast.com/market-reports/endpoint-security-market.
Assuming the market share in endpoint increases to ~3%. It can be around 577 million
Asset Management (Radar):
Global asset tracking market will reach $36.3B by 2025, growing at 15% CAGR
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/03/04/1995009/0/en/Global-Asset-Tracking-Market-2020-2025-Insights-Into-Technologies-Solutions-and-the-Ecosystem-Including-Major-Players.html
We have to know what the priority level for BB for this product and how much market share they are targeting in the upcoming years. It’s quite early to say about it and the contribution to the revenue is insignificant compared to other products.
Challenges:
QNX:
Toyota, VW, Mercedes Benz have started taking route of AGL (Automotive Grade Linux) which is an open source (free to use) which implies the QNX market share in OS is waning. These are big manufacturers and how blackberry shall adapt is wait and see game.
There is always a case where companies might decide not to use more of the QNX modules just the OS, this will impact the Average Selling Price (ASP) per car as well as the revenue since those modules add up 4x-5x ASP.
IVY:
Revenue from Blackberry IVY shall be more reflective from 2023, stated by Chen. So, there is uncertainty in this area and no revenue estimate. We have to see how this partnership plays out how companies are willing to adopt cloud platform for insights and management of the automotive software’s.
Cylance:
Currently, the market is highly competitive, and BB has to make it way to top 10 and capture more market share. In 2021, it shall unfold more about it as we are seeing rapid growth in IoT sector across various sectors.
The BB is in the right position to capture more of the automotive market and we have to see how it shall play out in coming years when EV sector is full blown and more cars are delivered, and security threats increase. Also, it offers the endpoint protection, which certainly companies can benefit but not necessarily the SMB which are driven through e-commerce platforms.
Radar:
It’s barely scratching the surface in this sector and as there are bigger sharks who have been in the market for long time.
In the second quarter of fiscal 2019, the Company previously stated that it expected to generate $100 million in cumulative revenue from its BlackBerry Radar asset tracking solution over the next three years. The Company no longer expects to generate this revenue within this time frame. (This is a set back and there are other competitors who have been in the Logistics and Transportation Industry for quite some time).
In general, BB has to pitch itself more aggressively in other sectors especially in Medical, Industrial, Oil and Energy. Considering the certifications they have and the clients they serve.
Thanks to OP's and go give a read at these DD's too:
https://new.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/ks4s3s/bb_king_the_blast_from_the_past_with_the/
https://new.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l37ktg/bb_weekend_due_diligence_confirmation_bias/
Target Price in 2021: 25-30 (by not considering crazy valuations into account). I personally believe if the IVY platform and Spark product revenue increases then we can certainly see the stock price 4x-5x in coming years.
Positions: 400 shares @ 12 and 2 Jan 20 2023 SP 15. I plan to add more as I see the potential and growth in the newly introduced products.
Disclaimer: This is not a financial advice, I'm merely a random person who loves BB and would like to see this company fly to new heigths. Cheers to everyone!!
Edit1: thanks u/melbogia, added the date which I missed earlier for the calls.

Hi all, I feel like it's time to share my opinions and thoughts after letting this subreddit cooldown for sometime. Around February of last year, I began work on a massive passion project developing https://NETRUNNER2077.net after following this title and being a massive fan of CD Projekt Red from the original Witcher title. When they announced Cyberpunk 2077 would be their next IP I was immensely excited as I'm a huge Cyberpunk genre nerd in all forms from art, movies, anime, philosophies, books, cultural significance and relation, aesthetics and more. So having my all time favorite game company work on a huge open world Cyberpunk "RPG" instantly generated immediate interest.
Now where to even begin?
Please note, I've yet to purposely "finish" Cyberpunk 2077 in hopes of CD Projekt Red making a strong come back later on in the future, and hopes that they'll eventually release a REDKit for modders in order to create some incredible work and help flesh the game world out. I have put around close to 200 hours into Cyberpunk 2077 exploring the different Life Paths and their effects on the world. Lots of walking, No fast travel and tons of time lost in an attempt to "Immerse" myself in the experience. I refused to finish Cyberpunk 2077's Main Story for several reasons. The largest being I'm typically against playing titles that are obviously not complete. On top of that, I've invested so much time and effort into researching, designing, learning web design and working towards building an awesome platform in order to properly cover Cyberpunk 2077 with a safe bet of thinking "This couldn't possibly be bad" only to coming around to reality very shortly after and that this title truly needed ATLEAST another year of development time.
