I seem to remember someone doing this a few years back and really enjoying it, so I thought I'd give it a shot with the condensed schedule leaving so many games on the schedule each night. I'm ranking each game in three categories: competitiveness, importance, and style points/storylines (which includes star power, the style of basketball, and any intriguing stories to watch). I'll include a survey at the end where you can predict the winners of each game!
Let me know if this is something you'd like to see again!
10) Milwaukee Bucks (1-1) vs. New York Knicks (0-2) at 7:30 pm EST
Where to Watch: League Pass
Spread: Milwaukee -11
Last Meeting: January 14th, 2020. RJ Barrett drained five threes and Bobby Portis scored 20 off the bench, but the Bucks dominated the Knicks at Fiserv Forum 128-102. The two teams combined for a whopping 79 points in the third quarter.
The Bucks have won their last five meetings with the Knicks, with the last New York win coming in an overtime thriller at the Garden in December of 2018.
Competitiveness: A championship contender that dismantled the Warriors by 40 facing the Knicks on the tail end of a back-to-back. Not much else to say here. 1.5/10
Importance: This game is essentially a scheduled win for the Bucks, and a chance for the Knicks to test their young guys and let them grow up a little. Unfortunate that Obi Toppin will be on the sidelines for this one. 2/10
Style Points: The high-flying Bucks offense has been off to another hot start, topping the 120 point mark in both of their games. The Knicks' young guns have shown promise and made so flashy plays, but they also turn the ball over a lot. Neither team tends to foul a lot or shoot a ton of free throws, which will help game flow.
Some might keep an eye on Giannis' free throw shooting, but the real story to watch is RJ Barrett's three point accuracy. He lit it up from distance against Indiana, but struggled mightily against Philly. Can he take a step forward in that department this season?
Bonus points for the MSG crew calling this game. 6/10
Overall Rating: 3/10
9) Brooklyn Nets (2-0) vs. Charlotte Hornets (0-2) at 7:00 pm EST
Where to Watch: NBA TV
Spread: Brooklyn -7.5
Last Meeting: February 22nd, 2020. The Nets used a third quarter explosion to turn a comfortable win into a rout as they won 115-86. Luwawu-Cabarrot led the team in scoring with 21, while Garrett Temple of all people snagged eleven boards.
Competitiveness: The Nets have steamrolled over their competition so far, blowing out the Warriors and Celtics by 20+ points. The Hornets have struggled with two losses to non-contenders, and come into this game on the wrong end of a back-to-back. 1.5/10
Importance: A contending Nets team cannot afford to drop games like this one, especially in the early part of the season when there are so many eyeballs on KD and Kyrie. The Hornets could really use a positive performance to get their season headed in the right direction. 4/10
Style Points: The Nets have stars all over the court and have looked like a juggernaut early this season, making them one of the most intriguing teams to watch, and a fun one too, as they've played fast and made lots of threes. Charlotte ranked last in pace of play last season but seems to be trying to pick things up. You'll get the Charlotte crew for this game on NBA TV, and they call a fun game.
Terry Rozier and Gordon Hayward are two guys to pay attention to- Rozier dropped 42 on a Cavs team that sucks at defending point guards. Is he headed for a breakout season? Hayward was shut down by the Thunder last night and will look to get things going. Plus LaMelo Ball! 8/10
Overall: 4.4/10
8) Golden State Warriors (0-2) vs. Chicago Bulls (0-2) at 8:00 pm EST
Where to Watch: League Pass
Spread: Golden State -2.5
Last Meeting: December 6th, 2019. Glenn Robinson III made the go-ahead layup with a minute left and a very different looking Warriors team beat the Bulls 100-98 in Chicago. Denzel Valentine was ejected in the third quarter for yelling at the Warriors' bench.
Competitiveness: The Warriors have been blown out by two great teams so far. The Bulls have been blown out by two mediocre teams and just played a deflating contest against the Pacers last night. 4.5/10
Importance: Both teams could really use their first win of the season. The Warriors cannot afford to lose to teams like the Bulls if they're going to contend for the playoffs. This probably still figures as a matchup of two non-contenders, though. 5.5/10
Style Points: The Bulls have lots of exciting young players, but they seem turnover-prone and have struggled to score. Neither team has been able to stop literally anyone on defense so far (lol thanks Golden State for taking Wiggins), so there's a chance this turns into one of those ridiculous shootouts where both teams top 70 in the first half.
Patrick Williams looked good in his first game against the Hawks, but the Pacers were able to shut him down. Watching him adjust to the breakneck pace of games and the new level of competition will be interesting. The Warriors will need to find other sources of offense besides Curry and Wiseman, and this game is a perfect chance for them to do so. Definitely opt for the Chicago broadcast if you tune in. 4.5/10
Overall: 4.8/10
** 7)Philadelphia 76ers (2-0) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (2-0) at 7:30 pm EST**
Where to Watch: League Pass
Spread: Philadelphia -6
Last Meeting: February 26th, 2020. The Sixers had to play most of the game without their two best players as Joel Embiid left in the first quarter with a sprained shoulder. The Cavs, then the worst team in the East, led the entire way and won 108-94.
Competitiveness: The Cavs look like a much better team this year as Sexton has another year under his belt and they have Drummond underneath. There's a long way to go to challenge the Sixers, though, and they played an exhausting two-overtime trench war with the Pistons last night while Philly coasted to an easy win over the Knicks. 5/10
Importance: Definitely a litmus test game for the Cavs- can they hang with Philly and prove that they can be that dangerous team no one wants to face in the east play-in tournament? The 76ers might be looking past this game as they have a big clash with Tampa Bay coming up on Tuesday. 4/10
Style Points: This game gives us two matchups between stars. Joel Embiid has been on a mission to start this season, following up his 29/14 against Washington with a 27/10 against the Knicks. His matchup with Andre Drummond will be one to watch. At point guard, Simmons-Sexton could be an even more exciting face-off. The Cavs have played a more fun style of basketball this season, using Sexton to ignite a high pressure defense that stole a win in Detroit. That double-overtime win might prove costly tonight, though, when they run out of gas against a deeper and more talented Sixers team. Bonus points for the Cavs having that really fun color guy, I guess. 6.75/10
Overall: 5.25/10
6) Minnesota Timberwolves (2-0) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (1-1) at 10:00 pm EST
Where to watch: NBA TV
Spread: Los Angeles -11
Last Meeting: December 8th, 2019. AD dropped half a hundred and LeBron put up 32 and thirteen assists as the Lakers won a 142-125 slugfest. The Wolves hung around and trailed by only seven after three quarters before LA pulled away.
Competitiveness: The Wolves are off to a surprising 2-0 start, including an impressive win in Utah last night. Most would write this off as a scheduled loss, though, with a back-to-back against the defending champs and KAT getting dinged up at the end of the Jazz game. Still, it will be interesting to see how this new-look Wolves team trades punches with AD and Bron in the first half. 6/10
Importance: The Lakers seem to finally be settling into the new season after a disappointing showing on opening night, and will be looking for another statement win. Some Wolves fans have speculated that they will rest KAT after his injury scare tonight. I'd expect him to play, but no one in Minnesota thinks they will win this game. 3/10
Style Points: Anthony Edwards going up against two of the best in the game? DLo back in LA? Upstarts against the defending champs? Top notch storylines for this game, where the first half will be a good litmus test for Minnesota, before fatigue probably sets in for guys like Edwards and Culver and the game gets pretty ugly.
Minnesota's defense looks much improved this season, and their explosive bench can keep this game fun. And you know what you're getting with the Lakers' stars. Unfortunately the NBA TV rights to this game mean most fans will get the LA crew and miss out on the top notch Fox Sports North announcers. 8/10
Overall: 5.6/10
5) San Antonio Spurs (2-0) vs. New Orleans Pelicans (1-1) at 7:00 pm EST
Where to Watch: League Pass
Spread: New Orleans -5
Last Meeting: August 9th, 2020. The Spurs and Pels faced off for a high-scoring showdown in the bubble that saw the two teams combined for 77 fourth quarter points. JJ Redick went off and hit eight threes and Zion chipped in 25, but the rest of their teammates shit the bed and the Spurs won 122-113.
Competitiveness: The Spurs are off to a fast start, most recently squeaking out an impressive win over the Raptors last night. The Pelicans have produced mixed results, but beat Tampa by a more impressive margin and have an extra day of rest. Expect a close one early, with New Orleans having a sizeable edge late. 6.5/10
Importance: Both teams figure to be in the hunt for the final playoff spots and will see each other plenty this season as they are both in the same division. I doubt the Spurs would sweat this B2B loss too much, though. 7/10
Style Points: Zion put up a highlight-worthy 32 and 14 on Christmas Day against the Heat, and the Pels look like a new team on defense, making them one of the most interesting squads to watch this year. Ingram, Redick, Hart, and Lonzo can combine for an offensive explosion at any time. The Spurs can play kind of a bland style sometimes, especially with 35 year old LaMarcus Aldridge playing on a back-to-back. Dejounte Murray, who just posted his first career triple double and looks much improved this season, will be an interesting to player to watch today. This one feels like it could be a snooze-fest or a barn-burner, with nothing in between. 6.75/10
Overall: 6.7/10
4) Boston Celtics (1-1) vs. Indiana Pacers (2-0) at 8:00 pm EST
Where to Watch: League Pass
Spread: Boston -2.5
Last Meeting: Tuesday March 10th, 2020. The Celtics were the last team the Pacers faced before Miss Rona stepped in and put a stop to the basketball for awhile. Marcus Smart made the go-ahead layup to rescue Boston in the final minute after they blew a 19 point lead, and they held on to win 114-111. Sabonis posted a 28-9-8 night for Indiana.
Competitiveness: The Celtics have the rest advantage, as they got the night off to lick their wounds after a Christmas Night Stomping at the hands of KD and Kyrie, while the Pacers had to take the floor last night and beat up on the Bulls. The Pacers figure to be in the middle of the playoff pack, while the Celtics would like to challenge the Bucks and Nets at the top, and this game will be a huge early measuring stick for both teams. The Pacers will have home floor, which makes this anyone's game. 8/10
Importance: It's never too early to have a big game for playoff seeding! The Celtics will be anxious to prove that their opening game win against Milwaukee was no fluke, while the Pacers need to show us that they can beat someone better than the Knicks and Bulls. 7.5/10
Style Points: This is where this game kind of falls short. Tatum, Kemba, Sabonis, Brown, and others all provide lots of star power, but aren't the big names featured elsewhere on this list, and both teams tend to play slower, more defensive-oriented basketball. The Celtics' thumping at the hands of the Nets is more of a story for Brooklyn than for Boston, and Indiana has maybe been the playoff team that jumped off the page less than anyone else so far. Add in a game that's only broadcast locally and that overlaps with every other game but two and this game takes a bump in a packed Sunday night slate.
Still, this should be a very good game between two playoff teams, and a fun one to tune in for down the stretch if the Pacers keep it close. 5.5/10
Overall: 7/10
T-2) Orlando Magic (2-0) vs. Washington Wizards (0-2) at 7:00 pm EST
Where to Watch: League Pass
Spread: Washington -1.5
Last Meeting: Last night! The Magic and Wizards squared off for their first of back-to-back games, which was an exciting back-and-forth contest. The Magic had the edge on the glass for much of the game, which only intensified late as they pulled away and the Wizards started pressing and taking bad shots. Beal went off for 39 points while Westbrook posted a triple-double, proving that they can in fact play together just fine.
Competitiveness: Last night's game was a see-sawing battle for most of the evening. Orlando looks like the better team and one of the more improved squads in the East, if their win against Miami is any indication. Still, beating a team on their home floor twice in a row is extraordinarily difficult, and the Wizards get to regroup and see if they can fix their rebounding woes against the same team. Expect another entertaining toss-up!9/10
Importance: Both teams are in roughly the same boat: improved squads who will likely find themselves sitting on the edge of the Eastern Conference playoff field. They won't see each other again in the first half of the season, and to pick up a quick two games on their competition would be an enormous boost for Orlando. 7.5/10
Style Points: The Wizards have been playing a fun new style with Russ and Bradley Beal sharing the load on offense, and early speculation about how the pair will get along on the court has been promising. The Magic get the job done with comparatively little star power, but Vucevic has always been one of the more underrated players in the league and deserves some recognition. Terrence Ross and Davis Bertans will be other players to keep an eye on- Ross has been extremely hot offensively in his first two games, while Bertans is a streaky shooter who can be the key to Washington winning or losing.
Perhaps the most interesting storyline, though, is the back-to-back baseball-style two game series. College leagues are trying this out across the country and we've seen in leagues like the MAAC, Mountain West, and others how hard it is for superior teams to beat the same team on consecutive nights. We've also gotten a glimpse of this in the NBA preseason. This time, the teams are very evenly matched. How will the Wizards adjust tonight? What effect will the wonky scheduling have? 8/10
Overall: 8.2/10
T-2) Dallas Mavericks (0-2) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (2-0) at 3:30 pm EST
Where to Watch: NBA TV
Spread: Los Angeles -5
Last Meeting: August 30th, 2020. The Clippers knocked the Mavs out of the first round of the playoffs, winning Game 6 after the game was moved back due to the player strike. Doncic dropped 38 and Dorian Finney-Smith chipped in 16, but only one other Dallas played cracked double digits. L.A. moved on to the next round where they cruised through the first four games against the Nuggets and...oh wait hahahahahahahahahaha.
Competitiveness: The Mavs need to get their shit together. They posted a close opening night loss against the Suns and then got their doors kicked in by the Lakers... neither of those are alarming results, but they're not the mark of a playoff team. The Clippers are angry at the way last season ended, ready to take it out on the league, and they've looked like a juggernaut with Nic Batum in their lineup, putting up convincing wins over the other top two teams in the West. Doncic can keep any game close, but he needs his teammates to carry some of the load, and the Clippers are still the clear favourites here. 6.5/10
Importance: Dallas needs to show that they can beat playoff teams, as their schedule for the next few weeks doesn't get any easier after tonight. They'll face the Heat, Rockets, Magic, Nuggets, and Pelicans. They'll have to figure out who their second and third best scoring options are in the process. Both teams will be looking for a statement win on a national stage- they're the only teams playing in the afternoon tomorrow and get a national broadcast on NBA TV. 8/10
Style Points: Kawhi... Luka... PG13.... could you really get any more star power? The Mavs looking for revenge on the team that knocked them out of the playoffs by beating them in a Sunday Showcase game (albeit on NBA TV) in their house provides a great story to go along with the stars. The Clippers have been red hot from three point range to start the season, and a Mavs defense that allowed 138 points to the Lakers will probably provide plenty of opportunities for more fireworks. If not for the potential of a lopsided final score, this would be the #1 game of the day. Tune into this instead of football on a relatively light NFL day. 10/10
Overall: 8.2/10
1) Phoenix Suns (1-1) vs. Sacramento Kings (2-0) at 9:00 pm EST
Where to Watch: League Pass
Spread: Phoenix -3.5
Last Meeting: Last night! Sacramento jumped out to a 15-2 lead, but the Suns almost immediately cut that in half, and tied the game early in the third quarter. The teams traded baskets for much of the second half, with DeAaron Fox and Buddy Hield carrying the offensive load for the Kings, who held on to win thanks to some timely offensive rebounding from Richaun Holmes.
Competitiveness: Aside from the early flurry from the Kings, these teams were as evenly matched as they come, trading punches for the entire second half. The Suns probably won't shoot 11-44 from three point range again tonight, and the Kings will probably take better care of the basketball. Regardless, we're in for a fascinating rematch of two Western Conference playoff hopefuls. 10/10
Importance: Both the Suns and the Kings are exciting young teams with opportunities to improve on last season, and both figure to end up in that 7-10 seed range in the Western Conference. These two teams won't see each other again in the first half of the season, and the Suns cannot afford to drop back-to-back contests against one of their competitors for the last couple of playoff spots. The Kings, meanwhile, were largely overlooked by fans and writers heading into the season and look poised to outperform expectations. Going 3-0 to start the season would do a lot to quiet the doubters. Regardless, this two game series will likely end up mattering down the road. 8/10
Style Points: The Suns were the talk of the NBA Bubble in August and have continued turning heads with their opening night win against the Mavs. Chris Paul's presence at point guard allows them to run a better offense than "just let Devin Booker chuck as many threes as he wants and hope Ayton rebounds enough to let us eke out a close win". They're still a fun, up-tempo team that shoots lots of threes, and finally play some good defense if that's your thing too. Sacramento announced themselves as a team not to be slept on with their opening night win against the Nuggets (thanks Will Barton), and the trend continued last night. They've attempted the fewest threes of any team through two games this year, and their game plan of Fox driving and everyone crashing the glass gives us an intriguing contrast of styles.
Like I mentioned for the Wizards game, the baseball-style series also presents us with interesting questions to answer in this game (how will the Suns adjust on the glass? can the Kings beat the same team twice in a row?), and a nerve-wracking two games between two teams who are very close in talent level and playoff hopes. Perhaps most importantly, Phoenix's broadcast is the only one on League Pass so far that has figured out their on-court audio and actually sounds normal. Keep that one in mind! 8/10
Overall: 8.7/10
I also made a Google Form where you can pick all the winners of today's games... I'll link that below. Thought it would be cool to see how Reddit does predicting the winners. I'll close the form at 3:30 when the Mavs and Clips tip off. I'll try to pare this down length-wise if and when I do this again. Thanks for reading!
Pick the winners here!

