What do I need to know before visiting Monte-Carlo Casino?

Prince Rainier III (1923-2005)
Rainier’s mother, Princess Charlotte, was actually illegitimate. Her father Louis II, getting older and with no legitimate children, legitimized her and made her his heir. She never took the throne, and in fact renounced her rights to her son, Rainier, the day before his 21st birthday.
Rainier became the Sovereign Prince of Monaco upon the death of his grandfather in 1949.
During WW2, Rainier served in the Free French Army. During the 40s and 50s he was in a long term relationship with the French film actress Gisele Pascal. Rainier’s sister, Princess Antoinette, wanted her own son to ascend to the throne, and spread rumors that Pascal was infertile. The rumors along with her treatment by the press and public ended their relationship.
After the war Monaco, a country who made its money primarily as a gambling origin, was in crisis as wealthy Europeans found their funds diminished after the war. To restore Monaco’s treasury Rainier decided to promote Monaco as a tax haven, and he personally took control of SBM (the company who owns the Monte Carlo Casino, Opera, and Hostel de Paris) in 1964. Prince Albert still retains a large share of the company and profits from it today.
Marriage:
Everyone knows this one. Rainier married American film star Grace Kelly in 1956.
Their marriage is rumored to have been turbulent. It is said that Grace struggled with adjusting to royal life, regretted ending her film career, and that Rainier had extramarital affairs. Her children have stated that though she was a loving mother, they spent more time with nannies than with their parents.
Grace's dress is iconic, but here you go if you want to revisit some photos from that day.
Rainier smoked up to 60 cigarettes per day, and in the last years of his life his health steadily declined. On March 8th, 2005 he entered the hospital for a lung infection and by the end of the month he was on a ventilator suffering from renal and heart failure. On March 31st he officially announced his son Albert, as regent, and on April 6th he died.
The Constitution
Monaco’s constitution stated that Monaco is a constitutional monarchy ruled by the hereditary princes of the Grimaldi. If the reigning prince were to die without leaving a male heir, Monaco, according to the treaty, would be incorporated into France. In 2002, realizing he had a 43 year old bachelor son, Rainier amended the constitution to allow the crown to pass to his daughters should Albert not marry.
Grace, Princess of Monaco (1929-1982)
Grace was born in Philadelphia to an affluent and influential family. Her father was an Olympian and a Democratic nominee for Mayor of Philadelphia and was appointed by President Roosevelt as National Director of Physical Fitness. Her mother taught physical education at the University of Pennsylvania and coached women’s athletics at Penn.
Her Uncle, George Kelly, was a Pulitzer prize winning dramatist, screenwriter, and director and used his influence to gain Grace admission to the American Academy of Dramatic Arts in New York. Grace became one of the biggest movie stars of her generation.
In 1955 she was sent to the Cannes Film Festival and invited to appear in photos with Prince Rainier. After a year-long courtship, they were married in 1956.
Grace was not allowed to continue her acting career after her marriage. She instead devoted herself to her role as Princess, become heavily involved with the Red Cross of Monaco and the Rainbow Children Coalition.
On September 13, 1982, Kelly was driving back to Monaco after spending time at her country home. During the drive she had a stroke, lost control of her vehicle, and drove off the mountainside. She died a day later.
An article on their relationship
Prince Albert II (b. 1958)
Prince Albert is one of the wealthiest royals in the world with a net worth at more than $1B. He attended Amherst College in Massachusetts, studying political science, economics, music, and English literature, and completed his education with a Bachelor of Arts degree in Political Science. He toured Europe in 1979 as part of the Amherst College Glee Club.
Albert competed in the bobsleigh for five consecutive Winter Olympics on behalf of Monaco, and was their flag bearer at the 1988, 1994, and 1998 Olympics. He is also a judo black belt.
He became Prince of Monaco when his father died in 2005.
Marriage:
Prior to his marriage his status as a bachelor was a hot topic of discussion. He was known to date well-known fashion models and actresses, however at age 53 had never married. It was rumored that Albert was gay, something he expressed great frustration with in the press. In 2006 he attended the opening ceremony of the Torino Olympics with South African swimmer Charlene Wittstock. They were engaged in 2010, and married in 2011.
There are rumors that Charlene tried to flee the country the day before their wedding. It is reported that the future bride, after discovering Albert may have fathered yet another child during their relationship, attempted to flee as many as three times before their wedding, however was always intercepted at the airport. It is also said she attempted to seek refuge at the South African embassy, and that officials in Monaco ended up hiding her passport so she could not leave the country.
Moreover, during their wedding, Charlene openly cried at parts, and Prince Albert was caught on camera begging her to kiss him. Honestly, she looked pretty miserable the whole time. The palace has denied all of these claims.
During their honeymoon, they stayed in separate hotels
Here's everything you ever needed to know about their wedding
Watch it
Prince Albert is passionate about the environment and an avid sportsman. Prince Albert speaks French, English, German, and Italian. He speaks English with basically no accent thanks to his American mother.
Illegitimate Children
In 2005, the day before Prince Rainier died, Albert publicly acknowledged he had fathered a son out of wedlock. In 2006, he confirmed he had also fathered a daughter. These children were barred from the line of inheritance because of a 2002 constitutional amendment requiring an heir’s parents to be married.
Alexandre (b. 2003)
Alexandre’s mother (Nicole Coste) was a flight attendant for Air France and met Prince Albert when he was a passenger on a flight. He asked for her number, the beginning of a years-long affair. The relationship ended at the insistence of Prince Rainier. Albert visited Alexandre and Nicole often, however when he refused to acknowledge Alexandre publicly, Nicole sold an interview and pictures to the media. Albert was in mourning for his father and made no public comment, but later did acknowledge paternity. Alexandre and Nicole live in France at an estate given to them by Albert.
Jazmin (b. 1992)
Jazmin’s mother, Tamara, met Albert while working as a waitress. Albert knew of Jazmin and visited her, however did not acknowledge her publicly until she was in high school to protect her identity. In 2006 the French magazine Voici published photographs of Jazmin and her mother on a visit to Monaco, outing her as Albert’s daughter. She has attended events with Albert and Charlene, and is listed as a sponsor for her father’s royal foundation.
An interview with Jazmin
Princess Charlene (b. 1978)
Born in Zimbabwe, Charlene’s family relocated to South Africa in 1989. She represented South Africa at the 2000 Sydney Olympics, finished fifth in the 4x100 meter relay.
Albert and Charlene met at the Mare Nostrum swimming competition in Monaco in 2000, however were not seen together until 2006.
Charlene converted to Roman Catholicism for her wedding, and has learned French and Monegasque after her move to Monaco. She is an ambassador for the Special Olympics, patron of the South African Red Cross, and is passionate about sport.
In recent news, she completed “the crossing” water bike challenge, a 180 kilometer water bike race for charity.
An interview with Charlene and Albert on the 1st birthday of their twins
Albert and Charlene have 2 children:
Hereditary Prince Jacques *twin* (b. 2014)
Princess Gabriella *twin* (b. 2014)
Gabriella was born 2 minutes before her brother, however because of the constitution her brother will inherit the throne. They are super sweet together and you see them at events often.
Princess Caroline of Hanover (b. 1957)
Caroline is the eldest child of Rainier and Grace Kelly, however because of the constitution her brother, Albert, sits on the throne of Monaco. She served as de facto first lady of Monaco until the marriage of Albert and Charlene.
Until the birth of her niece and nephew she was heir presumptive to the throne, although she had only held that title since 2005 after the change of the constitution to include female heirs.
Caroline received her French baccalaureat in 1974, and received a degree in Philosophy from Sorbonne University. She is fluent in French, English, Spanish, German, and Italian. Her hobbies include horseback riding, swimming, and skiing.
Marriages:

Marriage 1: Philippe Junot

Married Phillippe, a Parisian banker, in 1978. The couple divorced in 1980 with no children.

Marriage 2: Stefano Casiraghi

Married Stefano in 1983, the sportsman heir to an Italian industrial fortune. The two had to marry in a civil ceremony rather than a religious ceremony because Caroline, a Catholic, was divorced. Caroline was 3 months pregnant at the time of their wedding.
They have three children:

Andrea Casiraghi (1984)

Married to Tatiana Santo Domingo and has 3 children

Charlotte Casiraghi (1986)

Married to French producer Dimitri Rassam and has two children

Pierre Casiraghi (b. 1987)

Married to Beatrice Borromeo and has 2 children

Note: The Casiraghi’s are all very beautiful and very fashionable but I don’t want to go much into them here because they are so far down the line of succession. They’re fun to follow for their fashion if you have the time to check them out.

Marriage 3: Prince Ernst August of Hanover

Married Ernst August, a Prince, in 1999. They have one daughter, Princess Alexandra.
Caroline is thus a Princess twice-over, through her family and through her husband. She and Ernst August have been separated since 2009 however are still legally married, thus she retains the title of Princess Caroline of Hanover.
Read about all of her weddings here
See her speaking in English around 12:00 here
Princess Stephanie (b. 1965)
Stephanie was in the vehicle with her mother when Grace died. She suffered a fracture of the neck.
She has studied classical dance and piano, and competed in gymnastics and horse riding. She interned at Christian Dior and debuted as a model in 1984. She has a swimwear and perfume line, and owns cafes and stores in both Monaco and Barcelona. She also has sold more than 2 million copies of her song, Ouragan, and sold 1.5M copies of her album Besoin. She recorded “In the Closet” with Michael Jackson, however is listed as “mystery girl” in the credits.
Marriages/Relationships:

Marriage 1: Daniel Ducruet

Stephanie married her former body guard, Daniel Ducruet, in 1995. When Rainier learned of their relationship Daniel was not only still his employee, but had a pregnant girlfriend too. Stephanie gave birth to their two children “out of wedlock” because Rainier refused to grant permission for them to marry, however eventually relented. The two divorced a year later after Ducruet was photographed naked with a stripper.
Read more
They have two children:

Louis (b. 1992)

Married Marie Chevallier in 2019

Pauline (b. 1994)

Relationship 2: Jean Raymond Gottlieb

Stephanie and Jean never married, however have a child together. He was Rainier’s Head of Security. She did not identify him on the birth certificate and it was not confirmed that he was Camille’s father until she confirmed it herself on her Instagram.
More about Jean

Marriage 3: Franco Knie

Stephanie met elephant trainer (yeah, you read that right) when she presented him with the award for “best animal tamer” at the Monaco Circus Festival in 1997. Franco, a decade older than Stephanie, was married with two children at the time. Franco left his family for Stephanie, moving her and her three children into his circus caravan in Zurich. Marrying in 2001, their relationship lasted 18 months until their divorce.
An interview with Stephanie in English in 1990
Why is he a Prince and not a King?
From vogue:
It goes back deep into the history of Monaco. Monaco has always been a tiny nation, and, for protection, allied itself with (or, at some points, was flat-out annexed by) big powerful countries, with big powerful rulers—aka kingdoms, or, a nation ruled by a king or queen. So Monaco’s rulers styled themselves as prince and princess. That, by definition, made the nation a principality, or one ruled by prince or princess.
Regardless, Albert actually plays a bigger role in the day to day operations of the country than most of his European peers. Legislative power is divided between the Prince who initiates the laws, and the National Council who votes on them. Executive power is retained by the Prince, and he has full judiciary powers.
Jewels
See their tiara collection
I think the Ocean Tiara, gifted to Charlene for her wedding, is particularly interesting. You either love it or you hate it.
The Grimaldi Curse
What do you think?