There are aspects of Cyberpunk 2077 that are, in my opinion, worthy of putting it in the all time legendary category of games. Then.. other parts that make games from even 20 years ago look superior. It's a very "unbalanced" experience. So much that it takes the top spot for me personally. My experience of Cyberpunk 2077 is that it feels unfinished and some what rushed in many areas, if that isn't obvious enough already. But the thing is, as many of you probably already know, it just isn't bugs. Features, Content, Weapons, Immersive Elements, AI, RPG Elements and Game Design Systems are flat out missing or just straight up broken entirely.
Here are just a few of the elements that I have a problem with personally..

• Weapon Balance - Many weapons are straight up overpowered and unbalanced and easy to find early in the game.
• Weapon Variety - CD Projekt Red claimed that the game would have a large variety of weapons - this ended up not being the case with a few showcased weapons not implemented in the game itself although they exist in the game files. Also to note most "Iconic" weapons are just a reskin.
• Cyberware Balance & Variety - Same thing as above can also account for Cyberware. Outside of Cyber Arm implants, which has its own bulletin
• Very Hard Difficulty - Feels like a joke when compared to a lot titles out there. This is coming from someone who chose Style over Substance in all three playthroughs, typically never using a Jacket, Helmet or Mask. I'm no means great at games. This doesn't help with the extremely bugged out AI.
• Perk Balance and Design - All around, most perks feel unrewarding and feel vastly unbalanced, once again making it pretty easy to feel overpowered pretty quickly early on, especially if you end up going down the Quickhacking Sub Skill Tree.
• Pedestrian, Water and Car Damage Physics / Collision needs a serious second look - Water as of Patch 1.1 is still a pretty much nothing more than a transparent texture.. fire a bullet, a person, hell.. a fucking car and there is not a single pinch of reaction from that what so ever. The collision from bullets, other cars, people and objects is just bad for a 2020 game.
• UI - I'm usually not one to complain about an unintuitive UI but it's quite clunky that takes some time to get around and use to.
• Artificial Intelligence - It's either extremely bugged or just barely there. It's very bare bones in EVERY NON SCRIPTED aspect of the game. This has already been covered a thousand times so there's no need to go deep into detail with this. Vehicles, Police, Pedestrians, Etc.
• Lack of Immersive Elements - One of CD Projekt Red biggest selling points for many fans was making it sound like there would be many ways to Immerse yourself in Cyberpunk 2077. That is not the case outside of World Design, World Building and Story Telling. It's really hard to actually "Immersive yourself and Roleplay" You can't sit at a bar and grab a drink in real time. You can't grab food anytime you like and eat in real time, the few vendors there are in the game completely rip you out of the game world and into a standard UI vendor menu. Installing Cyberware is just a click of a button in a menu after the initially Eye and hand implant, There's bare minimum interactivity with NPC's or the world itself for that matter, Not a single soul uses an umbrella that I've witnessed when it rains in Night City, There's little to no sense in danger outside of the repetitive Gang hotspots... the list could go on and on with this one.
• 90% of the choices you make during Cyberpunk 2077 feel like they have little to no consequence - While it's true that there are SOME choices you make in this game change certain outcomes (For the most part - the end of the game as reported by many) It feels like a very bare bones system that doesn't seem fleshed out at all. The majority of the time you're only given the "Illusion of Choice" This was very disappointing to witness. Life path decisions feel utterly meaningless later on down the road.
• Side Quests are typically very short when compared to Witcher 3 - On top of that, there are a handful of stunning Side quests but it was very disappointing when a large majority of them lasted around 5-10 minutes at most. If you're looking for another Baron equivalent quest line.. It ain't here chief.
• The Main Quest is far too short for a game that attempts to coin itself as being "RPG" - Regardless of not finishing, its pretty obvious that you do a small handful of Main Story Quests (Outside of the Optional ones) and you've reached the end.
• Life Paths do not largely impact your overall experience and the way the game and story unfolds - Outside of the VERY beginning of the game, which can roughly take around 10 to 20 minutes to do.. and maybe a single quest depending on your lifepath, They ended up being extremely disappointing. You really aren't missing out on doing multiple life paths as you can basically "choose" your ending at the epilogue of the game and just restart from a save and make a different decision to see different outs. AKA making all the decisions you made throughout the game feel meaningless because in the end, its only what you choose during the epilogue that really matters.
• A Second Note on Life Paths and Dialogue Impacting Secondary and Third Playthroughs - Very few side main quests can make a small difference by the end and there is no tension build up for your dialogue options that will lead to consequences that make you afraid of your choices later down the story.
• What the hell happened to Meredith Stout? - If you went down the route of siding with Meredith Stout during the Maelstrom Mission and have followed Cyberpunk 2077 for some time you were probably completely thrown off as to how cut off that whole "follow up" went down. Very disappointing.