Just about all of you are weighing in on the Deshaun Watson controversy and the hiring of the new head coach. I expect Watson, or his people, to make an official trade demand soon, and we’ll see where it goes from there. They can trade him or let him sit out, if it comes to that. I hope it doesn’t get James Harden ugly.
If you’re venting and don’t ask for an answer, I’ll just run your comment.
The Watson controversy could drag on for a long time. Meanwhile, general manager Nick Caserio is getting closer to recommending a new coach to Cal McNair, who’ll sign off on it.
There’s a good chance the next head could be a coordinator in the AFC Championship Game — Buffalo defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier or Kansas City offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy. I think Indianapolis defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus is a strong candidate, too.
Q: Does anybody really know what’s going on with Watson? No doubt he is a tremendous talent and I have always gotten the impression a stand-up guy. All the news/ESPN hype aside why hasn’t he stated his position. What the news is reporting is second- or third-hand information. I don’t believe in Twitter, etc., to communicate in a situation like this. The owner, GM and Watson needs to sit down and talk. If there is a problem or issue, lay it out on the table. They all need to man up. If Watson doesn’t want to be a Texan after they gave him the contract and money, Watson needs to move on. McNair owns the club, you may not agree with how everything is done but he is the owneboss. I hope Watson decides he wants to be a Texan, but that is his call. If not he is a distraction and remember there is no I in team. — Bill B.
A: Sitting down and talking makes too much sense, Bill. So far, Watson hasn’t said what he wants. It’s all come from unnamed sources close to Watson.
Q: The rhetoric around Deshaun displeasure seems to be escalating. My personal opinion is that Deshaun shows a lot of audacity demanding that the owner of the company he works for must consult with him on who he hires to be his boss. Any other industry and he would be in the parking lot with a pink slip in his hand. But then I'm an old guy and not in tune with today’s youth. My question is in regard to his contract. If he stays mad and won't play and demands a trade are the Texans obligated to trade him, or can they not pay him for showing up for work and hold him accountable for the length of the contract? — Eric R.
A: Times have changed, Eric. Some agents and players in the NFL want it to be like the NBA, where the agents and players control so much, like who goes where. If Watson sits, he doesn’t get paid. If he sits out the season, he loses credit for the season and has to start over in 2022. He can do like James Harden and make it so ugly they have to trade him, but I can’t imagine Watson doing what Harden did. That’s not the Deshaun I’ve covered since the day he was drafted.
Q: Does McNair’s decision to keep Easterby send the message to Deshaun (and the others in the locker room that consider Jack toxic) that Easterby is more valuable to the Texans organization than Deshaun. Cal called the Easterby criticism “unjustified.” I get it — it’s unjustified, to Cal. But isn’t it totally justified to 85 to 90 of the locker room (if the Sports Illustrated article and interviews are accurate). — David M.
A: I don’t know what the other players think. Charles Omenihu said at a charity event this week he didn’t have a problem with Easterby. Brandin Cooks, who met Easterby at New England, has praised him, too. What McNair is saying is that nobody is going to tell him to hire or fire, like the owner of most businesses I know.
Q: I know you keep reassuring everyone Watson isn’t going anywhere, but the situation seems to be escalating. The Texans are finding more and interesting ways to keep the fans churned up. It is like a tempest in a teapot. One issue you touched on is will the Texans be able to attract the right candidate if they don’t get this Watson situation fixed. McNair seems to be willing to win the battle at the cost of the war. I am so disgusted with that organization for being so out of touch. One question about Easterby. Is it his ties to OB or is he doing things in the organization to create divisiveness? I can’t understand how somebody can be this polarizing to so many people within the organization and so popular with management. None of this makes sense! — Randy S.
A: You’re right about it not making sense, Randy. I think players and fans believe every bad decision OB made was also made by Easterby. I know many don’t like that Easterby has his fingerprints on so many parts of the organization rather than staying in his lane like he did with the Patriots. But McNair has given him that authority, and Easterby answers to only one person.
Q: I don’t really understand what Easterby did that was so offensive to Watson and Andre Johnson. It’s like the teacher going to the superintendent and telling him to fire the principal. But in this case, Easterby doesn’t directly work with Watson. You’ve been at the Chronicle a long time and are highly respected, but you don’t tell the publisher what to do or you wouldn't be there much longer. — Joe T.
A: You’ve got that right, Joe, but times are different today. Players and agents want control. The Texans negotiated a contract in good faith for $156 million, and they don’t want to trade Watson. They’ve done nothing but praise him to the high heavens. But if Watson is determined to get traded, it’s going to deteriorate. McNair apologized to Watson for the miscommunications on the Caserio hire. McNair and Caserio assured everyone they’d keep Watson updated on the coaching search. ESPN reported Sunday that Watson won’t return their calls. If that’s the case, how does he keep up with their coaching search?
Q: Why do people not like Easterby? Evidently McNair is one of the few who support him. Watson deserves to have some input. We wasted too many years with O’Brien. — Carole R.
A: I’m not exactly sure why they don’t like him, Carole, other than his close association with OB, being part of a total collapse in a disastrous season, having Watson and Andre Johnson taking public shots at him. Nobody has detailed what they don’t like.
Q: Watson's feud. Another employee that wants to be boss. And a rich one at that. Really never heard about Easterby until lately. Let's not forget that Cal McNair let O'Brien take over. O'Brien along with McNair, will never be forgiven here in Houston for giving Hopkins away. Hiring a coach means more to your readers/fans than anything a guy like Caserio could. You've been here. You know as much as anyone, maybe more. Can anyone point McNair in the right direction? Let's see. Caserio has been here a week! Please continue to keep us aware. — Lyn B.
A: Caserio has been in personnel for 19 of his 21 years in the NFL, Lyn. There was no personnel director more deserving of getting a chance to become personnel director than Caserio. It’s going to take a lot of work, starting with the new coach and his staff.
Q: Once again I enjoyed your Mailbag this week. Under one of the Chronicle pictures of Deshaun Watson in said he was unhappy with his lack of involvement in searches for GM and coach. How can he be unhappy when his paycheck hits the bank each week. Someone should remind him that he was hired to be the QB, not the GM or coach. And I do mean sit him down for a little owner-to-QB session and remind him who signs those paychecks since he wants to talk to McNair so badly. Sounds like another entitlement issue to me. Quite frankly, I think he gets too much credit and week after week he makes his share of mistakes that contribute to losses. Not sure why the masses are willing to look beyond that. How could the Texans give him any more than they have already? As far as his no-trade clause, the backup quarterback position might just show him a bit of humility or appreciation for where he is and what he has. Time for someone to put these prima donnas in their place. With a good GM and a good coach in place the Texans can do better without him as the starting QB. Let him watch a few Texan wins from the bench for awhile and let’s see how much input he thinks he should have in GM and head coach hires. — Will W.
A: Will, Watson won’t be sitting on the bench. If he’s here, he’s starting. If he’s not, he’s starting somewhere else.
Q: I am a Chronicle subscriber, have read your column for years. I read how the Texans re-did Andre's contract. Then he was an assistant (or similar) in recent years. I understand Andre taking up for Deshaun but I do not understand such sharpness being tweeted out. That seems completely unlike the Andre that the public knows. How was Andre so wronged? — Ed K.
A: He wasn’t wronged, Ed. I think when he suggested that Watson stand his ground and then ripped Easterby, he was telling us what he thinks.
Q: Watson not happy? Let's kiss his butt to make him happy. Last time I checked he was an employee, not a part owner. Many employees are not happy with certain things in their workplace, but they get over it. Show him the door. — Gene C.
Q: OK, it’s crunch time. My opinion, hiring Bieniemy or possibly Frazier is the only thing that keeps Watson. — Scott M.
A: I’m guessing it’s got to be more than that, Scott.
Q: I think I’ve finally reached my tipping point. That is saying a lot after a year like 2020. The Harden situation was surprisingly easier. I’m a die-hard Rockets and basketball fan. I’ve had season tickets or have been buying tickets since 1991. And yet when it comes to Harden, good riddance. Take it somewhere else. Watson is a whole different deal. While the old-school part of me laughs a little at the Gen Y and Gen X demands and attitudes, that train has left the station. When you give a “kid” $100-200 million it’s hard to expect the maturity or experience of someone in their more developed years. That said, how could McNair let this get so bad? Not sure what to believe in this world of blogger news, but where there is smoke, there is fire. I guess as long as Cal believes we will keep buying tickets and watching on TV then he too can do what he wants. I will say if Watson goes, I will be remorsefully selling my PSLs at first opportunity. Even if our new GM pulled of a Herschel Walker-like trade. I believe in loyalty. It’s important in life. But there is nothing Easterby can be providing that outweighs the damage that seems well documented in and out of the organization. It’s just unbelievable to me and frankly bums me out. I handled the Astros. I’m OK with the Rockets. I’ve accepted the mask. I’ve accepted the election. I just can’t get my head around the situation with Watson. — Keith C.
A: I imagine many of us feel like you do, Keith.
Q: By the way, I’m tired of the sophomoric name-calling in many of your e-mails. You should be able to make your point without stooping to name-calling, right? Thank you. — Mike A.
A: The e-mails have been better this week, Mike. Thank everyone for ditching the name-calling. I’ve deleted several e-mails because I don’t want to take the time to edit out the name-calling.
Q: Congratulations on the Cal McNair interview about Easterby. National media giving you credit for it as well. The news about McNair being so entrenched was nauseating at best but at least it provides certainty. Let's hope the players can convince Caserio to wall him off from them so he isn't a distraction. I sincerely hope fans are allowed in the stadium next year so they can provide direct feedback to McNair and his boss. I can think of no other situation in American business when a subordinate has withstood this much hostility and venom. Maybe in a cult, but not a business. How terribly unfortunate. Thanks for being the messenger. — Ray M.
A: Thanks very much, Ray.
Q: I read your articles and watch your videos. Cal McNair apologized for his actions or communications that created mistrust. Few hours after that Deshaun Watson puts another cryptic tweet about 2 and 10. Why does such a smart player and good person put out such tweets that hurt the reputation of the team and ownership? Is he misguided? Wish tweets could be used to spread positivity, awareness on social issues instead of riling public opinion against team ownership. Why is it hard for players to sort out differences directly as grown-up adults instead of washing dirty linen in public? I want Deshaun to stay in Houston but these cryptic tweets and media leaks (anonymous sources) are beginning to damage his reputation as well. — Jeevan R.
A: It’s a new era, Jeevan. That’s just the way a lot of people operate today. One-on-one communication seems to be a thing of the past.
Q: If Easterby was such a help to the organization here are some suggested comments McNair might have made:

1. You know we could not have pulled off the trading of Hopkins without his help, this was a really successful moment for our franchise, he advised O'Brian perfectly on this trade.
   
2. Why would people question the decision to keep Easterby, after all who would listen to Andre or Watson, they were just players and you can never get enough advice for someone who has been in New England
   
3. Our new GM needed to have friends around to support his decision making and Easterby is that guy
   
4. Why should I listen to a quarterback or a retired wideout when choosing a GM, after all I have Easterly to advise me, let Watson vacation in Cabo
   
5. Andre simply has not gotten to know "Jackie" like I have.
   
6. You will see when our team advised by my close buddy Jack Easterby chooses our head coach. No I do not think a quarterback of a losing team should have any say, why would I think of that? After all he is not Elway or Manning or even Blanda. You will see Easterby's worth when we choose the new coach.
   