Ultimate Gambling Guide for GTA Online - odds, probabilities, and optimal strategies

Since the Diamond Casino update, I have seen a large number of 12-year-olds posting Blackjack memes on this sub. As a parent, this has me very worried.
On top of that, I have seen some of the most trustworthy GTA Youtubers giving flawed gambling advice, which can have damaging impact on their gullible audiences.
So that's why I decided to write this up, to educate everyone on the subject, so there will be no more misunderstandings.
(2020 Update down at the bottom.)
If you're one of those Youtubers that wants to use this information in a video, feel free to do so. The more people (especially kids) that become educated about gambling, the better.
But then also please go back and review your own work, and delete or edit the videos that are giving out the wrong advice, like where you're saying you have "a good strategy for making money with roulette", or some other nonsense that I've heard this week. Delete that please.
Before I get into the individual games, I need to discuss a few concepts first, that will make understanding the rest a lot easier.

Expected return and variance
A game like Roulette or Slots has a fixed expected return on your bets. This is a percentage that you have no way of influencing. Say you are flipping a coin against a friend, and you both put up $1. The winner gets the pot. Since the odds are even at 50%, in the long run, you will expect to break even. Your expected return is 100% of your bet.
But imagine if you would play this coin flipping game in a casino against the house. On the "house rules" listed at the table they would probably say that you would only get 95 cents back for every win, while you are forfeiting a dollar on every loss. Would you still play?
Sounds stupid to do so, but still, everybody does it. Every bet they place on Roulette, every coin they put into a Slot machine, is based on the same concept.
Those few cents they take on every bet are their profit margin, and has paid for all the Vegas lights, the Mirage volcanoes, and the Bellagio fountains. Make no mistake - casino gambling games are not designed to make you lose, because sure, you can get lucky on a single night, but they are designed to make them win. That's the beauty of it. They can both exist at the same time.
Too many people that don't see how this works, are just destined for disaster. Just because you went on a lucky streak and won 8 games out of 10, does not mean that flipping coins is a profitable game, or that choosing tails is a winning strategy. Always be aware of the house edge, your true chances of winning, and just realize that you got lucky. There is no such thing as a strategy in flipping a coin that will give you a higher expected return, so it's just pure gambling, just like Slots and Roulette.
Most casino games are made in such a way, that your expected return is a little under 100%. This means that from every dollar bet at the tables, the casino expects to keep a few cents. For individual players, results may vary. Some will win, most will lose. But for the house, it doesn't matter. They take millions of bets each day, so for them, the expected average works out a lot sooner. In short: the house always wins.
When looking at the house edge, we're talking about the expected long-term result, based on the game's house rules. But for a player, it can take literally tens of thousands of hands or spins before you also reach this average number. Until that time, you can experience huge upswings and downswings, that are the result of nothing but short-term luck, which is called variance.
Some games and some bets have a much higher variance than others, which means your actual results will differ enormously from what you're expected to be at.
Take for example betting on red/black at the Roulette table. This is a low-variance proposition, because it has a high percentage chance of occurring, and a low payout.
Contrast this with betting single numbers in Roulette, which only win once every 38 spins on average. This bet has a much higher variance, meaning you can easily hit a dry spell, and not hit anything for 200 bets in a row, or you can see a single number hit three times in five consecutive spins. This is not a freak occurrence in high-variance bets.
Even though the expected return in both these bets is exactly the same, there's a huge difference in variance, causing massive differences in short-term results, which can go both ways. You need to be aware of this, before you decide what types of bets you are comfortable with placing.

Gamblers' Fallacy
Another thing to realize, is that each individual game, hand, or spin, is completely independent from the one(s) before it, and after it.
Gamblers tend to believe, that the chance of a certain outcome is increased, based on previous results.
The most famous example comes from the Casino de Monte Carlo, where the Roulette wheel managed to land on black 26 times in a row. Gamblers lost many millions during that streak, all frantically betting on red, believing that the odds were in favor of the wheel coming out on red, after producing so many blacks. This is not true. Each round is completely independent, and the odds are exactly the same.
You will hear people say things like a Blackjack table being "hot" or "cold", which is completely superstitious, and should be ignored. The exception was when Blackjack was being dealt from a shoe. It made card counting possible. But with the introduction of shuffle machines, and continuous shuffling like is being used in GTA, this no longer exists.
This is also why "chasing your losses" is a very bad idea. After being on a losing streak for some time, many gamblers believe that now it's their turn to start winning. So they will often increase their bet size, believing that when their predicted winning streak comes around, they will win back their losses, and more.
The reality of it, more often than not, is that people will indeed start playing higher and higher limits, until they are completely broke. Nobody is ever "due for a win". There is never a guarantee that you're about to start winning. In fact, the opposite is more likely to be true. You are, after all, in a casino.

Betting systems
Some people like to think that they have a fool-proof betting system, like the Martingale system. Simply increase or even double your bet when you lose, and keep doing that until you win. In theory, this system will always win. So that's why table limits were introduced, and where the system fails.
If you start at the Roulette table, playing red/black, with a small 750 chip wager, and just double your bet every time you lose, you only have to lose 6 times in a row, before you will be betting the table limit of 48,000, just to get that 750 chip profit.
Sure, you can go on all evening without this happening, winning 750 chips each time, but this losing streak only has to happen once, and you're bust. Any betting system like this is ill-advised, because you are hugely increasing your so-called "risk of ruin", and that's what we were trying to avoid.
And even if your starting bet is only 100 chips, after only nine straight losses, and nine doubled bets, you are betting the table limit at 50,000 chips. If you lose that bet, you're 100,000 chips in the hole, with no way to recover that with your 100 chip base wager.
So don't believe anyone that says this is the perfect system to always win in the casino. Sooner or later they will understand why they were wrong, when they're asking you for a loan.

Set your limits BEFORE you start playing
One final point before we get into the games, a general tip for people that head out to play: money management.
Just like in real life, before you go to the casino, decide on a maximum amount that you are WILLING TO LOSE.
Bet small enough, so that amount can last you through the entire evening, and you will not be tempted to run to the ATM to continue playing.
Considering GTA money, some people will be comfortable losing 1% of their GTA bank balance, some people will be comfortable with gambling away 5% of their total GTA savings. It's up to you what you can handle. Decide for yourself where it will start to hurt, and don't cross that line.
But whatever number you decide on, as soon as you lost that amount, get up and walk away. Don't chase your losses, stick to your limits, and accept that this has not been your day. There is always another game tomorrow. Always agree with yourself on a simple stop-loss rule, how much you would want to lose at most, and simply stop playing when you get there.
Same goes for winning. You can decide on a number, how much profit you would like to take away from the casino. You can go on a hot streak and be up half a million in a short period of time, but if you would continue to play longer, looking for more, chances are that you're going to lose it all back.
Most people are happy with doubling their daily casino budget, for example. Others are looking for 10 bets profit in Blackjack. Whatever you choose, when you hit that number, you can stop playing and bank your profits, or you can continue playing if you're still enjoying the games, but then only just play minimum bet sizes. Then you're just playing for fun, not for money. You've already made your profit, so simply keep it in your pocket, and don't risk losing it again.
Either way, decide on what your money management strategy will be, and STICK TO IT.

Casino games in GTA Online
Now, I'm going to dive into the games that you can find at the Diamond casino, ordered from worst to best.

6) Slots
Generally the rule is this: the less strategy a game has, the worse it is for the player. And with slots, this is definitely the case.
The only influence you have, is choosing what type of machine you're going to play. Basically, there are two types of slot machines:
-high frequency, low payout slots
-low frequency, high payout slots
In the first type, there is no huge (progressive) jackpot on offer, just your average selection of prizes that don't go up to crazy amounts.
This will result in a player having many more spins resulting in a win. The amounts that you win on the bigger prizes, will be smaller, but they do come around more often. This type of slot machine has a lower variance, which means that your money should last you longer, winning many smaller prizes along the way to keep you going.
The second type of slot machine lures you in with the temptation of a huge jackpot prize. Even though the long-term expected return on these machines is the same as the previous type, the prize distribution is hugely different. The large jackpot prize weighs heavily on the scale of expected return, but the chance of it hitting is extremely small. This results in a much higher variance on this type of machine. Usually your money will go down very fast, because the smaller prizes are less rewarding than on the other type of machine.
At the Diamond, the info screen says the player return at slots is set at 98.7%. This means that, on average, for every maximum bet of 2,500 chips, you expect to lose 32.5 chips.
This might not seem like a lot, but the danger of slots is that the game is extremely fast. You can spin about once every 6 seconds, which would result in an expected LOSS of about 20,000 chips per hour of playing.
But again, in this long-term expected number, the large jackpot awards are also factored in, and as long as you don't hit those big prizes, you'll see your money go down a lot faster.
In any case, thank heavens the max bet is only set at 2,500, or else we would see more players go bankrupt at alarming rates.
Optimal strategy for slots:
There is none. Because after betting, you have no more influence over the outcome. The only choices you have, is what type of machine you want to play at, and how much money you are going to risk. And those are all personal preference. As long as you stick to your loss limits, as discussed above, there's no harm in having a go every once in a while, hoping to get a lucky hit. Just realize that you don't have a high chance of scoring a big win, so as soon as you do, get up and walk away.