• Dynamic Vehicle Chases / Fights are not a thing and were removed from the game - The one Scav chase in the beginning of the game is scripted.. and that's about it, hell.. you can just sit in the vehicle and watch it crash into the wall without doing a single thing. What the hell? Sorry guys, If you choose to mess with gangs.. they're not going to hunt you down, they aren't going to mow you down while you're in your vehicle. It was all bullshit.
• Gangs / Corps will ignore the actions you take against their gang / corp and there are no repercussions for your actions against them at any point in the game - This goes with the one above, but I figured I'd expand on it more. Remember when we thought siding with Maelstrom would cause dire consequences in the long run with Meredith and Militech? Guess what? it definitely isn't a thing. You can go about your business in Night City and not have to worry about that for a split second your entire playthrough, no matter who you decide to fuck over.
• Side Gigs are typically just filler content - Very little variety and the only way to really extend your playtime if you choose to not walk the streets of a dead feeling night city attempting to immerse yourself in the world. Which is totally okay if there were also other things to do, but for the most part its just generic Ubisoft tier filler content. There are a very SMALL amount of unique ones with actual dialogue.
• Netrunner Enemy Types - The worst they do is upload a low quality damage hack and that's it. Half the time they scan your location and nothing happens. No cool shit like having to tap a button repeatedly to stop you from pulling the trigger on yourself after being hacked.
• Pacifica is obviously unfinished - Well, it's not hard to tell that Pacifica wasn't complete after the game came out, I fully know the lore behind what happened to Pacifica, but I don't see how it's acceptable that there are literally unfinished areas from game development.
• MAX-TAC and Trauma Team were epic during the early Scav Hideout mission, but that's it - Not much else to say here other than they had some really cool "scripted" events during and after that mission.. but other than that you'll see Trauma Team with their ships in the same exact spots you find them and MAX-TAC basically just spawn in as higher tier cops when your wanted level is high enough.
• Cyberpsycho Quest line was a missed opportunity - Quite a disappointing quest after tracking down 17 Cyberpsychos regardless if you choose to let them live or kill them. They could of gone deep into some gritty cyberpunk writing and mystery with this but their approach to this was pretty underwhelming and surface level with no depth other than some logs you find, but this can be said about MANY of the quests during the game.
• Collecting Cars is just more checkmark optional filler - Hey? Want another vehicle? Let me flood your quest list and phone letting you know you can GPS right to the location and pick it up. Outside of the few hidden vehicles in the game, Collecting cars was pretty disappointing. You literally walk up to location and buy them, no interactivity with NPC's, just click and buy. Might as well of just given a option to have the vehicle self deliver to the non existent garage where all my other cars reside right?
• The Garage outside your Megabuilding serves no purpose and doesn't store your vehicles - Can't find your vehicles there now can you? Yeah..
• The 6 Month Montage felt like a giant slap in the face, quite possibly cut missions from early game and is the exact SAME no matter what life path you choose - Going down any life path will grant you the exact same Street Kid themed montage. It really feels like these were cut missions that would of fleshed Jackie Welles as a character out so much better.
• Cyberpunk 2077 feels more like a decent "Action Adventure" Game rather than a true "RPG" - Not too hard to see this. While it has RPG elements and Dialogue, it's definitely not on the level of Dues Ex, Vampire Bloodlines, Divinity, Elder Scrolls, Fallout (3 & NV). After you exit the prologue it is all downhill after that.
• There isn't much to find and see outside of map markers - While there are a handful of secrets, schematics and weapons it doesn't feel very rewarding when finding these things because of how the weapon, items, currency and game design elements were implemented where things are either easily replaced or you're already easily overpowered as it is.
• Cyberpunk tries to be too many things and falls short of most of them - With the Ambitious goals, talk and promises.. The one thing I hoped it would be was a truly Ambitious RPG with some really good Immersive elements. I definitely wasn't expecting the world, but it's just sad as to how many elements it falls flat on.
• Black Market Cyberware isn't a thing - You see those four options you have for Cyber arms? Yep, That's it. Nothing else, Everything shown through trailers is what you get.
• Brain Dance was a MASSIVE missed opportunity - It's pretty obvious that there was at one time far more to brain dance outside of story missions. Hell, it could of found a way to replace the Gwent Mini Game, but alas - In the end it was used for only story missions and not a single side experience on its own.
• Night City just feels like a extremely gorgeous backdrop to a Somewhat Linear story - I've already covered several reasons as to why I feel this way.
• It feels more like "Johnny's Story" rather than V's Story - While the writing is indeed excellent most of the time. I personally feel like this story is more about Johnny rather than V.