Sorry David Barron is retiring, you now have to be the old wise owl. — Don H.
A: We’re all sorry Barron is retiring, Don. He leaves a huge hole in our sports coverage and will be missed by so many of us.
Q: On the coaching search by Texans, this year it seems the new slogan for teams looking for the HC is a leader of men. In a football world of Alphas, not all coaches and players are Alphas. Bill O'Brien wasn't necessarily an Alpha. Mike Vrabel was an Alpha, as evidenced by the many complimentary comments from Texan players during Vrabel's time here. It's been no surprise to me that the Titans have excelled under Vrabel's stewardship. He's supported by a good GM who has had some recently productive drafts. I won't be surprised when the Titans go Super Bowling. How does an NFL owner or GM identify that Alpha quality in a HC candidate? — Roy S.
A: It’s pretty easy to identify, Roy, if you know what you're doing, have a lot of experience in the NFL and have a lot of contacts to investigate candidates’ strengths and weaknesses.
Q: It seems like almost everybody has agreed that Watson will be traded. I don’t think Caserio will do that, but what do you think it takes for Watson and the Texans to get their relationship back on track? And do you think this has hurt the search for a new HC? Med venlig hilsen. — Kristian S.
A: I don’t think it’s hurt the search, Kristian. There are only 32 of these jobs in the world, and they’re coveted by so many. Not to mention the new coach will probably get about $5 mil a year — lots more than an assistant coach. Med venlig hilsen to you, too.
Q: If Watson does not trust Easterby, and Caserio has said that they have a long-term relationship, don't you think it's just better for them to part ways? Get someone who wants to be here and can buy in to what Caserio is building, otherwise there will always be some kind of drama. Watson seems to be a great guy, but he wants to be at a place where he feels like he's respected, clearly he feels that he has not been, right or wrong! I don't care how much money you make, nobody wants to go to work looking over their shoulder every day. Sounds like a clean break is needed. I'd hate to see him go, but hey they traded Olajuwon! — Robert T.
A: Why would Watson have to look over his shoulder every day, Robert? Perhaps they will make a clean break. Perhaps it’ll get real ugly like Harden. Or maybe they can work it out if Watson wants to work it out.
Q: With Cal "running” things, Texans deserve what they get. But the fans don’t deserve this crap. Jack Easterby is now a known problem — nationwide — but Cal can’t see it. Respected SI writers go on for pages about his crap. Cal: unjustified and we own it in the building. It's beyond reproach that the building is an abject disaster. Did Cal say why he is retaining JE? Did he say why, when it's jeopardizing the team, Deshaun, the fans, etc; was he asked to address and respond to the litany of the events outlined in the SI article? Was he asked if 20 percent of that is true, all is probably true, Why is JE being retained? Did he answer why he is being retained when, according to O’Brien, he was intimately involved in all the horrendous decisions since he arrived? If he wasn’t asked these things, then why not?? These are the questions that 90 plus percent of Texans fans deserve answers to. And last, was he asked why, in view of all of the press and backlash, locally and nationwide, he hasn’t had a press conference so that he can field questions from a variety, not just insiders? Cal is damn lucky he’s here in Houston, and not another city where the media and fans demand performance and are exacting in their review. See Philly! Firing a pretty damn good coach who Texans ought to consider, but JE won’t approve, so no chance. Not to mention not even interviewing Saleh and asking for Bieniemy 2 weeks late. The ticket holders should boycott! Once Cal’s cash train comes to a grinding halt, maybe things will change. — Steve C.
A: Steve, I guess you missed McNair answering every question the media had about Easterby on the Zoom call with the media. I guess you missed what’s been reported over and over: It’s Caserio’s search and hire. As soon as he got here for his first day on the job, he notified the league he wanted to interview five coaches, including Bieniemy. And I guess you’ve missed all those times it’s been written, broadcast and tweeted: McNair says Easterby is here because the owner thinks he does a good job. No other explanation is necessary.
Q: Shades of the Houston Oilers. Reminds me of the yesterdays when Bud Adams didn't know what he was doing. McNair standing up for a man that was totally bamboozled and steamrolled by Bill O'Brien is a joke. It just tells me that the owner doesn't have a clue about football management. Mr. McNair seems to be a good man, and a man that knows how to make money. But his personnel skills are lacking. By standing up for Easterby, he has endorsed the failures of the past 5 years under O'Brien. The man that dismantled the Texans and left them non-competitive. But Deshaun knows Easterby is zero help. Why didn't Deshaun say something before or after he signed his huge contract? Why did J.J. Watt wait so long to speak out? Easterby was there to listen to them. I predict the Texans will continue to lose for the next 5 years. New coach? Who wants this job? Texans will have to beg to get a coach. Interviews mostly with retreads Jim Caldwell, Marvin Lewis? Are you kidding me? Losers. Watt will be gone to a potential championship team like Green Bay. The Texans will not beat the Jaguars again. You will see what real coaching does. Watson will remain unhappy and frustrated fans will still buy tickets, based on a sales pitch. Easterby will get it done. Seen it all before. Thank God I don't have season tickets with a seat license. — Kelley J.
A: I disagree about failure for the last five years with OB. Winning four division titles in five years and two playoff games isn’t failure. Let’s be fair. The Texans have interviewed eight candidates, including five who’ve never been a head coach. By the way, some other retreads who’d been fired: Bill Belichick, Pete Carroll, Tony Dungy, Marty Schottenheimer, Dan Reeves, Andy Reid, Jon Gruden and Gary Kubiak, just to name a few.
Q: I'm from Boston and subscribe to Texas Sports Nation to read your stuff. We had a sportscaster named Bob Lobel who would show highlights of former players and say, "why can't we get guys like that." I hope Nick and Easterby (who reminds me of Rasputin and I'm glad he's Houston's problem) ship him (Watson) to New England. Stranger things have happened. More likely the Jets for Darnold and great picks. — Vic L.
A: Vic, what do you have to offer for Watson to go to the Patriots to work with Belichick and Josh McDaniels.
Q: I’m sure I’m not telling you anything you don’t know, but in my view, regardless of how his role evolved, a critical part of Easterby’s position was to maintain a good relationship with players. Most of all, the team leaders such as Deshaun Watson. If he has not done this, he has failed at a significant part of his job. Just like with any other job, I don’t really think it matters what the reasons are. He has obviously failed at it. Personally I try to form my opinions from the information I have available to me. There is a lot of information out there regarding Deshaun Watson, from his childhood, to college, to NFL. He does not appear to be someone to me that is unreasonable or difficult to deal with. If he was, then maybe this breakdown with Easterby would be excusable. I think where there is smoke, there is fire. And there is just too much smoke around players having problems with Easterby. So, in my opinion, McNair keeping him around may not be the easy way out, but it also may not be the right decision. I just don’t think it should have been that hard for Easterby to maintain those relationships. Sometimes in life if situations degrade then it just needs to be changed, regardless of the perspectives of those involved. — David G.
A: David, Easterby’s job has nothing to do with his relationship with players. That was at New England. He’s the executive vice president of football operations who works closely with the GM who has final say on all football decisions.
Q: McNair’s every word, action and decision show he is simply not intelligent enough to be an NFL owner. The smartest thing Cal McNair could do is find someone smart enough to operate the Texans football franchise and step out of the way. Maybe that person is Nick Caserio? Maybe that is the new real question? — Deanne N.
A: The idea, Deanne, is for Caserio to hire the coach to be the face of the franchise, and McNair and Easterby slip into the background.
Q: Texans fans badly need to understand the what and why the Texans have completely fallen apart since the playoff game last year against Kansas City. While Bill O’Brien had not won a Super Bowl, he had considerable success and seemed on the brink of winning the big one. The crazy trades, the demise of any defense, all this attention of Jack Easterby, etc. What does he do that is good or bad? It appears that with the passing of Bob McNair, things have deteriorated greatly. The Chronicle needs some in-depth reporting on the matter to the benefit of those paying the tab. No diatribe from the two columnists, please. — Charles M.
A: Charles, if I had a dollar for every time I’ve written about the demise of the Texans dating back to the second quarter of the Kansas City playoff game I could buy out Cal McNair.
Q: I take it you watched the Bills vs Baltimore playoff game. The Bills beat Lamar Jackson badly. That drops the stock of Balt's OC. They couldn't do that against Watson. That game only made Watson more priceless. There's not another QB in the NFL capable of the DW4 heroic plays. But what does Houston gain by declaring him untradeable? If the D can't improve substantially during his contract, he's going to leave Houston when it expires. Doesn't it make more sense to ask for a king’s ransom now? Hypothetically speaking, if Houston were to trade him, where does Chicago rank as a trade partner? All things considered, can Houston rebound defensively and compete for the AFC crown next year? — Juan B.
A: Watson has a no-trade clause. I doubt seriously he’d agree to be traded to the Bears. I don’t think the Texans can compete for the AFC crown next season, Juan. If they trade Watson, they’ll compete for the first pick in the draft.
Q: What would happen if J.J. Watt and Deshaun Watson both say they don’t want to play for the Texans as long as Easterby is in the building? What would happen if the Texans hire a coach that Deshaun Watson isn’t happy with? Easterby knows that he is toxic amongst the best players on the team and Cal knows that. What if Watson says I’m not coming unless Easterby is gone or if J.J. Watt says I’m not coming back to camp unless Easterby is gone? I feel bad for Caserio. — Glen K.
A: I feel bad for Caserio, too, Glen. He’s waited 20 years for a chance to become a GM and he starts with this mess.
Q: Hard to imagine the hold Easterby has on McNair. His background purportedly was as a character coach when he was brought in. Instead he has apparently done only one thing right — ingratiating himself with McNair and Caserio. It’s hard to imagine we may lose an unbelievable talent like Watson because of a character like Easterby. His skill set was supposed to be building team chemistry. He has done a tremendous job of doing the exact opposite. It sounds like players see him for what he is, a poser. Amazing! Casserio could salvage everything by calling Bieniemy and offering him the job immediately. Watching KC’s offense and the higher level creativity is just too good to pass on. Or we can take the safe route, dawdle and get stuck with whomever is left and have that as an excuse. Fortunately, it will probably be a defensive coach and we will need a great D without Deshaun here. — Mike D.
Q: I am a daily reader. I just got through reading the Sports Illustrated article online about Easterby. I'm trying to figure out other than the fact that he prays, what is the specific issue. Maybe everybody's avoiding coming right out and saying it due to a legal liability, but I have been unable to find anything other than vague references to the fact that Easterby's being here has somehow caused the Texans to play terribly. I also have not seen anything in the media that says a billionaire has to run his business according to public opinion which may not even represent the majority. I'm not a defender of either person, it just seems that there's a lot of smoke and not the whole lot of specific fire. No one wants to lose so maybe that's the biggest thing. Why Deshaun Watson at 25 thinks he should be able to dictate to the people who pay him a hundred and fifty million dollars is still a puzzle to me. According to SI online when asked why Caserio wasn't on their list, Korn Ferry said they knew that he was already on the Texans list so they did not add his name. I have not seen this detail in any local media, which seems to make the issue of Caserio not being on Korn Ferry list something that we should think about. — Charles W.
A: Charles, I don’t give a damn about Korn Ferry. Jed Hughes recommended they hire Brian Schottenheimer as their head coach, and he was fired by Seattle. A search firm is paid to compile information and make recommendations. This was the third time the Texans tried to interview Caserio dating back to 2017 when they had to replace Rick Smith. Caserio is one of the most respected personnel men in the NFL. That’s not debatable. Who gives a hoot if he was on the Korn Ferry list?
Q: I have no insight into the operation of a football organization. My Ph.D. is in management and have a very good understanding of organizations outside of football. I don't understand the upset QB and I am guessing many of his supporters. Let me frame my question. The CEO runs the company. His/her direct reports are probably VP's, then there are managers and report to them are various staff. I was once a college president. If a hot shot staff member had demanded that he/she be part of the selection of a VP or their direct boss I would tell them they have no business selecting senior members of my staff and I would guess that other CEO's would tell the staff member the same thing or would no longer have a job. Here is my question. Why does Watson think he should be in or hiring Caserio or the next head coach? — Rudy S.
A: That’s the way it is in just about every business, Rudy, but not the business of sports.
Q: I have not written to a newspaper writer in my 71 years on this earth, but I am highly disappointed in what is going on with the Texans. I have been a season ticket holder since 2003 and have stood by the team each year be it good or bad. Deshaun Watson has lost my respect as a player and a person. He has lowered himself to acting like a spoiled NBA player. He is paid to play football not manage the team. People are down on Jack Easterby but no reasons have been put forth for their dissatisfaction. So what is the story? The McNair family owns the franchise and funds it so that makes them the boss. I would like to see Deshaun play for the Texans but what he is doing right now is destructive and stirring up trouble for the team, fans and ticket holders. This kind of behavior is going to drive away ticket holders. A sad season ticket holder. — Jo Ann C.
A: Many feel as you do, Jo Ann. Unfortunately, times are different. Agents and players have a lot more power than they used to.
Q: It’s sad that a premier QB is now executive management. He should do his job and improve like not throw 1 interception ever again. So now we’ve established no one’s perfect, lets address coaching. Texans hired great GM, let him do his job. — Stephen G.
A: I agree, Stephen, to let Caserio do what he was hired to do.
Q: I'm heartened by last week's Mailbag participants whose concerns I shared about religion and hiring within the Texans organization. And thank you for your enlightening information in that regard. Should Deshaun Watson (or anyone) have been angered that Bieniemy wasn't interviewed before Caserio was hired to search for a coach? That confusion seems like an easy thing to smooth over. If not and Watson leaves, the organization would no longer be qualified to represent the great city of Houston. Especially after the excellent season Watson had. I'm not sure which he needed less, the support of a running game or Bill O'Brien calling plays. Am I wrong in thinking if Jamey Rootes resigns, as he was rumored to want to after all the reported GM hiring chaos, it means all that reported chaos is true? In which case, aside from Watson leaving, Rootes departing would also be a strong indictment of Cal McNair's management. If the Texans hire a defensive coordinator as head coach, does that mean Tim Kelly has a chance to stay on? — Tim K.
A: I should point out, Tim, that you’re not the Tim Kelly. I’ve said all along I thought it was a waste of time to interview a candidate before the GM was hired. Caserio is running the search, and McNair will sign off on his recommendation. I think Kelly has a chance to stay no matter who they hire. Watson wants him, and he helped Watson have his best season.
Q: What value does Jack Easterby bring to the Texans organization? How much value does this man hold if keeping him around could cost the team the one thing an NFL team needs to succeed - a transcendent quarterback. With the SI articles, it's clear there's something rotten in NRG. You keep saying Watson won't be traded, but every day that goes by is a day that the possibility increases. Firing Easterby would be the beginning of mending fences. I don't think McNair and Caserio are willing to do it. Houston seems to have got lucky to be able to interview Eric Bieniemy due to the bad press about the lack of Black coaches being hired this offseason. Although there's a limited number of these jobs, it seems to be less desirable with Easterby in the building. Can you just explain, what does that man do? If it's to provide comfort, it ain't working. It would be better the Texans bring in rescue puppies and kittens in to pet once a week. — Louis E.
A: His job isn’t to provide comfort, Louis. He’s the executive vice president of football operations. He does things on the football side to help the GM, who has final say. Easterby’s involved in everything on the football side and some things on the business side.
Q: Instead of being a reporter, how about being the GM of the Texans for a day. Granted you aren’t able to interview the coaching prospects or D4, but if you had the chance to pull the strings what would you do for coach, QB and other positions you feel need to be addressed. — Mike P.
A: I’d bring in the two or three finalists for in-person interviews. Then, I’d make my recommendation to McNair. After he signs off on it, the coach would be hired. The coach and I would sit down and figure out a way to get Watson to communicate with us. We’d offer to fly to where he is for some one-on-one communication. I might even bring my OC, Tim Kelly, along since Watson was adamant he wanted to keep Kelly as the play-caller.
Q: You have certainly added logs on them. Marketing fire to help Caserio maintain the less than stellar historical glow of the burdened mid market Texans! Honestly, in my 35 years living my life in Texas, which I continue to celebrate; for the life of my I still wonder how we get mid market and Houston disproved as in the same sentence! Stay strong John! — Bob B.
Q: The history of the Texans success is directly related to their players injuries each season. Recognition of this should be the team’s primary goal for its future. Miami coach Don Shula installed a program to prevent player injuries, and that likely played significantly in their success. If ever a team needed such a program, it's the Houston Texans. — Don S.