5) Roulette
Roulette is also a game where you have no influence over the outcome. There is zero skill involved. You place your bet, and that's it.
In traditional French roulette, a table has only the single-zero, but of course, for American casinos that wasn't enough of a house edge, so they simply doubled their profits by adding a second zero. The house edge was increased from 1/37 to 1/19, which is huge.
This makes playing on a double-zero roulette table by definition a sucker's play.
The payouts scale evenly, which means that a bet on a single number, and a bet on half of the numbers, and everything in between, yields the same expected return. The only difference, again, being the variance that you are willing to subject yourself to.
The player return for double-zero Roulette for all bets is 94.74%.
Except for the 5-number bet, which can only be made by placing a bet on the two top rows that contain 0, 00, 1, 2 and 3. The expected return on this bet is lower: 92.1%. This is because it only pays out 6-1. Why? Well, the number 36 isn't divisible by 5, so the greedy people that came up with double-zero Roulette had to round it off someway, and as expected, it wasn't going to be in the players' favor.Just remember that that 5-number bet is the worst bet at the table, and should be avoided. All other possible bets have the same expected return.
So it really doesn't matter how you spread your bets, if you bet only one chip, or if you litter the entire table with a bucketload of chips. Each chip you put out there, has the same expected return, so there is no strategy that will improve your long-term results.
Assuming that you're betting the maximum table amount of 50,000 chips, you will be looking at an expected loss of about 2,630 chips per spin. Considering that a round takes about 45 seconds to complete, your expected LOSS at the GTA Roulette tables will be around 200,000 chips per hour of playing.
Optimal strategy for double-zero roulette:
Stay away. Stay far away.

4) Three Card Poker
With Three Card Poker, we come across the first game where there is actually some strategy involved. You get to look at your cards, and then decide if you want to fold, and surrender your ante, or double your bet.
Additionally, you can choose to place a side bet on "Pair Plus", which offers progressive payouts.
There are some websites out there that ran all the numbers with computer simulations, and even though I would like to quote the source here, these websites are understandably littered to the max with online casino ads, so that's why I have decided against doing that.
Optimal strategy for Three Card Poker:
For this game you only have to remember one strategy rule: Always bet on any high card queen-six-four or better, and fold any high card queen-six-three or lower. That's it. Just don't forget to double check if you're not folding a straight or a flush, and you'll be fine.
This strategy will result in an expected return of 96.63%.
The Pair Plus sidebet, with the payout table that is used at the Diamond casino, gives you an expected return of 97.68%, which is actually a bit better than the main ante bet.
So by playing both wagers, you're reducing your expected losses per bet, but since you're betting more, you're also increasing your expected loss per hour.
My advice would obviously be to not play this game at all, but if you do, put as much of your bet as possible on the Pair Plus, while making our Ante bet as small as you can.
To be able to compare it to the other games at the Diamond, let's stay on that 50,000 maximum wager, meaning making your ante bet 35,000, and your pair plus bet 15,000, if the table would allow it.
This results in an expected loss of about 1,525 chips per hand, and with a round taking about 45 seconds, this adds up to an expected LOSS of around 120,000 chips per hour of playing. In comparison, if you would only play the ante bet for 50,000 per hand, you expect to lose 1,685 chips per hand, which means an expected LOSS of about 135,000 chips per hour. So the more out of that 50,000 wager you can put on the "Pair Plus" sidebet, the better.
Even though it may be fun to try out this game for a bit, since there's only one simple strategy rule to follow, you'll soon find yourself robotically grinding down your bankroll until it has vaporized. You're not missing out on anything if you skip these tables, there is no real challenge.
Just like with Roulette and Slots, if you want to try it out nonetheless, you can just bet the minimum amounts and only play for fun, so it won't matter if you win or lose.

3) Blackjack
Blackjack is the most complicated game by far. Simply because the player has to make a series of decisions, which will largely decide the outcome. Luckily, there is such a thing as an optimal strategy, which will be outlined below.
However, the strategy is also dependent on the house rules. These not only affect your expected return, but in some places also your decisions.
Here are the house rules at the Diamond casino:
-The game uses 4 standard decks, and a continuous shuffle.
-Blackjack pays 3 to 2, dealer checks for early blackjack.
-No insurance offered, no surrender.
-Dealer stands on soft 17.
-Double down on any two cards.
-Player can split only once, but doubling after split is allowed.
-Seven-Card Charlie.
Under these rules, and following the "basic strategy" chart, your expected return at Blackjack is a shade under 99.6%, which is extremely good for a casino game, that's why Blackjack should be your table game of choice.
But it comes at a price: you are going to have to memorize the relatively complicated strategy chart, or at least stick it to your monitor until you have it in your head. But in case you ever stumble into a real-life casino, you won't regret having this table memorized, so I would definitely advise you to work on that.
The strategy chart might look complicated at first, but you will be able to notice certain patterns. Your decisions are mainly based on the dealer's upcard, which is basically divided into a weak card (2 to 6), and a strong card (7 to ace).
When a dealer shows a strong card, you will be hitting more often with the risk of going bust, but when a dealer shows a weak card, you're not taking that risk, and you will be standing more, but also doubling and splitting more. You want to increase your bets when the odds are in your favor, and get out cheap when they're not.
But it also helps to take some time to think about why a certain advice is given. For example, why does it say that you always have to split two eights, even against an ace. Well, that's because two eights equals 16, which is the worst total you can have. It's better to split them up, and give yourself a chance of finding a 17, 18 or 19 with the next card. Once you see the logic in that, you'll have one less thing to memorize.
The playing advice in the basic strategy chart is a result of computer simulations that ran all possible outcomes against each other, and produced the most profitable decision for each situation. So you can't go wrong following it.
Optimal strategy for Blackjack with Seven-Card Charlie
The added house rule of Seven-Card Charlie, adds a small advantage for the player, and it does influence a few strategy decisions. For example, you might have a 14 with 6 cards, against the dealer's 5 upcard.
Normally this would be an automatic stand, but if you're only one card away from the Seven-Card Charlie, meaning an instant win for the player, regardless of the dealer's hand, it turns it into a hit.
Here's the most optimal strategy chart to follow for the Diamond Casino house rules: https://prnt.sc/olct6g
You'll see that two fives are missing from the chart, and that's because you never split them. You treat them as a regular 10. You also never split tens. Just stand on 20.
If you follow this strategy religiously, even with a maximum wager of 50,000 chips, you only expect to lose about 215 chips per hand, and with rounds taking about 30 seconds, that amounts to an expected LOSS of 26,000 chips per hour, which is only half a bet. A small price to pay for an hour of entertainment.
But since the expected return is so extremely close to 100%, you will see more positive short-term results than with other games. But obviously it can also swing the other way. Again, this is supposed to be the game where your money lasts you the longest, but always set your loss and win limits before you sit down. That rule simply always applies.

Still, even with optimal strategies applied, all these games are expected to lose you money in the long run. So betting any kind of large amounts is not advised. If you simply want to enjoy playing these games, there's nothing wrong with betting a minimal amount. Playing these games for a longer period of time will already cost you money anyway, since your daily property fees will still be charged while you're playing in the GTA casino. As long as you can play for fun, there's nothing wrong, but when you see yourself betting insane chunks of your entire bank balance to try to recoup some unfortunate losses, you're doing it wrong.
As the commercials in Britain all correctly say: when the fun stops, stop.

2) Virtual Horse Racing
Now onto the good stuff. I ran some numbers, and I believe Rockstar has made a mistake with the horse racing game. Because as it stands, and if I read the numbers correctly, this game is actually profitable for the player. You can actually make money with this, at least, until Rockstar figures out their mistake and patches it.
If anyone wants to jump into the math and double check this to make sure, please do so. I will add any corrections to this post. This is one of those "to good to be true" things, so I keep thinking that I might have overlooked something. So please verify it if you can.
The setup is this. There is a pool of 100 horses, each with their own attached payout. These are divided into 3 groups, ranked by their odds. From each group, 2 horses are randomly selected to provide a pool of six runners for you to bet on.
Now it's not an actual race you're looking at. You are looking at a raffle. This is important to realize.
Each horse gets awarded a certain number of raffle tickets. The favorites get awarded more tickets than the underdogs, and therefore, have a higher chance of winning.
If this distribution works like it does in the real-life casinos, then the raffle tickets are awarded according to the betting odds.
Example 1: imagine a race with 3 runners, all have 2/1 odds, representing a 33.3% chance of winning. (Because 2/1 means 2 AGAINST 1, so 3 total.) In this case, each horse gets one third of the raffle tickets, giving them an equal chance to win.
Example 2: imagine a race with 3 runners, one has 1/1 odds (or EVENS), representing a 50% chance of winning, and the other two horses are marked up as 3/1, with a 25% chance of winning. The favorite gets half the tickets, the other two get a quarter of the tickets each.
A ticket is drawn, and you'll have a winner.
It doesn't matter in this game which horse you bet on, because the expected return is always the same: 100% or break-even, for the above examples.
Now, what happens if the percentages don't exactly add up to 100%?
They must add up to 100%, because there will always be a winner. And only one winner.
So when this is the case, the actual winning chances of the horses are adjusted to meet the 100% requirement, using their payout odds to determine the scale.
So, if the represented percentages add up to more than 100%, the actual winning chances of the runners will be DECREASED, resulting in all bets becoming losing propositions for the players.
Example: In a 6-horse race, all runners are listed at 4/1, representing a 20% chance. Only with six runners that amounts to 120%. So all chances are scaled down by 1/6th, to end up at 100%.
This means your horse's chances are reduced from 20% to 16.67%, turning it into a losing bet: 5 times you will lose your bet, and 1 time you will win, but only get 4 bets back in this instance, instead of 5. A losing bet in the long run.
This is the type of odds that you find in regular casinos, with fields as large as 15 runners to bet on, where the assumed winning chances always add up to more than 100%, therefore are decreased for all runners, resulting in a house edge.