• The sense of urgency after the prologue really makes it hard to "Role Play" V correctly. This conflicts with previous statements made by CDPR "Really wanting players to Role Play the character"- The way this was approached was quite confusing, as CDPR offers this massive world yet having a huge urgency that you need to figure out a solution before you die in a few weeks.
• The World does not feel "Alive" by any means.. Lack of Dynamic Events - The world itself just feels pretty dead outside of flying vehicles and ads going off every 4-5 seconds. There is VERY little dynamic content like you see in RDR2 where they put a huge emphasis on the world feeling "alive" and never knowing what could happen.
• Customization is severely lacking from a world that begs for more of it - Luckily if you're on PC, a lot of these issues have been solved with customizable Cyber arms, More tattoos, Hair Styles, Face and Neck Cyberware and more. If you're on Console though, you're sadly shit out of luck. The lack of visible Cyberware for V was very surprising. No visible Cyber legs, No visible Netrunning gear outside of "Suits", etc.
• Jackie Welles was a brilliant character that was quickly thrown away - Let alone the massive spoiler they decided to showcase via the 2019 E3 CG Trailer, It was extremely disheartening to know that saving Jackie was never an option seeing as we were barely given any time with him and a wasted opportunity for possible great plot points. This could of been remedied by actually going through the missions played out in the 6 month montage. For players unfamiliar following Cyberpunk 2077 for so long, I would assume losing Jackie wasn't near as impactful for them.
• Cyberware Arm implants are just alternative weapons for the most part - Which pretty much become useless unless you choose to use Gorilla Fists the whole game. No Utility from them, No useful tool elements, Just weapons that become obsolete very fast.
• For a Dystopian World that is hyper sexualized, there sure is a lack of sexual content - Not hard to miss this, You have two Joy Toys and two high end JT's later in the game to choose from in the entirety of Night City outside of the selection of Story related characters you come across. Hell, even a lot of characters that dance on poles in the world are fully clothed. Let alone any real Adult themed clubs.
• Trains were a missed opportunity - Let's face it, there were obviously systems in place at one point in development to have an actual train system where you could ride around Night City and be able to enjoy the huge vistas that it offers. Now you can just watch one from a distance disappear right through a building.
• Verticality? Sort of..? - Take your Home Megabuilding for example and also prime example of cut areas and content. There were suppose to be several areas of verticality to explore in the world and areas and this is just not the case anymore.
• "You'll never run into cool areas where you'll want to get in there but can't" - Yeah, that was definitely not the case now was it? There are several areas you would think would be accessible but just aren't or at any point in the game are.
• Acid Rain? Yeah.. No. - Remember this? Yeah I haven't witnessed it either. But hey, at least there's acid fog right?

Then you have this huge dystopic metropolis of a city which looks absolutely phenomenal. I think it'll truly go down in history for its amazing design and the techniques they used to craft this insanely dense city. There's truly nothing like visiting Night City and it surely is a unique experience from a VISUAL and AUDIO design standpoint. The writing is solid most of the time as well. It really just feels like they had a very direct deadline and were forced to wrap systems up after changing the core game several times over and over again which caused loads of bugs in the code. I really hope when I come back to this game in a year it'll be quite different but after what CDPR pulled I find it extremely hard to trust and have faith in them.
I had so much faith and love in this company that I ended up spending countless months building, designing, and launching NETRUNNER 2077 almost single handedly but after playing Cyberpunk 2077 for weeks, I couldn't even bring myself to write a review over it. Honestly, I would've been way too critical and harsh. Especially after having to monitor and dissect everything that was "said" to be in the game and how systems were suppose to "work" and it ended up being nothing like that what so ever. At this point and time I have no motivation or confidence to continue the platform due to the recent events and actions of CDPR's upper management as well as the highly manipulative marketing that made Cyberpunk 2077 only a glass half full of what it was intended to actually be.
I made sure to set my expectations accordingly from what was told from developers to fans via interviews, deep dives and what was reported to sources that was approved by CDPR. With that and the EXTREMELY misleading marketing, it leaves an extremely sour taste in my mouth. I really want to have faith that they can turn this title around, but something feels off. I understand from a legal perspective that they probably cant at the moment. I just hope one day that this game can truly live up to its potential. There is an incredible foundation set, but it's ultimately up to CD Projekt Red if they choose to deliver their originally intended vision.
For other upper management in game development out there possibly reading this- if your game isn't finished, please market it correctly as an "Early Access Game" and not a finished product. That is straight up lying and deceiving fans and consumers out there. It isn't right, and needs to stop.