Here's a piece I wrote about the history/evolution of basketball analytics, and I'd love any input anyone can offer. Am I over- or under-emphasizing anything, missing anything, including anything that wasn't that meaningful, etc? Thanks for any thoughts or comments.
PREHISTORIC DAYS (pre-2003): Like the history of anything, the exact origins of basketball analytics are a) tough to pinpoint, and b) certainly older than you think. I assumed all sports analytics were just an off-shoot of Bill James’ baseball work that started gaining traction in the early-80’s (LINK), but that’s not the case .... you gotta go way back to the 50's. UNC coach Frank McGuire published “Defensive Basketball” in 1959, and in this book he talked about the importance of evaluating team offenses & defenses based on per possession stats, not just per game (starting on page 11, LINK). This viewpoint, which seems obvious to us today, was so novel that McGuire’s disciple & successor Dean Smith published similar thoughts on the importance of looking at things on a per possession basis (e.g. per 100 possessions) in “Basketball, Multiple Offense and Defense” in 1981 (LINK), which was also barely noticed. Another note-worthy individual who helped advance how we view players & teams beyond the box score was famed Sixers stat keeper Harvey Pollack who worked with the team from the franchise’s beginnings in 1946 until his death in 2015. Pollack kept track of blocks, steals, and offensive/defensive rebounds long before they were official stats since he saw the value in them, and he started putting out annual “Statistical Yearbooks” in the 60’s which included details such as the distance of every shot he kept score for (he was WAY ahead of his time). Possibly most important in this discussion, he started tracking plus/minus player data for the 76ers as early as 1974, and publishing league-wide plus/minus player data in 1994 (LINK). Two stat-nerds who were doing some early “modern” analytics work and discussing it on their websites in the Internet’s early days of the 90’s were Dean Oliver and John Hollinger ("Journal of Basketball Studies" and Alleyoop.com, respectively), both of whom have bigger roles in the next section, but it must be noted that Bob Belloti's "Points Created" metric from 1988 (LINK) may have (probably?) influenced these two, and was even noticed by Bucks coach Del Harris.
EARLY DAYS (2003-2008): This is when modern awareness of analytics began for most of the curious stat-nerds, many of whom probably got interested based on the burgeoning field of sabermetrics in baseball, but it was getting eye rolls from “normal” hoops fans. In 2003, Roland Beech started 82games.com (LINK) which did a lot of cool things with newly available play-by-play data, putting a big emphasis on displaying & evaluating plus/minus and lineup stats. It turns out plus/minus had already been taken to the next level, basically behind the scenes, by Jeff Sagarin & Wayne Winston with their WinVal metric in the early-00's (it was being used by the Mavs since 2000), which provided the framework for future work on "adjusted" plus/minus stats (LINK). Daniel Rosenbaum made this concept public with his Adjusted Plus/Minus (LINK) in 2004, which examined how to isolate one player's influence on a team's plus/minus data, which is a core driving question even today (which is why we have so many advanced stats that end with "PM"); his APM was notably "the first time anyone conceived of tying box-score stats to adjusted plus-minus for validity" (KP). In 2004, Dean Oliver published “Basketball on Paper” (LINK - one year after Michael Lewis’ “Moneyball”), which was the first important modern basketball analytics book (introduced the Four Factors); later that year, Oliver became the first full-time statistical analyst in the NBA. In 2005, Justin Kubatko who had founded Basketball-Reference shared his metric Win Shares (LINK), still one of the most cited/used advanced stats. At the same time, John Hollinger was hired by ESPN, bringing his PER stat to a larger audience (Player Efficiency Rating); although PER is rather lineabasic compared to most other analytics, its inclusion on ESPN.com started opening “normal” fans’ eyes to this type of beyond-the-box-score evaluation. In 2006, Daryl Morey started the Sloan Conference (MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference - LINK) and was named the Rockets’ Assistant GM within a few months, and then became the GM in 2007. Things were moving forward but basically on isolated islands, so in 2007 Oliver, Kubatko, Rosenbaum, and Kevin Pelton (who worked with the Sonics) published the research paper “A Starting Point for Analyzing Basketball Statistics” (LINK) to help standardize and speed up this field of research. Speaking of which, a lot of the people doing early work on analytics congregated on a Yahoo! group that later became the ABPBmetrics message board (LINK), which in those early days was used to share research and standardize terminology (special shout-out to Kevin Pelton for this bit of insight).
THE TIPPING POINT (2009-2013): This is when a) “normal” fans became more aware and accepting of analytics, b) the early-adopting stat-nerds who had already been following things collaborated & interacted far more so, particularly as the Sloan Conference's popularity took off, and c) most franchises tried to find ways to track and/or incorporate analytics into their operations. In 2009, Michael Lewis’ “No-Stats All-Star” article in the NY Times (LINK) about Shane Battier drew a lot of attention to the need for better evaluative tools for players. In 2010, ESPN partnered with the Sloan Conference, which greatly enhanced awareness/acceptance of the annual event, and the conference got popular enough it had to move to a much larger venue (LINK); within 3 years, the conference went from being attended by only a handful of NBA teams, to the Lakers notably being the only team absent from the 2013 conference (LINK). Roland Beech of 82games.com was now the NBA’s first “stats coach”, serving with the Mavericks, providing in-game line-up advice to Coach Rick Carlisle on the way to the 2011 title; Dallas owner Mark Cuban has spoken highly of Beech's contribution to that championship (LINK). That same year, the “Moneyball” movie starring Brad Pitt further increased the general public awareness of the importance of analytics in sports. In 2012, over half of NBA teams now had an analytics “department.” Another major turning-point “happening” in this short window was the implementation of SportVU tracking cameras in NBA arenas. They were installed into their first 4 arenas in 2010, and by 2013 every arena had them, which collected a mountain of data on the location and speed of all 10 players and the ball several times per second, radically enhancing what teams and fans knew about players’ abilities in very specific situations (LINK), which has completely changed scouting and strategizing to this day.
MODERN ACCEPTANCE & IMPLEMENTATION (2014 to now): Through modern acceptance and implementation of what the data was saying by NBA executives and coaches, 3-pointers began their historic upward turn during the 2012-13 season (LINK); from that season through 2019-20, teams have increased their 3-point attempts from 18.4 per game to 34.1. This trend was finally "seen" and examined a couple years after its inflection point in the '13 season (LINK). The first half of 2015 had a quick succession of events that showed how “dated” and “out-of-it” non-believers in analytics looked: in January, Charles Barkley ranted about the red-hot Warriors having no chance of winning a title because they were a jump-shooting team (LINK), then in February he ranted about the stupidity of analytics and Daryl Morey’s work as Houston’s GM (LINK), and then in June the Warriors obliterated the league to win their first title (LINK). By the 2016 season, all 30 teams employed at least one stats analyst, and by 2020, most find meaningful ways to implement their proprietary analytics (3’s, spacing, how to defend pick-n-rolls, etc.), leading to a consistent increase in league-wide scoring, Pace, and eFG% for the past 6 years; the Moreyball "threes and frees" tenant has become quite popular. In 2016, Ben Taylor published “Thinking Basketball”, a book that broke a lot of ground within basketball analytics, including examining the scalability/portability of certain skills & players (LINK). Today his outpouring of videos, podcasts, and articles serve as arguably the most thoughtful statistical analysis available to the public. Many recent-ish discussions around advancements in player evaluations in analytics are based on "total impact" by fine-tuning how to isolate an individual’s impact on plus/minus data; some stats that have been developed & widely used around this time include VORP, WARP, RAPM/xRAPM, PIPM, BPM (created by Daniel Myers - it's used on Basketball-Reference making it the most popular "regression model" - LINK), and RPM (created by Jeremias Engelmann and Steve Ilardi for ESPN, which helped with the wide-spread acceptance of plus/minus data - LINK). Not only that, the "pop stats" website 538, best known for their political election predictions, got into NBA player predictions in 2015 with their CARMELO algorithm, updated in 2019 to the RAPTOR metric (LINK), plus their use of Elo ratings (LINK) and creative charts & calculations have added a lot to the modern analytical discussion. In 2019, Kirk Goldsberry published "Sprawlball", a visually-captivating book that further improved the accessibility of shooting analytics to thousands of “normal” basketball fans (LINK); this was a refined follow-up to a presentation he made at the Sloan Conference in 2012 which helped revolutionize how teams, players, and fans meaningfully comprehended the flood of tracking data, specifically about shooting (LINK).

Near the start of OWL Season 3, I wrote a summary for an AMA that Dpei (Gladiators Head Coach) did on Twitch. People were interested in another summary for the AMA he did today, so I made another one.
Like last time, I encourage you to watch the vod before repeating anything from this thread, so you and I are less likely to spread misinformation. https://www.twitch.tv/videos/809037423
This write-up is broken into sections by me, and except where indicated with ‘quotation marks’, uses my own wording. Almost everything here comes from a direct question asked by the chat.
Gladiators’ 2021 roster

• The Gladiators are not totally done with the off-season, but Dpei refused to say much about their next moves, saying it’s the job of the marketing team to announce them. However, he did say that the team has a very strong ‘base’ and knows what is needed to fill the holes.
• The Gladiators will keep their 2021 roster ‘tight’ and focus on developing their own players as opposed to signing back-ups and specialists. Dpei said that the roster will be smaller than last year’s (which had ten players). Dpei stressed the point about having a ‘tight roster’ every time he was asked about what moves the Gladiators will be making next.
• The Gladiators asked Moth if he was interested in the team, and he said yes. The process was quite simple afterward. Dpei said that the team could have looked toward younger talent, but it was clear that Moth was the right player for them.
• Dpei says that the new team has the highest ‘individual skill’ of any Gladiators roster. He needs to see how the team performs as a collective before saying too much, though.
• Dpei can’t answer questions about the precise strengths and weaknesses of the new roster because it depends on the meta, hero pool, etc. He has ‘ideas’ about the team’s best meta, but they are not concrete. He’ll gear his team toward its strengths once those become apparent.
• The Gladiators’ roster decisions are mostly made by Dpei. He says that he specifically asked for roster control for the upcoming reason. He also said that the team is ‘very collaborative’ overall and is working very well with their budget this year.
• Dpei says that he could have all the talent in the world and still nothing would happen if everybody didn’t work hard. Dpei says the Gladiators done a good job recruiting ‘pieces’, but they currently only have ‘planned success’ and need to work for real success.
• Dpei says that Kevster’s individual skill and play hours match up with elite talents like Decay. He understands the Reddit hype behind Kevster and hopes he will live up to it.
• Kevster will be moving to LA with the team. Chat persistently asked if Kevster is a real person, and Dpei said he is ‘the most real person I’ve never met’.
• The Gladiators became interested in Muze because Face (Assistant Coach) worked with him previously and always kept an eye on him. Dpei said Muze is a great player who grinds a lot, is very flexible, and is very motivated. He says he will go outside of the game and solve team problems, which is a very good quality. He says Muze is like OGE in that regard, and in that his English is excellent. Later in the stream, Dpei said he has ‘high faith’ in both Muze and Face.
• Dpei says he has a good gauge on OGE’s skill level, and would rate him above Muze at the moment. However, he also trusts that Muze will be better in the long term. He says Muze currently has an insane ‘Reddit reputation’ and might be a little bit overhyped. He says Muze has a better Orisa and OGE has a better Winston.
• Dpei was asked if the Gladiators would be a Western team. He says that this year will have a ‘mix’ and that he focused on getting top players from both the Korean and Western markets.
• Dpei isn’t sure when the team will be together scrimming, but hopes they’ll come together two months before the season begins.
• The decision between existing OWL talents and free agent comes down to budget. Dpei says that people think the Gladiators spent a lot on their current roster, but in reality they didn’t buy out any OWL players and went a lot cheaper than people think. He explained that both Shu and Moth chose the Gladiators out of free agency.