But in GTA Online's Inside Track, there are other scenarios, because of the small field, and the way that they are put together.
In some cases, the represented percentages when added up, are LESS than 100%, meaning that the actual winning chances of all runners, are INCREASED.
This creates profitable bets for the players, because in the long run, you're expecting to win more money than you lose. This is a gambler's dream, pure and simple.
So, according to the in-game information, the three groups of horses are divided as follows:
-Favorites: EVENS to 5-1
-Outsiders: 6-1 to 15-1
-Underdogs: 16-1 to 30-1

Let's take the two most extreme examples to show what's happening.
The worst possible field to bet on: two runners at EVENS, two runners at 6-1, and two runners at 16-1.
EVENS represents a 50% chance, 6-1 is 14.29%, and 16-1 is 5.88%. Add those up and you land on a total of 140.34%.
This means that the actual winning chances of the horses are decreased by 28.75% (to get that 140% down to 100%), which makes betting on this field extremely unwise.
A horse at EVENS will only come in as a winner 35.63% of the time, instead of 50%,
a horse at 6-1 will only win 10.18% of the time,
and an underdog at 16-1 will only win 4.19% of the time.

The expected return on a bet on any of the horses in this field is only 71.26%, so a maximum bet of 10,000 chips on any of these horses holds an expected LOSS of 2,875 chips.
These returns are the same, because the winning chances are scaled equally, according to the payout numbers. So it really doesn't matter which horse you bet on, in the long run, you expect the same results.
But as explained before, it does influence variance, and therefore your short-term result, which can swing both ways.

But now, the best possible field to bet on: two runners at 5-1, two runners at 15-1, and two runners at 30-1.
Odds at 5-1 represents a winning chance of 16.67%, 15-1 odds means 6.25% chance, and 30-1 odds means a 3.23% chance of winning. Add these six horses together, and you only get 52.285%.
This means that, to get from 52% to 100%, the actual winning chances of these horses will be almost doubled! Multiplied by 1.91 to be exact.
So the 5-1 favorites will now win 31.88% of the time, instead of 16.67%,
the 15-1 runners will win 11.95% of the time,
and the underdogs at 30-1 odds will still win 6.17% of the time.
When betting on this field, the expected return on your bet is 191.25%!
This means that a max bet of 10,000 chips will result in an expected PROFIT of 9,125 chips.
This is printing money, if there ever was such a thing.
Optimal strategy for Virtual Horse racing
So all you have to do, is only bet high on the games where you have an expected positive return, and bet the absolute minimum on the games where your expected return is negative. Or back out of the racing game to refresh the field.
If you don't have a way to quickly add up all the percentages, and until somebody shows up here with a neatly formatted table, just use a few general rules of thumb:
-Always bet the maximum on a race with favorites at 2/1 and 3/1 or higher in it.
-Simply skip all races with two favorites at EVENS in it, and at EVENS and 2/1. Or bet the minimum, if you can't skip or refresh the field.
-To decide if you should play races with other favorite combinations EVENS and 3/1, EVENS and 4/1, EVENS and 5/1, or two favorites at 2/1, the payouts on the other four runners determine whether or not it's profitable to play them. The results of betting on these fields vary from an expected 1,330 chip loss (worst-case) to an expected 1,680 chip win (best-case), with a max bet of 10,000 chips.
But if you're not looking for another strategy chart, you might just want to skip these borderline cases, and just cherry pick the best ones, which are easy to recognize, and with which you can never go wrong.
It's difficult to put a number on an expected win-rate, because it all depends on which fields you get presented with, but it's not unreasonable to state that you can maintain a steady win-rate of around 200,000 chips per hour, with about 50 seconds per race.
Remember, you're not trying to win every race. You're trying to win the most money per hour. So don't sweat it when you bet on a 4/1 favorite, and lose a couple of races in a row. It will still be more profitable in the long run. You have the math on your side.
To reduce negative variance, always bet on the favorite, when betting on profitable fields. We're not gambling anymore, we're grinding out a steady profit. We want to keep the swings to a minimum.
I contacted Rockstar support to verify if this is indeed how it works, but the only reply I got after 6 weeks is that they were "looking into it".
User u/Garsant made a useful Excel-worksheet, available for you to download, where you can quickly type in the payouts on the horses, to see if it produces a profitable bet or not. You can find it in his post here: https://www.reddit.com/gtaonline/comments/ekp8na/gta_online_inside_track_odd_calculato

1) Wheel of Fortune
The number one profitable casino game in GTA Online is obviously the Wheel of Fortune, because it costs you nothing to play.
Unfortunately, you only get one free spin per day, but it holds great value, so make sure you do it.
With a chance to win a super car, vehicle discounts, expensive mystery prizes (which also can be vehicles), and a lot of cash and chips, the expected return on a single spin is around $100,000 in value.
So don't forget your daily spin, it's definitely worth your time.

2020 Update:
As of the Diamond Casino Heist update, the Inside Track horse racing is confirmed to still be as profitable as outlined above.The only thing that seems to be changed, is that you can't refresh the field anymore by backing out of the screen. This does affect your hourly rate in a negative way, but does not change the fact that this game has a huge positive expected return, and should be your go-to when you're trying to take money from the house, without having Lester's nagging voice in your ear. That should also be worth something.

And with that, I conclude my 5,000 word essay on gambling in GTA. Questions, comments, feel free to add your input to this guide.

Cliffs:
-Gambling games should only be played for fun, not for big money. You should expect to lose in the long run. The house always wins.
-A casino game doesn't have a memory, and betting systems don't work.
-Set your limits before you start, how much you are willing to lose or win, and then walk away when you get there.
-Don't play slots, roulette, or three card poker.
-Only play blackjack following a basic strategy chart (https://prnt.sc/olct6g).
-Inside Track betting can be played profitably, if you only bet on fields WITHOUT a heavy favorite.
-Wheel of Fortune is always your best bet, because it's a free bet.

Ultimate Gambling Guide for GTA Online - odds, probabilities, and optimal strategies