Past years’ performance and players

• Dpei says Birdring was always good last year, and always thought he was good. He says that he wasn’t at his best during the GOATs meta, but was not surprised at all by his performance this year. Dpei says he is the world’s biggest Birding fan.
• Dpei says it’s very hard to motivate players who have limited play-time. He knows that players simply want match time and says that he ‘feels so bad’ when he has to tell his bench that they can’t play. He says this informed part of his decision to make a tight-knit roster for next year. He says that he liked all his bench players from last year and said Paintbrush, Jaru, Bischu and Cloudy were among his favourite players to work with in any case, because they asked questions and always stayed hungry.
• Dpei was asked about Fissure from Season 1. He says the situation was ‘really complex’ and summed it up by saying that Fissure and the team ‘didn’t see eye to eye on how [they] should proceed going into playoffs preparation’, and that meant Fissure didn’t play. Dpei says that they wanted to give Fissure an ‘avenue to play’ but he ‘wasn’t willing to concede’. He still mentioned Fissure as one of his favourite Season 1 players to coach, later in the stream.
• Dpei says it’s good for Surefour taking a break from Overwatch and hopes he’ll be happier without the pressures of OWL and streaming.
• Dpei says he was annoyed that the Fusion kept choosing the Gladiators as an opponent in tournaments when there were weaker teams to select (in his opinion).
• Dpei was asked about the team’s indecision as to who would play Sigma in the Season 2 playoffs. He said that Void’s Sigma was not as good as it is now, and there was disagreement between the coaches on who should play the character. Dpei said that Void was ultimately too high-quality of a player to leave out of the lineup, as much as the other coaches believed Hydration was the better Sigma at the time. He says the team ‘fucked up’ their playoffs that year and probably could have been Grand Finalists if ‘certain things didn’t happen’ – though he acknowledges it wouldn’t have mattered because the ‘Shock would have washed [them]’. He thinks that his team was better than Vancouver and NYXL at the time, and the Gladiators’ elimination was the result of the team ‘imploding at the worst possible time because of stress’.
• Dpei says that during Season 3 playoffs, the Gladiators thought the Hog composition was weaker because they saw it first scrimming Houston and believed Houston picked it up from a another low-rated team. But he says Houston was right in the end about the Hog comp being the best, and says it was funny how all the top teams thought they could beat the Hog comp with the Winston rush comp.
• Dpei says that playoffs pressure is very difficult to navigate, and there hasn’t yet been a Gladiators season where the team hasn’t suffered in playoffs. He says everybody was burnt out last season, especially due to COVID (but added that it was still smoother than Season 1 and 2).
• Dpei says BigGoose’s motivation waned throughout the year, playing less and less Overwatch, culminating in his retirement.
• Dpei thinks that the outlook for veterans like Soon depends partly on their salary expectations and where they’re willing to go. He guesses teams like Vancouver, Boston and Valiant would sign him, but doesn’t know if Soon would want to play on those teams.
• Dpei implied that the Paintbrush trade was necessary so the team could fund signing Kevster. He says it was mutually beneficial in the end, as Paintbrush started on Dallas. Dpei says he likes Paintbrush and it was hard to trade him away.
• Dpei still thinks highly of OGE and thinks he is a great player. He said it’s unfortunate that things didn’t work out the way he thought they could but accepted their ‘difference in opinion’. Precisely, his contract situation was that the Gladiators agreed not to exercise his +1 and effectively allow him to become a free agent. Dpei implied heavily that OGE has found another team that OGE thinks is a good fit.
• Dpei says that Dallas are probably the winner of the off-season, simply because they will improve so much between 2020 and 2021. But he still thinks the Gladiators did very well, and says Dallas almost must be a successful team next year given how much they’ve invested into OWL with mixed results.

About rival teams and players

• Dpei says that the Gladiators have a good roster, but wouldn’t describe it as the outright most talented roster in NA. He said that there are a lot of super teams coming to NA (and mentioned Dallas and Washington as examples), which is ‘very scary’. He thinks that the disparity between Korean teams and other teams is going to increase next season. He hopes that the Gladiators won’t be one of those ‘other teams’.
• Dpei says there are nine or ten teams with tons of talent and great potential to place highly. He predicts there will be a ‘big margin’ between those teams and the others. (He listed a few of them, but I forgot to write them down. They’re pretty much exactly what you expect, though.)
• When asked which teams he is most scared of, Dpei says that Dallas is ‘very scary’. He joked that they’re going to be like playing against a generational all-star team in an NBA video game. He says they’ve basically got all the best players from Element Mystic’s past; and stacked on top of the fact EM is one of the most successful teams in a scene he rates highly, Dpei thinks Dallas will be very good next season.
• Dpei was asked who he considers a dark horse, and he said ‘us’. He said anybody that doesn’t have a Korean roster is a dark horse. He says teams like Seoul, Shanghai, Shock, Fusion, etc. have established success and are only improving their rosters, so they should have higher expectations than other teams by default.
• Dpei hopes that Jjanu will find another team. He thinks Jjanu has a great D.Va and Hog, but also knows that the league is very competitive for spots this year.
• Dpei was asked about Toronto’s chances next year. He says he doesn’t know much about that, and it’s up to KDG to decide. He said a similar thing about Washington, but also noted they have tons of options because they’re a Korean team.
• Dpei says Crusty is the coach he holds in highest regard and joked that he considers Crusty to be his ‘god’. He later added that he thinks Crusty is the best OWL coach.
• Dpei was asked who the top three most impactful players in the league are. He named Profit, Striker and Viol2t. He later talked about how Viol2t is simply a tier above the other flex supports.
• Dpei says FDGod might be the best Lucio in the League. He says FDGod might be raw in terms of team play and perhaps his other heroes aren’t as strong, but knows that he’ll be a ‘great Moth replacement’ for Shock and ‘won’t skip a beat’.
• Dpei thinks Philadelphia will remain a top team. He says they’ve still got Alarm, FunnyAstro and ‘great DPS’. He suggested things will depend a bit on their new off-tank (which the fanbase doesn’t know about yet).
• When asked what he thinks of NYXL’s roster decisions, Dpei said that the Korean talent market is very ‘saturated’ and in positions like DPS, there may be a preference for ‘budding mechanical players’ as opposed to veterans. Later in the stream, he said that the extent of NYXL’s roster changes and also their ‘projected signings’ indicate that budget was a factor. Later, he said that he doesn’t expect NYXL to be ‘championship quality’ and repeated that the upper end of OWL will be extremely competitive next year.
• Dpei says that Justice will probably be the most improved team next year, considering where they started in 2020 and where they will begin in 2021. He said similarly of Dallas.
• Dpei says that signing multiple players in the same position is a ‘double-edged sword’ and involves a trade-off between specialisation and the ‘holistic’ experience that each player gets. He says teams would have to assess thing like how bad their Sigma/D.Va player is at Zarya, etc.
• Dpei was asked about Decay. He says that Decay simply wanted to join a Korean team, and sympathised with the fact he was just an 18-year-old kid who wanted to play with his friends without the stress of learning English. Dpei doesn’t think Decay had a problem with the team itself.
• Dpei was asked repeatedly about Super. He says that we have to ‘wait and see’. He doesn’t know if Super or Viol2t will re-sign.
• Dpei was asked about the prospect of Bischu as a coach. He said it won’t happen this year because the Gladiators have their coaching staff established already, but he believes Bischu could be a good coach if he put time into it. He said relationship-building is his strength.
• Dpei says that Hydration is ‘really proficient’ at his best heroes, but that DPS is so competitive nowadays that you need to be exceptional, not just good.
• Dpei was asked about Taiyo. He says Taiyo isn’t the greatest player mechanically, but he knows that he is a calling player, and both he and Crusty love DPS players with strong callouts. He said it might be better if Taiyo was a flex DPS player, but he could also improve mechanically. Dpei says he encourages Birdring and Kevster to call out more often, but understands that he has to ‘meet in the middle’ with different personalities.
• Dpei holds Rush, Sp9rk1e and Hanbin in high regard. He says Rush transferred really well into OWL and think it’s good how he ‘surrounds himself with good players’, because he thinks even the best coach ‘won’t do shit’ unless they have good players.
• Dpei was asked who he think is underrated. He said he doesn’t really know, but mentioned Hanbin.
• Dpei finds preparing for Chengdu a bit annoying but says they’re ultimately not a very successful team record-wise.
• The Gladiators weren’t acutely aware of Ans’s skill before the Shock signed him, but they already had Birdring at the time and Dpei rates Birdring highly. He thinks Ans is now the league’s best hitscan player.
• Some OWL teams certainly spend more than others, and Dpei joked that it sometimes feels like they have ‘fuck you’ money. Dpei says there was a rumour that Dallas went over the budget in Season 2 and says it’s clear they were big spenders this year too. He says the Fusion, Shock and some Chinese teams (e.g. Spark) ‘have the bag’ as well, so to speak.
• Dpei thinks Jjonak is a great player and should start, but doesn’t know enough about what NYXL is going with their roster in general. He fears that Jjonak will trend downward if he plays the game less than he did in the past.
• Dpei thinks Mag and Decay are the biggest pickups for the Justice. The others are good, but he isn’t as high on them as championship-standard players.

Misc.

• Dpei says his role doesn’t differ too much from last year’s – the team just has better defined roles. He says that there’ll be less things ‘following’ him during the season.
• Dpei knows nothing about Overwatch 2 that we don’t, and nothing about how it will interact with OWL.
• Dpei thinks that Chinese talent is ‘really cool’. He says that as the scene continues to improve in the next couple of years, it will probably be the next best place to look for talent after Korea.
• Chinese players are difficult to sign for international teams because they require a visa commitment of at least three years, meaning the talent would have to be much, much better than the next best available to be worthwhile. Dpei also said that having a trilingual team would be complicated. He said he’d be open to explore it later, but that for the time being, the circumstances aren’t permitting for an NA team.
• Dpei was asked about the difference between a HC and GM. He said that his role in the team is handling the competitive side of the team, including the roster. He says he collaborates with Brenda (General Manager) on the budget, but everything else is handled by other people. He says that the team this year will have more people in place to handle some of his old responsibilities. (Dpei was also GM last year.) Dpei said this was an expected progression as last year was his org’s first year managing an OWL team, which was understandably tough.
• Dpei says that it would be hard to make a LA-based bubble like the NBA did for playoffs, since the NBA is a lot more professional.
• Dpei says that the most impactful roles in OWL matches are meta-dependent overall, but mentioned DPS, flex support and flex tank.
• Dpei was asked what his biggest learning from the last season was. He said that you can have a roster that works on paper, but that you also need to ‘work around personalities’. He also said that the League is ‘insanely competitive’.
• Dpei says that if London were to sign the entirety of British Hurricane, they wouldn’t do amazingly but would likely outperform any random Western team with players strung together. He said their long-term synergy would be important.
• The Gladiators will be living in apartments next year, in a ‘ritzy’ part of Los Angeles. The main office will be five minutes away from the apartments.
• Dpei says that he follows NA Contenders ‘sparsely’, and believes the talent there is ‘pretty drained’. He tuned in yesterday and said he saw lots of ‘strategic mistakes’, both in terms of team composition and map playstyle. He gave American Tornado v. Drifters as an example of this.
• Dpei said that it’s tough to gauge skill in coaches. He compared his own recruitment process to an ‘intelligence test’ as it’s most concerned with how well the coaches articulate their ideas, and not necessarily on quizzing them about the game.
• Dpei thinks that the state of Contenders is ‘fine’. He says that Contenders builds up from how interested people are in playing amateur Overwatch and how well OWL is doing. He says there is a good amount of money in it, so money is not the problem.
• Dpei says that to get a job in Overwatch, he quit his job with $10,000 in the bank and eventually succeeded with not much left. He said coming into coaching was a ‘long story’ for him and he effectively lived in poverty for some time.
• Dpei says that Overwatch struggles to make a connection between the casual and competitive-watching playerbases, especially in comparison to LoL. He says Blizzard is slowly improving how the two are integrated but understands the opinion that it’s ‘too late’.
• Dpei doesn’t think Overwatch 2 will bring back former OWL pros.
• The reason there isn’t a players’ union is that the players are ‘lazy and don’t really care’. He says the same thing happened in LoL. Dpei says that the OWL does give players a good amount of support anyway.
• Dpei doesn’t think that double shield will remain meta after the latest Brig nerf, but also noted that he isn’t scrimming or paying close attention to the meta currently. He says that 25 HP is a big deal and that the Ball-based dive compositions you see in Contenders will likely remain relevant.
• Dpei is a GM player, but he joked about how he doesn’t deserve his placements because he doesn’t actually play ranked much.
• Dpei was asked who he wants to beat the most and he said the Valiant, but then said the ‘real answer’ is the Shock.
• Dpei said that the ladder is a ‘good’ place to look for talent, but Contenders is the best place. He says ladder is the only place you can prove that you’re better than somebody else apart from Contenders. It proves individual skill and allows players to practice, which is very important.
• There aren’t any particular coaches Dpei doesn’t like playing against. He says he’s well-informed as to what they like.
• Roster moves get leaked because people are interested, and people talk. Dpei says leaks don’t cause much harm overall and ‘it is what it is’. He later added that if there are GMs basing their decisions on leaks, those GMs are probably bad.
• Dpei says his most impactful coaching decisions have come in map 5 situations, such as on Ilios and Oasis in the respective matches against the Valiant last season. He says he remembers playing Mei + Reaper on Nepal Village against London in Season 1 as a ‘gutsy’ coaching decision that came from a good read on his opponent.
• Dpei says that Korean Contenders teams would do decently in OWL, and says Runaway proved as much (though largely though the GOATs meta).
• Dpei says it’s hard to teach mechanics and individual skill. He says teams should make sure their players are mechanically skilled before they are signed, as coaches can only do small things to help with that. He says he couldn’t simply turn a Masters player into an OWL player, or whatnot.
• Dpei says game days are long and exhausting. He wakes up early to watch the Asia games to see if there’s anything to learn or if the team read the meta correctly. He hates the regions being split. He’s not sure what will be happening to that next season. He’s also not sure about hero pools.
• Dpei was asked what he thinks of Redditors. He mused about Reddit reflects the social media generation and the circumstances of esports in general. He says that in the public eye, coaching suffers from recency bias and it’s like that in traditional sports too. He says he will always accept accountability for a bad season but admits people’s misconceptions and skewed timelines do play on the mind sometimes. He accepts that it’s human nature to be demanding.
• Dpei says the language of a team doesn’t really matter as long as it’s the same language. The Gladiators speak English because they’re based in LA and it’s a universal language.

David himself might see this if the last one is anything to go by. Please let me know if there's anything you'd like changed about this, seeing as there'll be a lot of people who read this without watching the vod!