This is not mine, the creator of this is u/enderpiet

Since the Diamond Casino update, I have seen a large number of 12-year-olds posting Blackjack memes on this sub. As a parent, this has me very worried.
On top of that, I have seen some of the most trustworthy GTA Youtubers giving flawed gambling advice, which can have damaging impact on their gullible audiences.
So that's why I decided to write this up, to educate everyone on the subject, so there will be no more misunderstandings.
(2020 Update down at the bottom.)
If you're one of those Youtubers that wants to use this information in a video, feel free to do so. The more people (especially kids) that become educated about gambling, the better.
But then also please go back and review your own work, and delete or edit the videos that are giving out the wrong advice, like where you're saying you have "a good strategy for making money with roulette", or some other nonsense that I've heard this week. Delete that please.
Before I get into the individual games, I need to discuss a few concepts first, that will make understanding the rest a lot easier.
Expected return and variance
A game like Roulette or Slots has a fixed expected return on your bets. This is a percentage that you have no way of influencing. Say you are flipping a coin against a friend, and you both put up $1. The winner gets the pot. Since the odds are even at 50%, in the long run, you will expect to break even. Your expected return is 100% of your bet.
But imagine if you would play this coin flipping game in a casino against the house. On the "house rules" listed at the table they would probably say that you would only get 95 cents back for every win, while you are forfeiting a dollar on every loss. Would you still play?
Sounds stupid to do so, but still, everybody does it. Every bet they place on Roulette, every coin they put into a Slot machine, is based on the same concept.
Those few cents they take on every bet are their profit margin, and has paid for all the Vegas lights, the Mirage volcanoes, and the Bellagio fountains. Make no mistake - casino gambling games are not designed to make you lose, because sure, you can get lucky on a single night, but they are designed to make them win. That's the beauty of it. They can both exist at the same time.
Too many people that don't see how this works, are just destined for disaster. Just because you went on a lucky streak and won 8 games out of 10, does not mean that flipping coins is a profitable game, or that choosing tails is a winning strategy. Always be aware of the house edge, your true chances of winning, and just realize that you got lucky. There is no such thing as a strategy in flipping a coin that will give you a higher expected return, so it's just pure gambling, just like Slots and Roulette.
Most casino games are made in such a way, that your expected return is a little under 100%. This means that from every dollar bet at the tables, the casino expects to keep a few cents. For individual players, results may vary. Some will win, most will lose. But for the house, it doesn't matter. They take millions of bets each day, so for them, the expected average works out a lot sooner. In short: the house always wins.
When looking at the house edge, we're talking about the expected long-term result, based on the game's house rules. But for a player, it can take literally tens of thousands of hands or spins before you also reach this average number. Until that time, you can experience huge upswings and downswings, that are the result of nothing but short-term luck, which is called variance.
Some games and some bets have a much higher variance than others, which means your actual results will differ enormously from what you're expected to be at.
Take for example betting on red/black at the Roulette table. This is a low-variance proposition, because it has a high percentage chance of occurring, and a low payout.
Contrast this with betting single numbers in Roulette, which only win once every 38 spins on average. This bet has a much higher variance, meaning you can easily hit a dry spell, and not hit anything for 200 bets in a row, or you can see a single number hit three times in five consecutive spins. This is not a freak occurrence in high-variance bets.
Even though the expected return in both these bets is exactly the same, there's a huge difference in variance, causing massive differences in short-term results, which can go both ways. You need to be aware of this, before you decide what types of bets you are comfortable with placing.
Gamblers' Fallacy
Another thing to realize, is that each individual game, hand, or spin, is completely independent from the one(s) before it, and after it.
Gamblers tend to believe, that the chance of a certain outcome is increased, based on previous results.
The most famous example comes from the Casino de Monte Carlo, where the Roulette wheel managed to land on black 26 times in a row. Gamblers lost many millions during that streak, all frantically betting on red, believing that the odds were in favor of the wheel coming out on red, after producing so many blacks. This is not true. Each round is completely independent, and the odds are exactly the same.
You will hear people say things like a Blackjack table being "hot" or "cold", which is completely superstitious, and should be ignored. The exception was when Blackjack was being dealt from a shoe. It made card counting possible. But with the introduction of shuffle machines, and continuous shuffling like is being used in GTA, this no longer exists.
This is also why "chasing your losses" is a very bad idea. After being on a losing streak for some time, many gamblers believe that now it's their turn to start winning. So they will often increase their bet size, believing that when their predicted winning streak comes around, they will win back their losses, and more.
The reality of it, more often than not, is that people will indeed start playing higher and higher limits, until they are completely broke. Nobody is ever "due for a win". There is never a guarantee that you're about to start winning. In fact, the opposite is more likely to be true. You are, after all, in a casino.
Betting systems
Some people like to think that they have a fool-proof betting system, like the Martingale system. Simply increase or even double your bet when you lose, and keep doing that until you win. In theory, this system will always win. So that's why table limits were introduced, and where the system fails.
If you start at the Roulette table, playing red/black, with a small 750 chip wager, and just double your bet every time you lose, you only have to lose 6 times in a row, before you will be betting the table limit of 48,000, just to get that 750 chip profit.
Sure, you can go on all evening without this happening, winning 750 chips each time, but this losing streak only has to happen once, and you're bust. Any betting system like this is ill-advised, because you are hugely increasing your so-called "risk of ruin", and that's what we were trying to avoid.
And even if your starting bet is only 100 chips, after only nine straight losses, and nine doubled bets, you are betting the table limit at 50,000 chips. If you lose that bet, you're 100,000 chips in the hole, with no way to recover that with your 100 chip base wager.
So don't believe anyone that says this is the perfect system to always win in the casino. Sooner or later they will understand why they were wrong, when they're asking you for a loan.
Set your limits BEFORE you start playing
One final point before we get into the games, a general tip for people that head out to play: money management.
Just like in real life, before you go to the casino, decide on a maximum amount that you are WILLING TO LOSE.
Bet small enough, so that amount can last you through the entire evening, and you will not be tempted to run to the ATM to continue playing.
Considering GTA money, some people will be comfortable losing 1% of their GTA bank balance, some people will be comfortable with gambling away 5% of their total GTA savings. It's up to you what you can handle. Decide for yourself where it will start to hurt, and don't cross that line.
But whatever number you decide on, as soon as you lost that amount, get up and walk away. Don't chase your losses, stick to your limits, and accept that this has not been your day. There is always another game tomorrow. Always agree with yourself on a simple stop-loss rule, how much you would want to lose at most, and simply stop playing when you get there.
Same goes for winning. You can decide on a number, how much profit you would like to take away from the casino. You can go on a hot streak and be up half a million in a short period of time, but if you would continue to play longer, looking for more, chances are that you're going to lose it all back.
Most people are happy with doubling their daily casino budget, for example. Others are looking for 10 bets profit in Blackjack. Whatever you choose, when you hit that number, you can stop playing and bank your profits, or you can continue playing if you're still enjoying the games, but then only just play minimum bet sizes. Then you're just playing for fun, not for money. You've already made your profit, so simply keep it in your pocket, and don't risk losing it again.
Either way, decide on what your money management strategy will be, and STICK TO IT.
Casino games in GTA Online
Now, I'm going to dive into the games that you can find at the Diamond casino, ordered from worst to best.
6) Slots
Generally the rule is this: the less strategy a game has, the worse it is for the player. And with slots, this is definitely the case.
The only influence you have, is choosing what type of machine you're going to play. Basically, there are two types of slot machines:
-high frequency, low payout slots
-low frequency, high payout slots
In the first type, there is no huge (progressive) jackpot on offer, just your average selection of prizes that don't go up to crazy amounts.
This will result in a player having many more spins resulting in a win. The amounts that you win on the bigger prizes, will be smaller, but they do come around more often. This type of slot machine has a lower variance, which means that your money should last you longer, winning many smaller prizes along the way to keep you going.
The second type of slot machine lures you in with the temptation of a huge jackpot prize. Even though the long-term expected return on these machines is the same as the previous type, the prize distribution is hugely different. The large jackpot prize weighs heavily on the scale of expected return, but the chance of it hitting is extremely small. This results in a much higher variance on this type of machine. Usually your money will go down very fast, because the smaller prizes are less rewarding than on the other type of machine.
At the Diamond, the info screen says the player return at slots is set at 98.7%. This means that, on average, for every maximum bet of 2,500 chips, you expect to lose 32.5 chips.
This might not seem like a lot, but the danger of slots is that the game is extremely fast. You can spin about once every 6 seconds, which would result in an expected LOSS of about 20,000 chips per hour of playing.
But again, in this long-term expected number, the large jackpot awards are also factored in, and as long as you don't hit those big prizes, you'll see your money go down a lot faster.
In any case, thank heavens the max bet is only set at 2,500, or else we would see more players go bankrupt at alarming rates.
Optimal strategy for slots:
There is none. Because after betting, you have no more influence over the outcome. The only choices you have, is what type of machine you want to play at, and how much money you are going to risk. And those are all personal preference. As long as you stick to your loss limits, as discussed above, there's no harm in having a go every once in a while, hoping to get a lucky hit. Just realize that you don't have a high chance of scoring a big win, so as soon as you do, get up and walk away.
5) Roulette
Roulette is also a game where you have no influence over the outcome. There is zero skill involved. You place your bet, and that's it.
In traditional French roulette, a table has only the single-zero, but of course, for American casinos that wasn't enough of a house edge, so they simply doubled their profits by adding a second zero. The house edge was increased from 1/37 to 1/19, which is huge.
This makes playing on a double-zero roulette table by definition a sucker's play.
The payouts scale evenly, which means that a bet on a single number, and a bet on half of the numbers, and everything in between, yields the same expected return. The only difference, again, being the variance that you are willing to subject yourself to.
The player return for double-zero Roulette for all bets is 94.74%.
Except for the 5-number bet, which can only be made by placing a bet on the two top rows that contain 0, 00, 1, 2 and 3. The expected return on this bet is lower: 92.1%. This is because it only pays out 6-1. Why? Well, the number 36 isn't divisible by 5, so the greedy people that came up with double-zero Roulette had to round it off someway, and as expected, it wasn't going to be in the players' favor.Just remember that that 5-number bet is the worst bet at the table, and should be avoided. All other possible bets have the same expected return.
So it really doesn't matter how you spread your bets, if you bet only one chip, or if you litter the entire table with a bucketload of chips. Each chip you put out there, has the same expected return, so there is no strategy that will improve your long-term results.
Assuming that you're betting the maximum table amount of 50,000 chips, you will be looking at an expected loss of about 2,630 chips per spin. Considering that a round takes about 45 seconds to complete, your expected LOSS at the GTA Roulette tables will be around 200,000 chips per hour of playing.
Optimal strategy for double-zero roulette:
Stay away. Stay far away.
4) Three Card Poker
With Three Card Poker, we come across the first game where there is actually some strategy involved. You get to look at your cards, and then decide if you want to fold, and surrender your ante, or double your bet.
Additionally, you can choose to place a side bet on "Pair Plus", which offers progressive payouts.
There are some websites out there that ran all the numbers with computer simulations, and even though I would like to quote the source here, these websites are understandably littered to the max with online casino ads, so that's why I have decided against doing that.
Optimal strategy for Three Card Poker:
For this game you only have to remember one strategy rule: Always bet on any high card queen-six-four or better, and fold any high card queen-six-three or lower. That's it. Just don't forget to double check if you're not folding a straight or a flush, and you'll be fine.
This strategy will result in an expected return of 96.63%.
The Pair Plus sidebet, with the payout table that is used at the Diamond casino, gives you an expected return of 97.68%, which is actually a bit better than the main ante bet.
So by playing both wagers, you're reducing your expected losses per bet, but since you're betting more, you're also increasing your expected loss per hour.
My advice would obviously be to not play this game at all, but if you do, put as much of your bet as possible on the Pair Plus, while making our Ante bet as small as you can.
To be able to compare it to the other games at the Diamond, let's stay on that 50,000 maximum wager, meaning making your ante bet 35,000, and your pair plus bet 15,000, if the table would allow it.
This results in an expected loss of about 1,525 chips per hand, and with a round taking about 45 seconds, this adds up to an expected LOSS of around 120,000 chips per hour of playing. In comparison, if you would only play the ante bet for 50,000 per hand, you expect to lose 1,685 chips per hand, which means an expected LOSS of about 135,000 chips per hour. So the more out of that 50,000 wager you can put on the "Pair Plus" sidebet, the better.
Even though it may be fun to try out this game for a bit, since there's only one simple strategy rule to follow, you'll soon find yourself robotically grinding down your bankroll until it has vaporized. You're not missing out on anything if you skip these tables, there is no real challenge.
Just like with Roulette and Slots, if you want to try it out nonetheless, you can just bet the minimum amounts and only play for fun, so it won't matter if you win or lose.
3) Blackjack
Blackjack is the most complicated game by far. Simply because the player has to make a series of decisions, which will largely decide the outcome. Luckily, there is such a thing as an optimal strategy, which will be outlined below.
However, the strategy is also dependent on the house rules. These not only affect your expected return, but in some places also your decisions.
Here are the house rules at the Diamond casino:
-The game uses 4 standard decks, and a continuous shuffle.
-Blackjack pays 3 to 2, dealer checks for early blackjack.
-No insurance offered, no surrender.
-Dealer stands on soft 17.
-Double down on any two cards.
-Player can split only once, but doubling after split is allowed.
-Seven-Card Charlie.
Under these rules, and following the "basic strategy" chart, your expected return at Blackjack is a shade under 99.6%, which is extremely good for a casino game, that's why Blackjack should be your table game of choice.
But it comes at a price: you are going to have to memorize the relatively complicated strategy chart, or at least stick it to your monitor until you have it in your head. But in case you ever stumble into a real-life casino, you won't regret having this table memorized, so I would definitely advise you to work on that.
The strategy chart might look complicated at first, but you will be able to notice certain patterns. Your decisions are mainly based on the dealer's upcard, which is basically divided into a weak card (2 to 6), and a strong card (7 to ace).
When a dealer shows a strong card, you will be hitting more often with the risk of going bust, but when a dealer shows a weak card, you're not taking that risk, and you will be standing more, but also doubling and splitting more. You want to increase your bets when the odds are in your favor, and get out cheap when they're not.
But it also helps to take some time to think about why a certain advice is given. For example, why does it say that you always have to split two eights, even against an ace. Well, that's because two eights equals 16, which is the worst total you can have. It's better to split them up, and give yourself a chance of finding a 17, 18 or 19 with the next card. Once you see the logic in that, you'll have one less thing to memorize.
The playing advice in the basic strategy chart is a result of computer simulations that ran all possible outcomes against each other, and produced the most profitable decision for each situation. So you can't go wrong following it.
Optimal strategy for Blackjack with Seven-Card Charlie
The added house rule of Seven-Card Charlie, adds a small advantage for the player, and it does influence a few strategy decisions. For example, you might have a 14 with 6 cards, against the dealer's 5 upcard.
Normally this would be an automatic stand, but if you're only one card away from the Seven-Card Charlie, meaning an instant win for the player, regardless of the dealer's hand, it turns it into a hit.
Here's the most optimal strategy chart to follow for the Diamond Casino house rules:https://prnt.sc/olct6g
You'll see that two fives are missing from the chart, and that's because you never split them. You treat them as a regular 10. You also never split tens. Just stand on 20.
If you follow this strategy religiously, even with a maximum wager of 50,000 chips, you only expect to lose about 215 chips per hand, and with rounds taking about 30 seconds, that amounts to an expected LOSS of 26,000 chips per hour, which is only half a bet. A small price to pay for an hour of entertainment.
But since the expected return is so extremely close to 100%, you will see more positive short-term results than with other games. But obviously it can also swing the other way. Again, this is supposed to be the game where your money lasts you the longest, but always set your loss and win limits before you sit down. That rule simply always applies.
Still, even with optimal strategies applied, all these games are expected to lose you money in the long run. So betting any kind of large amounts is not advised. If you simply want to enjoy playing these games, there's nothing wrong with betting a minimal amount. Playing these games for a longer period of time will already cost you money anyway, since your daily property fees will still be charged while you're playing in the GTA casino. As long as you can play for fun, there's nothing wrong, but when you see yourself betting insane chunks of your entire bank balance to try to recoup some unfortunate losses, you're doing it wrong.
As the commercials in Britain all correctly say: when the fun stops, stop.
2) Virtual Horse Racing
Now onto the good stuff. I ran some numbers, and I believe Rockstar has made a mistake with the horse racing game. Because as it stands, and if I read the numbers correctly, this game is actually profitable for the player. You can actually make money with this, at least, until Rockstar figures out their mistake and patches it.
If anyone wants to jump into the math and double check this to make sure, please do so. I will add any corrections to this post. This is one of those "to good to be true" things, so I keep thinking that I might have overlooked something. So please verify it if you can.
The setup is this. There is a pool of 100 horses, each with their own attached payout. These are divided into 3 groups, ranked by their odds. From each group, 2 horses are randomly selected to provide a pool of six runners for you to bet on.
Now it's not an actual race you're looking at. You are looking at a raffle. This is important to realize.
Each horse gets awarded a certain number of raffle tickets. The favorites get awarded more tickets than the underdogs, and therefore, have a higher chance of winning.
If this distribution works like it does in the real-life casinos, then the raffle tickets are awarded according to the betting odds.
Example 1: imagine a race with 3 runners, all have 2/1 odds, representing a 33.3% chance of winning. (Because 2/1 means 2 AGAINST 1, so 3 total.) In this case, each horse gets one third of the raffle tickets, giving them an equal chance to win.
Example 2: imagine a race with 3 runners, one has 1/1 odds (or EVENS), representing a 50% chance of winning, and the other two horses are marked up as 3/1, with a 25% chance of winning. The favorite gets half the tickets, the other two get a quarter of the tickets each.
A ticket is drawn, and you'll have a winner.
It doesn't matter in this game which horse you bet on, because the expected return is always the same: 100% or break-even, for the above examples.
Now, what happens if the percentages don't exactly add up to 100%?
They must add up to 100%, because there will always be a winner. And only one winner.
So when this is the case, the actual winning chances of the horses are adjusted to meet the 100% requirement, using their payout odds to determine the scale.
So, if the represented percentages add up to more than 100%, the actual winning chances of the runners will be DECREASED, resulting in all bets becoming losing propositions for the players.
Example: In a 6-horse race, all runners are listed at 4/1, representing a 20% chance. Only with six runners that amounts to 120%. So all chances are scaled down by 1/6th, to end up at 100%.
This means your horse's chances are reduced from 20% to 16.67%, turning it into a losing bet: 5 times you will lose your bet, and 1 time you will win, but only get 4 bets back in this instance, instead of 5. A losing bet in the long run.
This is the type of odds that you find in regular casinos, with fields as large as 15 runners to bet on, where the assumed winning chances always add up to more than 100%, therefore are decreased for all runners, resulting in a house edge.
But in GTA Online's Inside Track, there are other scenarios, because of the small field, and the way that they are put together.
In some cases, the represented percentages when added up, are LESS than 100%, meaning that the actual winning chances of all runners, are INCREASED.
This creates profitable bets for the players, because in the long run, you're expecting to win more money than you lose. This is a gambler's dream, pure and simple.
So, according to the in-game information, the three groups of horses are divided as follows:
-Favorites: EVENS to 5-1
-Outsiders: 6-1 to 15-1
-Underdogs: 16-1 to 30-1
Let's take the two most extreme examples to show what's happening.
The worst possible field to bet on: two runners at EVENS, two runners at 6-1, and two runners at 16-1.
EVENS represents a 50% chance, 6-1 is 14.29%, and 16-1 is 5.88%. Add those up and you land on a total of 140.34%.
This means that the actual winning chances of the horses are decreased by 28.75% (to get that 140% down to 100%), which makes betting on this field extremely unwise.
A horse at EVENS will only come in as a winner 35.63% of the time, instead of 50%,
a horse at 6-1 will only win 10.18% of the time,
and an underdog at 16-1 will only win 4.19% of the time.
The expected return on a bet on any of the horses in this field is only 71.26%, so a maximum bet of 10,000 chips on any of these horses holds an expected LOSS of 2,875 chips.
These returns are the same, because the winning chances are scaled equally, according to the payout numbers. So it really doesn't matter which horse you bet on, in the long run, you expect the same results.
But as explained before, it does influence variance, and therefore your short-term result, which can swing both ways.
But now, the best possible field to bet on: two runners at 5-1, two runners at 15-1, and two runners at 30-1.
Odds at 5-1 represents a winning chance of 16.67%, 15-1 odds means 6.25% chance, and 30-1 odds means a 3.23% chance of winning. Add these six horses together, and you only get 52.285%.
This means that, to get from 52% to 100%, the actual winning chances of these horses will be almost doubled! Multiplied by 1.91 to be exact.
So the 5-1 favorites will now win 31.88% of the time, instead of 16.67%,
the 15-1 runners will win 11.95% of the time,
and the underdogs at 30-1 odds will still win 6.17% of the time.
When betting on this field, the expected return on your bet is 191.25%!
This means that a max bet of 10,000 chips will result in an expected PROFIT of 9,125 chips.
This is printing money, if there ever was such a thing.
Optimal strategy for Virtual Horse racing
So all you have to do, is only bet high on the games where you have an expected positive return, and bet the absolute minimum on the games where your expected return is negative. Or back out of the racing game to refresh the field.
If you don't have a way to quickly add up all the percentages, and until somebody shows up here with a neatly formatted table, just use a few general rules of thumb:
-Always bet the maximum on a race with favorites at 2/1 and 3/1 or higher in it.
-Simply skip all races with two favorites at EVENS in it, and at EVENS and 2/1. Or bet the minimum, if you can't skip or refresh the field.
-To decide if you should play races with other favorite combinations EVENS and 3/1, EVENS and 4/1, EVENS and 5/1, or two favorites at 2/1, the payouts on the other four runners determine whether or not it's profitable to play them. The results of betting on these fields vary from an expected 1,330 chip loss (worst-case) to an expected 1,680 chip win (best-case), with a max bet of 10,000 chips.
But if you're not looking for another strategy chart, you might just want to skip these borderline cases, and just cherry pick the best ones, which are easy to recognize, and with which you can never go wrong.
It's difficult to put a number on an expected win-rate, because it all depends on which fields you get presented with, but it's not unreasonable to state that you can maintain a steady win-rate of around 200,000 chips per hour, with about 50 seconds per race.
Remember, you're not trying to win every race. You're trying to win the most money per hour. So don't sweat it when you bet on a 4/1 favorite, and lose a couple of races in a row. It will still be more profitable in the long run. You have the math on your side.
To reduce negative variance, always bet on the favorite, when betting on profitable fields. We're not gambling anymore, we're grinding out a steady profit. We want to keep the swings to a minimum.
I contacted Rockstar support to verify if this is indeed how it works, but the only reply I got after 6 weeks is that they were "looking into it".
User u/Garsant made a useful Excel-worksheet, available for you to download, where you can quickly type in the payouts on the horses, to see if it produces a profitable bet or not. You can find it in his post here: https://www.reddit.com/gtaonline/comments/ekp8na/gta_online_inside_track_odd_calculato
1) Wheel of Fortune
The number one profitable casino game in GTA Online is obviously the Wheel of Fortune, because it costs you nothing to play.
Unfortunately, you only get one free spin per day, but it holds great value, so make sure you do it.
With a chance to win a super car, vehicle discounts, expensive mystery prizes (which also can be vehicles), and a lot of cash and chips, the expected return on a single spin is around $100,000 in value.
So don't forget your daily spin, it's definitely worth your time.
2020 Update:
As of the Diamond Casino Heist update, the Inside Track horse racing is confirmed to still be as profitable as outlined above.The only thing that seems to be changed, is that you can't refresh the field anymore by backing out of the screen. This does affect your hourly rate in a negative way, but does not change the fact that this game has a huge positive expected return, and should be your go-to when you're trying to take money from the house, without having Lester's nagging voice in your ear. That should also be worth something.
And with that, I conclude my 5,000 word essay on gambling in GTA. Questions, comments, feel free to add your input to this guide.
Cliffs:
-Gambling games should only be played for fun, not for big money. You should expect to lose in the long run. The house always wins.
-A casino game doesn't have a memory, and betting systems don't work.
-Set your limits before you start, how much you are willing to lose or win, and then walk away when you get there.
-Don't play slots, roulette, or three card poker.
-Only play blackjack following a basic strategy chart (https://prnt.sc/olct6g).
-Inside Track betting can be played profitably, if you only bet on fields WITHOUT a heavy favorite.
-Wheel of Fortune is always your best bet, because it's a free bet.