A comprehensive list of books that might be of interest to people whom want to, or do practice SE.
They can also work as book recommendations for people whom you have spoken to, that want to read something that might improve their thinking or as gifts.
I have not read most of these, thus I can not personally vouch for them or recommend one over the other.
But if you do read any of them, or have any opinion it would be nice if you could create a post.
I'm not affiliated with Goodreads, but linked to them since they have links to several sources including libraries if you want to get any one of these, and often some quality reviews.
How to Have Impossible Conversations: A Very Practical Guide
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/43885240-how-to-have-impossible-conversations by Peter Boghossian (Goodreads Author), James A. Lindsay (Goodreads Author)
3.99 · Rating details · 928 ratings
"This is a self-help book on how to argue effectively, conciliate, and gently persuade. The authors admit to getting it wrong in their own past conversations. One by one, I recognize the same mistakes in me. The world would be a better place if everyone read this book." -- Richard Dawkins, author of Science in the Soul and Outgrowing God
In our current political climate, it seems impossible to have a reasonable conversation with anyone who has a different opinion. Whether you're online, in a classroom, an office, a town hall -- or just hoping to get through a family dinner with a stubborn relative -- dialogue shuts down when perspectives clash. Heated debates often lead to insults and shaming, blocking any possibility of productive discourse. Everyone seems to be on a hair trigger.
In How to Have Impossible Conversations, Peter Boghossian and James Lindsay guide you through the straightforward, practical, conversational techniques necessary for every successful conversation -- whether the issue is climate change, religious faith, gender identity, race, poverty, immigration, or gun control. Boghossian and Lindsay teach the subtle art of instilling doubts and opening minds. They cover everything from learning the fundamentals for good conversations to achieving expert-level techniques to deal with hardliners and extremists. This book is the manual everyone needs to foster a climate of civility, connection, and empathy.
Difficult Conversations: How to Discuss What Matters Most
by Douglas Stone, Bruce Patton, Sheila Heen
4.10 · Rating details · 12,354 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/774088.Difficult_Conversations
Whether you're dealing with an under performing employee, disagreeing with your spouse about money or child-rearing, negotiating with a difficult client, or simply saying "no," or "I'm sorry," or "I love you," we attempt or avoid difficult conversation every day. Based on fifteen years of research at the Harvard Negotiation Project, Difficult Conversations walks you through a step-by-step proven approach to having your toughest conversations with less stress and more success.
You will learn: -- how to start the conversation without defensiveness -- why what is not said is as important as what is -- ways of keeping and regaining your balance in the face of attacks and accusations -- how to decipher the underlying structure of every difficult conversation
Filled with examples from everyday life, Difficult Conversations will help you on your job, at home, or out of the world. It is a book you will turn to again and again for advice, practical skills, and reassurance.
The Thinker's Guide to Socratic Questioning by Dr. Linda Elder
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/7276284-the-thinker-s-guide-to-socratic-questioning
Focuses on the mechanics of Socratic dialogue, on the conceptual tools that critical thinking brings to Socratic dialogue, and on the importance of questioning in cultivating the disciplined mind.
About author:
Dr. Linda Elder is an educational psychologist and a prominent authority on critical thinking. She is President of the Foundation for Critical Thinking and Executive Director of the Center for Critical Thinking.
From a review:
"...it is primarily a set of instructions detailing how to lead a Socratic dialog among (different ages of) K-12 students."
-Feliks
A Manual for Creating Atheists
by Peter Boghossian (Goodreads Author), Michael Shermer (Foreword) 3.93 · Rating details · 1,983 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/17937621-a-manual-for-creating-atheists
For thousands of years, the faithful have honed proselytizing strategies and talked people into believing the truth of one holy book or another. Indeed, the faithful often view converting others as an obligation of their faith—and are trained from an early age to spread their unique brand of religion. The result is a world broken in large part by unquestioned faith. As an urgently needed counter to this tried-and-true tradition of religious evangelism, A Manual for Creating Atheists offers the first-ever guide not for talking people into faith—but for talking them out of it. Peter Boghossian draws on the tools he has developed and used for more than twenty years as a philosopher and educator to teach how to engage the faithful in conversations that will help them value reason and rationality, cast doubt on their religious beliefs, mistrust their faith, abandon superstition, and irrationality, and ultimately embrace reason.
The Believing Brain: From Ghosts and Gods to Politics and Conspiracies How We Construct Beliefs and Reinforce Them as Truths
by Michael Shermer 3.93 · Rating details · 6,985 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/9754534-the-believing-brain
The Believing Brain is bestselling author Michael Shermer's comprehensive and provocative theory on how beliefs are born, formed, reinforced, challenged, changed, and extinguished.
In this work synthesizing thirty years of research, psychologist, historian of science, and the world's best-known skeptic Michael Shermer upends the traditional thinking about how humans form beliefs about the world. Simply put, beliefs come first and explanations for beliefs follow. The brain, Shermer argues, is a belief engine. From sensory data flowing in through the senses, the brain naturally begins to look for and find patterns, and then infuses those patterns with meaning. Our brains connect the dots of our world into meaningful patterns that explain why things happen, and these patterns become beliefs. Once beliefs are formed the brain begins to look for and find confirmatory evidence in support of those beliefs, which accelerates the process of reinforcing them, and round and round the process goes in a positive-feedback loop of belief confirmation. Shermer outlines the numerous cognitive tools our brains engage to reinforce our beliefs as truths.
Interlaced with his theory of belief, Shermer provides countless real-world examples of how this process operates, from politics, economics, and religion to conspiracy theories, the supernatural, and the paranormal. Ultimately, he demonstrates why science is the best tool ever devised to determine whether or not a belief matches reality.
Critical Thinking: Tools for Taking Charge of Your Professional and Personal Life
by Richard Paul,Linda Elder 3.93 · Rating details · 1,082 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/17296839-critical-thinking
Critical Thinking is about becoming a better thinker in every aspect of your life: in your career, and as a consumer, citizen, friend, parent, and lover. Discover the core skills of effective thinking; then analyze your own thought processes, identify weaknesses, and overcome them. Learn how to translate more effective thinking into better decisions, less frustration, more wealth Ñ and above all, greater confidence to pursue and achieve your most important goals in life.
The Thinker's Guide to Analytic Thinking by Linda Elder,Richard Paul
3.89 · Rating details · 163 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/19227921-the-thinker-s-guide-to-analytic-thinking
This guide focuses on the intellectual skills that enable one to analyze anything one might think about - questions, problems, disciplines, subjects, etc. It provides the common denominator between all forms of analysis.
It is based on the assumption that all reasoning can be taken apart and analyzed for quality.
This guide introduces the elements of reasoning as implicit in all reasoning. It begins with this idea - that whenever we think, we think for a purpose, within a point of view, based on assumptions, leading to implications and consequences. We use data, facts and experiences (information), to make inferences and judgments,based on concepts and theories to answer a question or solve a problem. Thus the elements of thought are: purpose, questions, information, inferences, assumptions, concepts, implications and point of view. In this guide, authors Linda Elder and Richard Paul explain, exemplify and contextualize these elements or structures of thought, showing the importance of analyzing reasoning in every part of human life. This guide can be used as a supplement to any text or course at the college level; and it may be used for improving thinking in personal and professional life.
The Thinker's Guide to Intellectual Standards by Linda Elder, Richard Paul
4.19 · Rating details · 16 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/19017637-the-thinker-s-guide-to-intellectual-standards
Humans routinely assess thinking – their own thinking, and that of others, and yet they don’t necessarily use standards for thought that are reasonable, rational, sound.
To think well, people need to routinely meet intellectual standards, standards of clarity, precision, accuracy, relevance, depth, logic, fairness, significance, and so forth.
In this guide authors Elder and Paul offer a brief analysis of some of the most important intellectual standards in the English language. They look at the opposites of these standards. They argue for their contextualization within subjects and disciplines. And, they call attention to the forces that undermine their skilled use in thinking well. At present intellectual standards tend to be either taught implicitly, or ignored in instruction. Yet because they are essential to high quality reasoning in every part of human life, they should be explicitly taught and explicitly understood.
The Truth Seeker’s Handbook: A Science-Based Guide by Gleb Tsipursky (Goodreads Author) 4.24 · Rating details · 63 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/36800752-the-truth-seeker-s-handbook
How do you know whether something is true? How do you convince others to believe the facts?
Research shows that the human mind is prone to making thinking errors - predictable mistakes that cause us to believe comfortable lies over inconvenient truths. These errors leave us vulnerable to making decisions based on false beliefs, leading to disastrous consequences for our personal lives, relationships, careers, civic and political engagement, and for our society as a whole.
Fortunately, cognitive and behavioral scientists have uncovered many useful strategies for overcoming our mental flaws.
This book presents a variety of research-based tools for ensuring that our beliefs are aligned with reality.
With examples from daily life and an engaging style, the book will provide you with the skills to avoid thinking errors and help others to do so, preventing disasters and facilitating success for yourself, those you care about, and our society.
On Being Certain: Believing You Are Right Even When You're Not
by Robert A. Burton 3.90 · Rating details · 2,165 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/2740964-on-being-certain
You recognize when you know something for certain, right? You "know" the sky is blue, or that the traffic light had turned green, or where you were on the morning of September 11, 2001--you know these things, well, because you just do. In On Being Certain, neurologist Robert Burton challenges the notions of how we think about what we know.
He shows that the feeling of certainty we have when we "know" something comes from sources beyond our control and knowledge.
In fact, certainty is a mental sensation, rather than evidence of fact.
Because this "feeling of knowing" seems like confirmation of knowledge, we tend to think of it as a product of reason.
But an increasing body of evidence suggests that feelings such as certainty stem from primitive areas of the brain, and are independent of active, conscious reflection and reasoning. The feeling of knowing happens to us; we cannot make it happen. Bringing together cutting edge neuroscience, experimental data, and fascinating anecdotes, Robert Burton explores the inconsistent and sometimes paradoxical relationship between our thoughts and what we actually know.
Provocative and groundbreaking, On Being Certain, will challenge what you know (or think you know) about the mind, knowledge, and reason.
Asking the Right Questions: A Guide to Critical Thinking
by M. Neil Browne, Stuart M. Keeley
3.94 · Rating details · 1,290 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/394398.Asking_the_Right_Questions
The habits and attitudes associated with critical thinking are transferable to consumer, medical, legal, and general ethical choices. When our surgeon says surgery is needed, it can be life sustaining to seek answers to the critical questions encouraged in Asking the Right Questions This popular book helps bridge the gap between simply memorizing or blindly accepting information, and the greater challenge of critical analysing the things we are told and read. It gives strategies for responding to alternative points of view and will help readers develop a solid foundation for making personal choices about what to accept and what to reject.
On Truth by Simon Blackburn 3.60 · Rating details · 62 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/36722220-on-truth
Truth is not just a recent topic of contention. Arguments about it have gone on for centuries. Why is the truth important? Who decides what the truth is? Is there such a thing as objective, eternal truth, or is truth simply a matter of perspective, of linguistic or cultural vantage point?
In this concise book Simon Blackburn provides an accessible explanation of what truth is and how we might think about it.
The first half of the book details several main approaches to how we should think about, and decide, what is true.
These are philosophical theories of truth such as the correspondence theory, the coherence theory, deflationism, and others.
He then examines how those approaches relate to truth in several contentious domains: art, ethics, reasoning, religion, and the interpretation of texts.
Blackburn's overall message is that truth is often best thought of not as a product or an end point that is 'finally' achieved, but--as the American pragmatist thinkers thought of it--as an ongoing process of inquiry. The result is an accessible and tour through some of the deepest and thorniest questions philosophy has ever tackled
Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman
4.16 · Rating details · 317,352 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/11468377-thinking-fast-and-slow?ac=1&from_search=true&qid=ZNhf1bAIxd&rank=1
In the highly anticipated Thinking, Fast and Slow, Kahneman takes us on a groundbreaking tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think. System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. Kahneman exposes the extraordinary capabilities—and also the faults and biases—of fast thinking, and reveals the pervasive influence of intuitive impressions on our thoughts and behavior. The impact of loss aversion and overconfidence on corporate strategies, the difficulties of predicting what will make us happy in the future, the challenges of properly framing risks at work and at home, the profound effect of cognitive biases on everything from playing the stock market to planning the next vacation—each of these can be understood only by knowing how the two systems work together to shape our judgments and decisions.
Engaging the reader in a lively conversation about how we think, Kahneman reveals where we can and cannot trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking.
He offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and our personal lives—and how we can use different techniques to guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble. Thinking, Fast and Slow will transform the way you think about thinking.
Before You Know It: The Unconscious Reasons We Do What We Do by John A. Bargh (Goodreads Author)
3.97 · Rating details · 788 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/35011639-before-you-know-it
Dr. John Bargh, the world’s leading expert on the unconscious mind, presents a “brilliant and convincing book” (Malcolm Gladwell) cited as an outstanding read of 2017 by Business Insider and The Financial Times—giving us an entirely new understanding of the hidden mental processes that secretly govern every aspect of our behavior.
For more than three decades, Dr. John Bargh has conducted revolutionary research into the unconscious mind, research featured in bestsellers like Blink and Thinking Fast and Slow. Now, in what Dr. John Gottman said was “the most important and exciting book in psychology that has been written in the past twenty years,” Dr. Bargh takes us on an entertaining and enlightening tour of the forces that affect everyday behavior while transforming our understanding of ourselves in profound ways.
Dr. Bargh takes us into his labs at New York University and Yale—where he and his colleagues have discovered how the unconscious guides our behavior, goals, and motivations in areas like race relations, parenting, business, consumer behavior, and addiction.
With infectious enthusiasm he reveals what science now knows about the pervasive influence of the unconscious mind in who we choose to date or vote for, what we buy, where we live, how we perform on tests and in job interviews, and much more.
Because the unconscious works in ways we are completely unaware of, Before You Know It is full of surprising and entertaining revelations as well as useful tricks to help you remember items on your to-do list, to shop smarter, and to sleep better.
Before You Know It is “a fascinating compendium of landmark social-psychology research” (Publishers Weekly) and an introduction to a fabulous world that exists below the surface of your awareness and yet is the key to knowing yourself and unlocking new ways of thinking, feeling, and behaving.
Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/38315.Fooled_by_Randomness
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb 4.07 · Rating details · 49,010 ratings
Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand.
Philosophy books
Epistemology by Richard Feldman 3.84 · Rating details · 182 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/387295.Epistemology
Sophisticated yet accessible and easy to read, this introduction to contemporary philosophical questions about knowledge and rationality goes beyond the usual bland survey of the major current views to show that there is argument involved. Throughout, the author provides a fair and balanced blending of the standard positions on epistemology with his own carefully reasoned positions or stances into the analysis of each concept. KEY TOPICS: Epistemological Questions. The Traditional Analysis of Knowledge. Modifying the Traditional Analysis of Knowledge. Evidentialist Theories of Justification. Non-evidentialist Theories of Knowledge and Justification. Skepticism. Epistemology and Science. Relativism.
Problems of Knowledge: A Critical Introduction to Epistemology by Michael J. Williams
3.79 · Rating details · 86 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/477904.Problems_of_Knowledge
"What is epistemology or 'the theory of knowledge'? Why does it matter? What makes theorizing about knowledge 'philosophical'? And why do some philosophers argue that epistemology - perhaps even philosophy itself - is dead?" "
In this introduction, Michael Williams answers these questions, showing how epistemological theorizing is sensitive to a range of questions about the nature, limits, methods, and value of knowing.
He pays special attention to the challenge of philosophical scepticism: does our 'knowledge' rest on brute assumptions? Does the rational outlook undermine itself?"
Williams explains and criticizes all the main contemporary philosophical perspectives on human knowledge, such as foundationalism, the coherence theory, and 'naturalistic' theories. As an alternative to all of them, he defends his distinctive contextualist approach.
As well as providing an accessible introduction for any reader approaching the subject for the first time, this book incorporates Williams's own ideas which will be of interest to all philosophers concerned with the theory of knowledge.
Epistemology: A Contemporary Introduction to the Theory of Knowledge by Robert Audi
3.54 · Rating details · 176 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/477976.Epistemology
This comprehensive book introduces the concepts and theories central for understanding knowledge. It aims to reach students who have already done an introductory philosophy course. Topics covered include perception and reflection as grounds of knowledge, and the nature, structure, and varieties of knowledge. The character and scope of knowledge in the crucial realms of ethics, science and religion are also considered. Unique features of Epistemology:

• Provides a comprehensive survey of basic concepts and major theories
• Gives an up-to-date account of important developments in the field
• Contains many lucid examples to support ideas
• Cites key literature in an annotated bibliography.

The Oxford Handbook of Thinking and Reasoning
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/14829260-the-oxford-handbook-of-thinking-and-reasoning
by Keith J. Holyoak (Editor), Robert G. Morrison (Editor)
4.08 · Rating details · 12 ratings
Thinking and reasoning, long the academic province of philosophy, have over the past century emerged as core topics of empirical investigation and theoretical analysis in the modern fields of cognitive psychology, cognitive science, and cognitive neuroscience. Formerly seen as too complicated and amorphous to be included in early textbooks on the science of cognition, the study of thinking and reasoning has since taken off, brancing off in a distinct direction from the field from which it originated.
The Oxford Handbook of Thinking and Reasoning is a comprehensive and authoritative handbook covering all the core topics of the field of thinking and reasoning.
Written by the foremost experts from cognitive psychology, cognitive science, and cognitive neuroscience, individual chapters summarize basic concepts and findings for a major topic, sketch its history, and give a sense of the directions in which research is currently heading.
Chapters include introductions to foundational issues and methods of study in the field, as well as treatment of specific types of thinking and reasoning and their application in a broad range of fields including business, education, law, medicine, music, and science.
The volume will be of interest to scholars and students working in developmental, social and clinical psychology, philosophy, economics, artificial intelligence, education, and linguistics.
Feminist Epistemologies
(Thinking Gender) by Linda Martín Alcoff, Elizabeth Potter 4.14 · Rating details · 43 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/477960.Feminist_Epistemologies
Noticed this review by an evangelical:
"I have found this an immensely suggestive book, collecting as it does essays from both prominent and rising figures in feminist philosophy of knowledge--albeit from about two decades ago. I am struck by how little impact feminist thought, even of this high and generally temperate quality, has had on evangelical theology, to the shame of my guild."
-John
The Invisible Gorilla: And Other Ways Our Intuitions Deceive Us
by Christopher Chabris, Daniel Simons 3.91 Rating details · 13,537 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/7783191-the-invisible-gorilla
Reading this book will make you less sure of yourself—and that’s a good thing. In The Invisible Gorilla, Christopher Chabris and Daniel Simons, creators of one of psychology’s most famous experiments, use remarkable stories and counterintuitive scientific findings to demonstrate an important truth: Our minds don’t work the way we think they do. We think we see ourselves and the world as they really are, but we’re actually missing a whole lot.
Again and again, we think we experience and understand the world as it is, but our thoughts are beset by everyday illusions. We write traffic laws and build criminal cases on the assumption that people will notice when something unusual happens right in front of them. We’re sure we know where we were on 9/11, falsely believing that vivid memories are seared into our minds with perfect fidelity. And as a society, we spend billions on devices to train our brains because we’re continually tempted by the lure of quick fixes and effortless self-improvement.
The Invisible Gorilla reveals the myriad ways that our intuitions can deceive us, but it’s much more than a catalog of human failings. Chabris and Simons explain why we succumb to these everyday illusions and what we can do to inoculate ourselves against their effects. Ultimately, the book provides a kind of x-ray vision into our own minds, making it possible to pierce the veil of illusions that clouds our thoughts and to think clearly for perhaps the first time.
The Honest Truth About Dishonesty: How We Lie to Everyone - Especially Ourselves by Dan Ariely 3.94 · Rating details · 13,620 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/13426114-the-honest-truth-about-dishonesty
The New York Times bestselling author of Predictably Irrational and The Upside of Irrationality returns with thought-provoking work to challenge our preconceptions about dishonesty and urge us to take an honest look at ourselves.
Does the chance of getting caught affect how likely we are to cheat? How do companies pave the way for dishonesty? Does collaboration make us more honest or less so? Does religion improve our honesty?
Most of us think of ourselves as honest, but, in fact, we all cheat.
From Washington to Wall Street, the classroom to the workplace, unethical behavior is everywhere. None of us is immune, whether it's the white lie to head off trouble or padding our expense reports. In The (Honest) Truth About Dishonesty, award-winning, bestselling author Dan Ariely turns his unique insight and innovative research to the question of dishonesty.
Generally, we assume that cheating, like most other decisions, is based on a rational cost-benefit analysis.
But Ariely argues, and then demonstrates, that it's actually the irrational forces that we don't take into account that often determine whether we behave ethically or not.
For every Enron or political bribe, there are countless puffed résumés, hidden commissions, and knockoff purses. In The (Honest) Truth About Dishonesty, Ariely shows why some things are easier to lie about; how getting caught matters less than we think; and how business practices pave the way for unethical behavior, both intentionally and unintentionally. Ariely explores how unethical behavior works in the personal, professional, and political worlds, and how it affects all of us, even as we think of ourselves as having high moral standards.
But all is not lost. Ariely also identifies what keeps us honest, pointing the way for achieving higher ethics in our everyday lives. With compelling personal and academic findings, The (Honest) Truth About Dishonesty will change the way we see ourselves, our actions, and others.
How to Stop Believing in Hell: a Schizophrenic's Religious Experience: Intellectual Honesty and Hallucinations - A Memoir
by Robert Clayton Kimball
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/22020049-how-to-stop-believing-in-hell
it was amazing 5.00 · Rating details · 1 rating Kirkus Reviews:
“…Kimball’s debut explores his hallucinatory religious mania, from his early childhood onward, beginning when he attended Catholic school. The early pages guide readers through narratives of his uncomfortable childhood traumas, sometimes in ugly detail…. Various other moments of shame revolved around school. Finding sex repugnant and sinful, he decided early on to remain celibate; he avoided sex until his eventual institutionalization. Meanwhile, hallucinatory monsters—including Lorus, “a turbulent face, golden like the comedy mask…”—and company pushed him away from religion, though he did convert to Pentecostalism in spite of them. Through this process, Kimball developed a solipsistic worldview, in which he was never sure others existed. Ultimately, though, it was his fear of damnation that became his greatest obsession, driving all the rest of his delusions and fears. He does exhibit a flair for description…: “On summer evenings, I liked to stand on the arroyo side of the house at night, alone, feeling the desert breeze through the tamarisks and smelling the clean desert smells in the warm darkness. The long row of tamarisks, with its tens of thousands of insects of a thousand species, hummed like the telephone network in The Castle, a beautiful, accidental music.’”
Author’s Description:
How to Stop Believing in Hell, describes the narrator's passage from a golden childhood to an adolescence of cringing guilt and religious fear. By the age of thirty, he had become a deranged street person, screaming horrible obscenities on crowded sidewalks in broad daylight. He desperately tried to stop but couldn’t. He was still filled with the fear of Hell. Then he had a spiritual awakening, broke free of his dementia, and learned to act deliberately. A paperback copy of this book can be purchased through my publisher, Chipmunka Publishing at their web site.
The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark
by Carl Sagan, Ann Druyan (Goodreads Author)
4.27 · Rating details · 59,893 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/17349.The_Demon_Haunted_World
How can we make intelligent decisions about our increasingly technology-driven lives if we don’t understand the difference between the myths of pseudoscience and the testable hypotheses of science? Pulitzer Prize-winning author and distinguished astronomer Carl Sagan argues that scientific thinking is critical not only to the pursuit of truth but to the very well-being of our democratic institutions.
Casting a wide net through history and culture, Sagan examines and authoritatively debunks such celebrated fallacies of the past as witchcraft, faith healing, demons, and UFOs. And yet, disturbingly, in today's so-called information age, pseudoscience is burgeoning with stories of alien abduction, channeling past lives, and communal hallucinations commanding growing attention and respect. As Sagan demonstrates with lucid eloquence, the siren song of unreason is not just a cultural wrong turn but a dangerous plunge into darkness that threatens our most basic freedoms.
How to Think about Weird Things: Critical Thinking for a New Age
by Theodore Schick Jr. Lewis Vaughn, Martin Gardner (Foreword)
4.00 · Rating details · 530 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/41756.How_to_Think_about_Weird_Things
This text serves well as a supplemental text in:

• critical thinking
• logic
• introduction to philosophy
• philosophy of science
• epistemology
• metaphysics
• introduction to psychology
• anomalistic psychology
• perception and cognition

as well as any introductory science course.
It has been used in all of the courses mentioned above as well as introductory biology, introductory physics, and introductory chemistry courses. It could also serve as a main text for courses in evaluation of the paranormal, philosophical implications of the paranormal, occult beliefs, and pseudoscience.
Popular Statistics
Naked Statistics: Stripping the Dread from the Data
by Charles Wheelan 3.94 · Rating details · 10,367 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/17986418-naked-statistics
Once considered tedious, the field of statistics is rapidly evolving into a discipline Hal Varian, chief economist at Google, has actually called “sexy.” From batting averages and political polls to game shows and medical research, the real-world application of statistics continues to grow by leaps and bounds. How can we catch schools that cheat on standardized tests? How does Netflix know which movies you’ll like? What is causing the rising incidence of autism? As best-selling author Charles Wheelan shows us in Naked Statistics, the right data and a few well-chosen statistical tools can help us answer these questions and more. For those who slept through Stats 101, this book is a lifesaver. Wheelan strips away the arcane and technical details and focuses on the underlying intuition that drives statistical analysis. He clarifies key concepts such as inference, correlation, and regression analysis, reveals how biased or careless parties can manipulate or misrepresent data, and shows us how brilliant and creative researchers are exploiting the valuable data from natural experiments to tackle thorny questions.
And in Wheelan’s trademark style, there’s not a dull page in sight. You’ll encounter clever Schlitz Beer marketers leveraging basic probability, an International Sausage Festival illuminating the tenets of the central limit theorem, and a head-scratching choice from the famous game show Let’s Make a Deal—and you’ll come away with insights each time. With the wit, accessibility, and sheer fun that turned Naked Economics into a bestseller, Wheelan defies the odds yet again by bringing another essential, formerly unglamorous discipline to life.
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don't by Nate Silver
3.98 · Rating details · 43,804 ratings · 3,049 reviews
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/13588394-the-signal-and-the-noise
One of Wall Street Journal's Best Ten Works of Nonfiction in 2012
New York Times Bestseller
"Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy and public figures like Walter Cronkite helped sway opinion on the Vietnam War…could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade." -New York Times Book Review
"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century." -Rachel Maddow, author of Drift
"A serious treatise about the craft of prediction-without academic mathematics-cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism." -New York Review of Books
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger-all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com.
Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox": The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.
In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good-or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary-and dangerous-science.
Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.
With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read.
Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way: Understanding Statistics and Probability with Star Wars, Lego, and Rubber Ducks
by Will Kurt 4.21 · Rating details · 128 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/41392893-bayesian-statistics-the-fun-way
Fun guide to learning Bayesian statistics and probability through unusual and illustrative examples.
Probability and statistics are increasingly important in a huge range of professions. But many people use data in ways they don't even understand, meaning they aren't getting the most from it. Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way will change that.
This book will give you a complete understanding of Bayesian statistics through simple explanations and un-boring examples. Find out the probability of UFOs landing in your garden, how likely Han Solo is to survive a flight through an asteroid shower, how to win an argument about conspiracy theories, and whether a burglary really was a burglary, to name a few examples.
By using these off-the-beaten-track examples, the author actually makes learning statistics fun. And you'll learn real skills, like how to:

• How to measure your own level of uncertainty in a conclusion or belief
• Calculate Bayes theorem and understand what it's useful for
• Find the posterior, likelihood, and prior to check the accuracy of your conclusions
• Calculate distributions to see the range of your data
• Compare hypotheses and draw reliable conclusions from them

Next time you find yourself with a sheaf of survey results and no idea what to do with them, turn to Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way to get the most value from your data.

There are some notable injuries for today's NBA slate that can generate some insane value for some teams, particularly the Wizards. With most players questionable that have games one hour after the main slate starts, let's preview some safer and some ballsy plays of the day. Hopefully, we know the injury news of those 2:00 PM PST games as soon as possible.
​
Raptors

• Kyle Lowry (Questionable to Out), Pascal Siakam (Out)
• If Lowry is out, there are 2 main players I would choose on the Raptors. Norman Powell is the no brainer play as I expect him to be quite chalky assuming Lowry is out during the Early Only Slate. He will see about 30 mins of playing time which allows him to have tremendous upside. At a 5000 price, he is a great play as I expected him to be 6000. He needs 25 + fantasy points for value and he has achieved this for the 3 games he played 28 + mins in.
• Fred VanVleet is the secondary play I would put into consideration. Assuming the game stays close, he will get 35 - 40 mins in a game which is more than enough mins for him to get 5 times value + at his 8000 price. While he did flop last game with Lowry out (dropped 33.5 fantasy points), I expect him to do much better this time as it was just an off day for VanVleet. VanVleet will take over much of the point guard duties while Lowry is out, some increased usage, assists, and scoring is something we should expect.
• EDIT - Since Siakam is now out, everybody in the Raptors Rotation is now viable fantasy options. Mainly VanVleet, Powell, Anunoby, Baynes, Boucher, and Johnson are the 6 players I will have in my lineups.
• People may be hesitant to play Raptors players because they are going up against the Pacers who are notable for their strong defense. Their defense is good, but I find it overrated, so I would not be discouraged from playing Raptors players.

​
Pacers

• TJ Warren (Out), Caris LeVert (Out)
• There are 3 players to watch here. Jeremy Lamb is getting more and more mins each game. He went from playing 19 mins to playing 28 mins the next game. He may eclipse 30 mins as the current 6th man for the Pacers for today's game. He has so far looked really good, so he is a good play for cash games, but I find him a much better play for GPP games. His fantasy points mainly come from scoring, so if his shot is off, your lineup will suffer greatly from it. Considering the Lamb only likes taking shots close to the basket, this may not be a problem at all.
• The other play to watch for is Doug McDermott. He is starting as the SF for the Pacers are has had no problem getting to 5 times value + even with Myles Turner on the court. In a similar and opposite way to Lamb, McDermott's fantasy points only come from scoring, however, it comes from 3 point shooting instead of 2 point shooting. This makes McDermott a better GPP play than a cash play, but I would still play him in both fantasy game formats.
• TJ McConnell is the last good play to look at here. He is only priced at 4400, but just played 31 mins last game. He has taken over Aaron Holiday's role in the rotation which means TJ McConnell is almost a lock on the Early Only Slate.

​
Thunder

• Al Horford (Out)
• This makes Isaiah Roby the main beneficiary here as he replaces Horford in the starting lineup. I would designate Roby as a GPP only play though. He almost always gets into foul trouble every game which severely limits his upside and playing time. On top of that, he is going against the tough matchup of the Clippers and will not play in any garbage time. The Clippers are currently - 1200 money line favorites to win the game and the spread is at - 13.0 points. This game is essentially projected to be a blowout which makes me quite hesitant to play Roby.
• You can take a shot at Shai Gilgeous-Alexander here, but he may get fewer mins with a potential Clippers blowout. There are more scoring and rebounding opportunities with Horford out and if you want to play the revenge narrative with SGA facing his former Clippers team, then taking a shot at SGA is not bad at all. He is going to be the clear leader of the team and his 8200 price is not too terrible at all.

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Celtics

• Jayson Tatum (Out), Payton Pritchard (Out)
• With Tatum and Pritchard out, this puts 4 Celtics players in the conversation. Jeff Teague and Kemba Walker have an interesting relationship. If Walker (possibly Smart too) gets more mins, then Teague's mins will not go up in Pritchard's absence. This makes Walker an OK play, but his 6800 price is still a little bit expensive with him coming back from a bad injury. If Teague gets more mins, then he instantly becomes a more viable GPP play at his low 4300 price. Guessing their PG mins split is basically impossible, so I would only play Teague and Walker in a GPP setting only.
• With Pritchard out last game, Marcus Smart saw a crazy 39 mins. This gives him absolutely tremendous upside. With him essentially playing as the number 2 option with Walker still getting back into a rhythm from being injured, he is one of the best mid-priced players on the slate. His price is only 6400 which I would have expected to be 7000 +. Definitely have a lot of Marcus Smart in your lineups.
• The most common sense player from the Celtics to play is Jaylen Brown. With Tatum out, he becomes the number 1 option. With Pritchard out, he will have the ball in his hands more too. Walker's presence has done nothing to stop Brown from demolishing other teams as he dropped 60.3 fantasy points last game against one of the best defensive teams in the Sixers. I find his 8300 price to be too cheap, so definitely play a lot of Jaylen Brown too.

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Magic

• Al-Farouq Aminu (Questionable to Out)
• If Aminu is playing tomorrow, then he would a total shot in the dark GPP play only. I have no idea if he even gets mins (even though he should). He should definitely get mins ahead of Gary Clark, but the question is whether or not he will siphon the mins from James Ennis III and possibly Dwayne Bacon. He is at the minimum 3500 price, and Aminu taking all of Clark's mins and some of Ennis's mins might let him pay 20 - 25 mins. This should give him enough upside in a GPP game only.

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Hawks

• Trae Young (Questionable), De'Andre Hunter (Questionable)
• There are quite a few players to look out for on the Hawks if Young, Hunter, or both are out. If both are out, Hill, Rondo, Goodwin, Reddish, Huerter, and Gallinari all instantly become more viable plays. If just Young is out, Rondo, Goodwin, Reddish, and Huerter all become viable plays. If just Hunter is out, Hill, Reddish, Huerter, and Gallinari all become viable plays.
• The mins split between Rajon Rondo and Brandon Goodwin will be up to guesswork if Young is out. I would rather play Rondo, but he still may see limited mins. Rondo is ahead of Goodwin in the rotation, so we need to wait for what the starting Hawks lineup will be. If Rondo starts, I will be all over him. If Goodwin starts, I will still play Rondo but not as much. I would not be opposed to playing both PG's, but I view Rondo as more of a cash play and Goodwin as more of a GPP play.
• Cam Reddish and Kevin Huerter are great plays too. Both have great upside but can have games where they flop and do terribly. With that said, I am not opposed to playing them in cash games at all. With Young, Hunter, or both being out, they will be direct beneficiaries of getting the ball more in their hands. Do not hesitate at all to play these 2 guys.
• Danilo Gallinari is a GPP play only. His mins are unpredictable as of now and him getting only 14 mins again like last game will screw your lineups up at his 4800 price.
• Solomon Hill is another GPP only play. He may see his mins uptick in the 20's with the Hawks injuries, but I am not completely certain. If Gallinari gets more mins, then I would expect Hills mins to decline. Mainly focus on Rondo, Goodwin, Reddish, and Hueter for the best Hawks plays.

​
Wizards

• Raul Neto (Questionable), Russell Westbrook (Questionable), Deni Avdija (Out), Davis Bertans (Out), Troy Brown Jr (Out), Rui Hachimura (Out), Ish Smith (Out), Moritz Wagner (Out)
• This is where you may want to have 4 players from the same team in your lineups. The Wizards' active roster is completely cut dry. There are a metric TON of options from this team to play. Literally, every player on the Wizards is all viable plays until further lineup news. Assuming Neto and Westbrook are out, the Wizards' active roster will consist of Beal, Winston, Robinson, Matthews, Bonga, Gill, Lopez, Len, and Bell. The Wizards rotation has been as little as 7 players and as many as 10 players. It is quite difficult to predict what their rotation will be exactly, but anybody that is starting is instantly the first priority to play from the Wizards.
• On the assumption that only Raul Neto plays and Russell Westbrook is out, Neto will be somebody to play a lot of. He will get the starting role and will get the bulk of the PG mins as Cassius Winston and Jerome Robinson are just not good players compared to him. This means that Winston will most likely be out of the rotation. Robinson will play backup PG, so he is a good play too.
• On the assumption that Raul Neto is out and Russell Westbrook plays, somebody is going to have to be the backup PG to Westbrook. It may either be Winston or Robinson. I would lean towards Robinson, but Robinson may start as the starting SG pushing Beal to SF. I play a lot of Robinson, but I will back off of Winston entirely as I just do not trust his mins in this specific scenario. I would still be playing both Beal and Westbrook too.
• On the assumption that Raul Neto and Russell Westbrook play, Westbrook is an amazing play too (even with Bradley Beal on the court). He is going to need to do everything for this team and fill up the stat sheet with so many players absent from the Wizards. This means that Neto will play backup PG which makes me more hesitant to play him. I may play a little bit of him, but that is it. This means that Robinson may not play at all. He still may play backup or even start as an SG instead pushing Beal to SF. Watch for lineup news related to him because that will make him a great play for the day. I would still be playing both Beal and Westbrook too.
• On the assumption that both Raul Neto and Russell Westbrook are out, all of the Wizards active players instantly become good plays in my opinion. Because it is quite common sense to know who are the best plays and who are not for the Wizards, I will just list the best plays instead from best to worst assuming both Neto and Westbrook are out. The order is Bradley Beal, Garrison Matthews, Jerome Robinson, Robin Lopez, Isaac Bonga, Anthony Gill, Jordan Bell, Alex Len, and Cassius Winston.
• My advice for the 4 main players (from best to worst plays) to have in your lineups (if you want to play 4 players from the Wizards in your lineups) assuming . . .
  • Neto Plays, Westbrook Out - Beal, Neto, Matthews, Lopez
  • Neto Out, Westbrook Plays - Beal, Westbrook, Matthews, Robinson
  • Neto Out, Westbrook Out - Beal, Matthews, Robinson, Lopez

​
Spurs

• Dejounte Murray (Questionable)
• There are 4 players to choose from if Murray is out. DeMar DeRozan is the obvious first choice as he will get more usage, assists, scoring, and rebounds in Murray's absence. DeRozan is at an AMAZING price of only 7700. If Murray is out, I am going to be all over him. He is one of the best SG options for this slate, and do not pass up on him if Murray is out. Even with Murray playing, DeRozan is still a great SG play.
• Keldon Johnson is another great play for the Spurs. Murray's absence is going to allow him to score and rebound at higher rates. His 6600 price is quite high for my liking, but with Murray's absence, he should be able to get that 5 times + value.
• Patty Mills is one of the best cheap plays of the slate assuming Murray is out. When Murray was out last game, Mills' mins skyrocketed from around 23 mins to 36 mins. His fantasy points are only reliant on his 3 point scoring, but he will be able to chuck several 3 point shots up if he gets 36 mins again. At his extremely low price of 4000, he can EASILY hit 5 times + value.
• Lonnie Walker is another good cheap play for the Spurs. He most likely will not get an uptick in mins with Murray out, but he will get more scoring and rebounding opportunities. He is only 4200 and I would definitely play him in GPP games only, not cash games. He can flop for 5.6 fantasy points like he did against the Warriors 2 games ago. His inconsistencies alone make him a GPP only play for me.
• An added bonus for the 4 players I listed above is the fact that the Wizards are TRASH at defense. They rank 29th in defensive rating and with a metric ton of their players out for this slate, their defense will only get much worse. What this means is that the Spurs are effectively going up against the worst defensive team in the league. Another added bonus is that this will be a fast-paced game. The Wizards are ranked 1st in pace (I do not expect that to change even with a bunch of players out) and the Spurs are actually ranked 10th in pace. People often think of the Spurs as some old, slow team but they are surprisingly not.

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Knicks

• Austin Rivers (Questionable), Reggie Bullock (Doubtful)
• Assuming Bullock is out, I would just play whoever takes his starting role in the Knicks rotation. Will that be Burks, Quickley, or Rivers if he plays? Tom Thibodeau always makes his players' mins a mystery besides Randle, Barrett, and Robinson outside of foul trouble. He is quite unpredictable and tends to ride the hot hand a lot which makes me quite nervous to play the Knicks role players. My assumption is Burks and Quickley will get the uptick in mins regardless if Rivers is out or not.
• If Quickley starts, Burks is still a viable play. If Burks starts, however, I will not be playing any Quickley or Rivers (if he is playing) at all. Thibodeau does not like playing any rookies in the first place (as evident with Nerlens Noel getting all of the mins over Obi Toppin) which is why I am quite hesitant to play Quickley in this specific situation.

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Trailblazers

• Jusuf Nurkic (Out), CJ McCollum (Out)
• While Rodney Hood sounds like an enticing option with McCollum out, I am completely staying off of him for today's slate. This is simply because he is extremely inconsistent, has his fantasy points only come from 3 point scoring, is coming off a terrible Achilles Injury, and is only playing around 25 mins a game. He is priced too high at 5000 and I would rather play other Blazers' players.
• Enes Kanter would be the logical play with Nurkic out, but like Rodney Hood, he is simply just too expensive at 6500. Kanter is seeing around 27 - 28 mins a game which is good enough for his upside along with the Knicks revenge narrative (if you believe that), but I just find the Lopez brothers, Mitchell Robinson, and Bismack Biyombo to be better Center plays for today's slate. All 4 of them are much cheaper than Kanter too.
• Somebody to have on your fantasy radar is Gary Trent Jr. He completely flopped only dropping 6.1 fantasy points in his 23 mins last game, but he is priced at only 3600. This means he is a GPP play only with his low price + inconsistency + moderate upside.
• The most common sense play for the Trailblazers is Damian Lillard. I would not put it past him to drop 80 + fantasy points in some game with CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic out. The dude literally dropped 65.9 fantasy points in 28 MINS against the Timberwolves WITH Nurkic and McCollum playing. If he played 35 mins that game, he for sure would have had 80 + fantasy points. I think he has the second-highest upside of the entire slate (behind Bradley Beal with Russell Westbrook out), and he is one of the best PG plays of the slate. He is a great cheaper pivot from Trae Young or Russell Westbrook. Even with the amazing defense of Elfrid Payton, I do not think it matters if Damian Lillard is the person he has to guard.

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Good Plays from Teams without Critical Players Out

• Clippers - Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Serge Ibaka
• Cavaliers - None
• Hornets - Bismack Biyombo, PJ Washington
• Magic - Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic
• Bucks - Jrue Holiday, Donte DiVincenzo, Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez

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Main Slate Lineups
Cash Game Lineup 1 - Robinson, Rondo, Beal, DeRozan, Brown, Johnson, Randle, Aldridge, Robin Lopez
Cash Game Lineup 2 - Westbrook, Mills, Beal, Reddish, Brown, Johnson, Aldridge, Covington, Robinson
GPP Game Lineup 1 - Lillard, Mills, Beal, Matthews, Brown, Bonga, Antetokounmpo, Gill, Brook Lopez
GPP Game Lineup 2 - Westbrook, Lillard, Beal, Reddish, Brown, Bonga, Covington, Gill, Brook Lopez
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NOTE - Lineups are updated, finalized, and posted here around 10 mins before the slate starts