So what exactly is a day in the French Riviera like during the COVID-19 pandemic?

Scythe and Wager - Chapter 5

Previously
Death decides that the remainder of the flight is not an appropriate time for lengthy stories, no matter how much I disagree with that. Actually, he decides that the remainder of the flight is a good time to not speak a single word. Just stare out the window at the clouds, because clearly clouds are more interesting than that story. From the fragments of the night this mess started, I think I liked Death more when he was drunk. Who wouldn’t?
No amount of prodding will bring Death out of his funk, so Alexandria and I give up. She won’t share the story either. I tried asking.
All that means I am dejected by the time we land in Nice. I remain dejected, but only for a minute, since…well, it’s Nice. It’s a nice Nice. Bet no one’s ever made that joke. I’ve never been before, I’ve been overseas once and I remember as much of that trip as I do of the night with Death. When I made that trip I definitely wasn’t showing up in a private plane, on a private runway, with Death and The Loremaster. Still seems like a bit of a dream.
“Whoa.” Is what I manage, because I am quick witted. Ahead of us, on our private runway, is a helicopter. I don’t know if I can call it a chopper, but I really want to. I don’t know the etiquette rules on chopper names. It’s a gleaming black, like it’s been polished by hand for days before this. Gold cursive script on the side reads ‘Casino de Monte-Carlo’ and it looks very expensive. We’re flying in style today.
“Seems Chance knew we were coming.” Death delivers that with exactly zero percent enthusiasm. I think he might have actually gone into negative enthusiasm, if that’s possible.
“Isn’t that a good thing? Seems inclined to help us if he’s sending that.” I say.
“Not necessarily, Chance has a bit of a theatrical streak. He might receive us like royalty only to tell us to fuck ourselves.” Alexandria looks at Death’s back, since he is angrily walking ahead of us, then to me, then at Death. “Really, explains a lot about how they ended up together.”
We share a laugh at Death’s expense, who gives us a soon to be patented Death Stare. Our hosts, or our hosts proxies, welcome us into the luxury helicopter with it’s rich leather seats and champagne on ice.
“Traveling in style!” I say, settling into one of the seats and snatching the champagne bottle out of the ice bucket and readying to pop it.
“OK, first, what if you spill it. And second, what if it’s poisoned?” I shrug at the second and choose to ignore the first. It’s smarter that way. I am vindicated when it does not explode everywhere and I pour a flawless glass of champagne. Alexandria sighs and takes a glass when I offer, but Death ignores his. He chooses to sulkily stare out the window. Since I already poured one for him, I am the lucky winner here.
“Doesn’t really answer the poison question. I think vomit and blood is harder to clean than some spilled champagne.”
“Grump.” I observe of Death, sipping from the glass while the pilot eases our helicopter into the air and towards our destination. “If it’s poisoned, what’s gonna happen to me? I’ll die, I’ll wake up, that’s how things work now. You’ll be happy, I’ll still be alive, Chance will have had his fun. No harm, little foul.”
“Hard to believe, a mortal suggesting dying is a ‘little foul’. What a brave new world we have ruined.”
“How did we ruin a new world? Wouldn’t we have ruined the old one and created a brave new world?” I say, sipping the champagne. Blood does not immediately start pouring from my mouth or eyes, I don’t choke and gasp for air, all is well. Death does not approve of me ruining his joke and I think he might just be at the limit of his ability to put up with my shit. I would like to be alive for this flight so I decide to change course, be slightly more tactful.
“So, what if this Chance guy can’t help us?” I ask.
“If anyone has answers about a deal like this, it’ll be Chance.” Alexandria doesn’t really answer the question. Probably because the answer is terrible.
“If he decides to help us, looking down from his lofty tower on us worthless slugs. Don’t fill the kid with false hope. It’s as likely Chance will sell us out to Time and we’ll end up in the same place we’re probably bound for anyway.”
“Shit.” I say, after a long silence. “I think I liked you better when you weren’t talking.”
“The feeling is mutual.”
“I should have never opened my door.” I say, ignoring the obvious fact that my problems started before Death knocked on my door. Alexandria drains her glass, holding it out for another. I just hand her one of mine, not really feeling celebratory.
“What are the odds that any or all of you would kindly shut up and let me fly?” Our pilot intrudes on the private conversation, looking back with the reflective lens of his cool-guy aviator glasses. He grins, ear to ear. It’s a cocky grin with perfect white teeth. Death audibly groans, letting his head hit the window just a little too hard.
“Aww, that’s no way to say hello, is it?” The pilot says, pouting. He recovers from the sting quickly and shoots another one of those grins at Alexandria.
“Loremaster, or have they updated that to Wisdom Guardian or Head Librarian since I’ve been gone.”
“Chance. Always a pleasure to see you.”
“Oh I’d put money on the sincerity of that.” He says with a wink, turning his attention to me. “The infamous mortal who cheated Death, quite literally. Or figuratively. I can never remember. You don’t look so impressive to me. Figured you’d be…taller.”
“I…I don’t know what to say? Should I be offended? And I’m sitting. So ”
“Dealer’s choice.”
“Should have known this would happen. You just can’t avoid being involved in everything, can you? That’s why you got exiled, that’s why…that’s why things turned out this way. You prick.” Death says, forehead still pressed to the window.
“Indeed you should have.” Chance turns back to the controls, guiding the helicopter past what I assume was our destination. “But, you didn’t. Never were much for seeing the obvious, were you? Same as your new friend here. Odds would have been on our Loremaster here to figure it out but she needs it to be in a book. It’s never happened before so why would it be recorded?”
“What’s he talking about?” I ask. Death has lifted his head and is staring at Chance, or rather the back of Chance’s head. Alexandria seems frozen in place.
“He knows, he knows how to fix this.”
“He sure does, though he’s not a big fan of being called ‘he’ instead of his name.” Chance says. “I’m going to overlook the comments about me being a prick that sits on his ivory tower, looking down on the slugs, poisoning perfectly good champagne. I’ll help, even if you have this horrible image of me.”
I sit, waiting, staring. He guides the helicopter and doesn’t offer anything else.
“Are you going to explain it?” I ask.
“Explain what?”
I try not to scream. Death gives me a ‘see?’ look. So I don’t scream, I grit my teeth and try to be courteous.
“How. Do. We. Fix. This.”
“Oh, that! It’s simple. The problem is you’ve been talking to people who think far too grandiose, far too complex for us lessers. They’re trying to chase down the big leads, like some TV show, you know? It’s silly, really. I don’t blame them though. Imagine! You’re Death, the Death. Can you imagine having an infinitive in front of your name?! Gosh, that would make even the most humble of us into a bit of a puffed up dick, no? And the Loremaster, well no offense to her, but she’s buried in books. She is smarter than all of us could ever imagine to be, more knowledgeable, but still she doesn’t quite get it. She thinks there’s a counter deal to be made. The Council? Those stuck up pricks wouldn’t stoop to our level of thought, too busy being above it all. Except Time, he probably knows the answer but he’s so sadistic.”
“Chance.” Death says the word very quietly, I can see the muscles working in his jaw. “Would you kindly just tell us.”
“Tell you what?”
“Chance…”
“Alright, alright. You’re such sticks in the proverbial mud. Or is it proverbial sticks? Or neither?”
“Chance!”
“How did you get into this mess?” Chance asks, looking back and suddenly seeming very serious. Though also enjoying himself thoroughly.
“Drinking contest.” He waves that answer off.
“No, no, no. Not that how, the real how.”
I don’t understand. I sit there, looking between Alexandria and Death. They both seem as confused as I do. Then Alexandria’s face lights up, she’s got it. I feel a little slow.
“Saving lives.” She says. And I see it, I see it written on her face. She knows the answer now. She gets it. I still don’t.
“So…if you got into this by saving lives then you can undo it by…”
Oh. Oh! Oh.
“Taking lives.” I say.
“Aha! He’s got it. Goodness, you couldn’t have picked a slower mortal. I bet almost anyone else would have had it figured right out of the gate.” Chances says. Death is staring out the window and looks at me, then at Chance.
“We’re not going to your casino, are we?” He asks Chance.
“No, Death dearest. We’re certainly not. See, little confused mortal, you are not capable of taking lives. It’s like time travel, full of paradox and shit. Maybe, I don’t know. I’m not an expert. But, you saved all the lives of the ants because your gift is the most random one, you receive life for saving it. If you’d been a monster maybe we would know if taking lives before all this would have caused a loss. A mystery we’ll never answer now. You can’t take a life now because you’ve saved them all, it’s like purgatory on Earth now. None of us can kill them because you took on the cost. If we killed you seven hundred million times maybe it would revert and we could but that’s a pretty horrid way to go about this, no?”
“Agreed.” I say, trying to process his jabbering. All I hear was that killing me a lot was horrid, and I do agree.
“Well, little mortal, did you ever wonder where we come from?” Chance asks.
“What the hell does that have to do with anything?” Death shouts. Chance holds up a hand.
“It matters, just bear with me. We are so old that we cannot remember anything before. But, the world changes, no? It adapts and so must the gods. New gods, old gods, it hardly matters. Concepts as life forms. Every so often there comes a time for a new “god” to be born, as it were. Created out of a need when the world reaches a point of said need. Death, Time, Life, they’re as old as you mortals yourselves. They have to be, they are among the first. Wisdom, Knowledge, closely related yet so different, they came later. Though it’s been so long they would hardly remember that.”
“Are you getting to a point?” I ask.
“He is.” Alexandria says. “Slowly, but he is. We exist because we need to. But we came from somewhere. If you could follow the string of time back to the beginning, you might find us as mortals. As humans. Granted our powers.”
“What does that have to do with me?” My frustration is building to a breaking point but there is something else. Fear, a knot in the pit of my stomach that understands where this is going. It just doesn’t want to accept it.
“You were meant to wager with Death, you were meant to win, this was all meant to happen. Fate has her hands in this, whether she knows it or not. To fix this you must take lives that you cannot take. But how? How can a mortal do the impossible? How can a mortal cheat Life and Death? Unless…”
“Unless that mortal wasn’t a mortal.” I say. I feel like someone’s punched me in the chest, hard. I shouldn’t have opened my door. I feel hands on mine, one on each side. Alexandria and Death both seem sincere in the pity on their faces. It’s hardly comforting.
“He understands! It can be taught!” Chance says, guiding us towards a small private airport.
“So what happens now?”
“Now? We have our heading, we just need a ship. Personally I hate sailing, so let’s take that instead.”
“It’s a plane. We had a plane.” Death observes, dryly.
“Not this one. I didn’t trust yours.”
He lands the helicopter and turns around, smiling that winning smile.
“Come mortal, you’re about to become something you could have only dreamed of. If you had some seriously messed up dreams. You’re going to become a god. Or you’re going to die painfully.”
“Wait, what?” I ask, only catching that last mumbled bit at the last second as we exit the helicopter. Chance holds out a coin and with a ping flicks it up into the air with a fingernail, expertly. “While it’s up, it’s heads and tails, it’s whatever you want it to be. Until-” he catches it in a clenched fist. “It’s not.”
“So what, I’m Schrödinger’s idiot?”
Chance laughs.
“That you are. Until you’re not.”
Death and Alexandria walk up next to us, the waiting plane ready to carry us wherever we are to go next. This nightmare, or dream, whatever it might be, continues elsewhere.
“Where are we going?
“You ask weird questions, you know that?” Death says. “You get told the way to fix every person in the world and their inability to die but all you want to know is where we’re going. You are either handling all of this very well or just terribly.”
“You guys are all assholes. Did you know that?” I say. “Where are we going and-” I make a point of looking at Death. “What exactly is going to happen to me there?”
“Already told you the what, keep up mortal.” Chance says, tutting at me. I glare at Death who actually, honestly laughs. Jerk. “But we’re going back to the cradle.”
“You all speak in riddles, it’s annoying.”
“Just you wait, one day you’ll be just like us.” Alexandria says, hand on my shoulder. “Just as annoying as the rest of us.”
“He already is.” Death says, chuckling more to himself. At least his mood has improved. We board another plane and I find this annoying, why can’t anything ever be simple? I don’t have endless time to figure this out.
“What’s the cradle?”
“What else would it be?” Chance says, flipping his coin at me. It’s ancient, clearly. It should probably be in a museum. “It’s where it all began.”

F1 2019: A fanfic

Literary Destiny: Primary Weapons!

Hey all, 30,000 words later, I've finished the rough draft of my thesis, so I get to reward myself with this!
It is an attempt to catch all the literary references in Destiny's flavor texts–I did armor last week, you can find that post here!
Obviously, since I'm not a writer in Destiny, nor do I know any of the writers, this will not 100% complete–but I read a lot, so maybe it'll be close!
Without more ado about nothing, here's the primary weapons! They're organized by class, and then roughly in descending order of rarity.

Auto Rifles

Fabian Strategy: Wait for enemy to make a mistake. Die. Stand by for Ghost Resurrection. Repeat as necessary.
Interestingly, despite its name being the an actual military strategy, the use of Fabian Strategy really doesn't seem in line with that strategy. The actual strategy is one of attrition, guerrilla warfare, and light skirmishes, as opposed to the frontline fighting the gun espouses. The strategy itself was named after Quintus Fabius Maximus Verrucosus Cunctator (can't make this stuff up), a Roman dictator who pioneered it against Hannibal, a legendary Carthaginian commander. Fun fact, his cognomen–or honorary last name–Verrucosus, means 'warty', a reference to a wart on his upper lip.
((GENESIS CHAIN~)): ~if(input(SIVA)) // echo Shirazi // output(death) // ask(not in vain)~
I think this is a reference to James 4:3:

³You ask and do not receive, because you ask wrongly, in order to spend what you get on your pleasures.

New Revised Standard Version. 'Ask not in vain', as it were. I'm not 100% about this one simply because it's not a great fit, but 'ask not in vain' is a pretty iconic phrase.
Monte Carlo: There will always be paths to tread and methods to try. Roll with it.
Uhh, so this is a reference to the Monte Carlo method, which, according to Wikipedia, is, "a broad class of computational algorithms that rely on repeated random sampling to obtain numerical results." If someone with relevant expertise could explain this better, I'll edit it in, but for now, I'll take a whack at it: as a part of risk analysis, Monte Carlo methods allow you to simulate a large number of possible outcomes, so you can better make decisions under uncertainty. Of course, it is also a reference to the Monte Carlo principality in Monaco, particularly its opera-house-cum-casino, from which the RNG of the Monte Carlo method takes its name.
Abyss Defiant: We will not go quietly.
A reference to Welsh poet Dylan Thomas' "Do not go gentle into that good night", all of which is fabulous, but I will quote just a short stanza here:

Do not go gentle into that good night, Old age should burn and rave at close of day; Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

As Guardians, we're pretty conditioned against the 'dying of the light', so this one definitely feels like a good fit.
Arminius-D: Unleash a torrent on your enemies with the Häkke Arminius-D.
The name is of Arminus (german, Hermann), a legendary German commander who lived in both the BCE and CE, and gave the Romans their greatest defeat at the Battle of Teutonberg, in 9CE. Arguably one of the most important battles in history, it likely stopped Roman advancement past the Rhine permanently–which is likely the "torrent" referenced in the flavor text.
Zarinaea-D: You provide the will, and the Häkke Zarinaea-D provides the way.
A Sacae woman, who also fought in battles. Wife of the Parthian (ayyyyy, see pulse rifles, below) King Marmares. Her story is related in Ctesias' history of the Persian empire, Persica.
Paleocontact JPK-43: An auto rifle, modified by Dead Orbit's superb technicians and specialists.
Paleocontact is the idea that aliens rendezvoused with early humans and influenced civilization. It is generally considered a pseudo-historic theory at best, and falls under "Ancient astronauts". No idea about the "JPK-43" part, unfortunately.
Questing Beast: You'll never catch it. But that's not the point.
A reference to Arthurian legend, the Questing Beast is a vicious monster, and a, "... subject of quests undertaken by famous knights such as King Pellinore, Sir Palamedes, and Sir Percival". Its description was quite ferocious:

The strange creature has the head and neck of a snake, the body of a leopard, the haunches of a lion, and the feet of a hart.^[1] Its name comes from the great noise that it emits from its belly, a barking like "thirty couple hounds questing". 'Glatisant' is related to the French word glapissant, 'yelping' or 'barking', especially of small dogs or foxes.

More contemporary incarnations can be found in The Magicians series by Lev Grossman, and possibly South Park? Unsurprisingly, it also makes an appearance in the Merlin TV series. Thanks to Phoenity1 for pointing that one out!
Zero-Day Dilemma: There's no defense against it.
A reference to zero-day vulnerabilities, which are computer vulnerabilities found and exploited before the developers can come up with a solution or workaround–thus the 'zero-day' moniker.
For The People: I stand against the state of nature.
A reference to Thomas Hobbes' "natural condition of mankind", from Leviathan. A 'state of nature' was the theoretical idea of man's existence before society. A really interesting exploration of that idea is Ḥayy ibn Yaqẓān, a philosophical work by Ibn Tufail–Arabic, أبو بكر محمد بن عبد الملك بن محمد بن طفيل القيسي الأندلسي– which tells the story of a young man raised entirely in nature by animals, who only comes into contact with society later on in his life.
Izudabar-D: Millenia will pass, and still your name will ring out.
"Izdubar" was the initial translation of the name Gilgamesh, who of course is the protagonist of the Epic of Gilgamesh a fabulous (and surprisingly short!) ancient Mesopotamian epic poem, which is considered the first example of the genre.
Bronzed Miyamoto-D: An aggressive Häkke auto rifle, earned through glory in the Crucible.
A reference to the later-era (1600s) Japanese swordsman and strategist, Miyamoto Musashi–Japanese, 宮本武蔵–and likely not the co-founder of Nintendo! In his later years, he wrote The Book of Five Rings, a treatise on strategy, tactics and philosophy.
Galahad-E: This extraordinary multirole rifle boasts a smartmatter frame, the key to remarkable capabilities.
More Arthurian legend! Sir Galahad is the illegitimate son of Lancelot and Elaine of Corbenic, ironically renowned for his purity and gallantry. He appeared quite late in the Medieval Arthurian legends, but became much more common in the later narratives, like Le Morte d'Arthur. Ultimately, he is considered to be the only night of Arthur's table worthy to see the Holy Grail and ascend to Heaven.
Shingen-E: The exemplary Shingen-E is built to pop skulls.
One of my old favorites (still sad I sharded it, though :( alas for small vaults), it likely references another 16^th century feudal Japanese lord, Takeda Shingen–Japanese, 武田信玄. A commander of "exceptional military prestige" during the Sengoku period, his alleged death by sniper was depicted by Kurosawa in the movie Kagemusha. It will be the 444th anniversary of his death on May 13th!
Longespée-A: When all around you is chaos, the dependable Longespée-A won't fail you.
A reference to William Longespée (literally, 'long sword' ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)), 3^rd Earl of Salisbury. Renowned for being friggin' huge and having a friggin' huge sword. Go figure. He died in 1226, and was buried in Salisbury Cathedral. Five hundred and fifty years later, his tomb was opened, and a well-preserved rat was found inside his skull. I guess you could say it was skulking around? He got ratted out, though!
SUROS TYR-14: Stable. Dependable. Rapid-fire. SUROS.
Reminding me of how much I hate Suros' flavor text style, I'm not 100% sure about this one, because most of the 'cheap' Suros weapons have three-letter acronyms at the end of their name, so this might be coincidence. But, Týr is an ancient Germanic/Norse god, either the son of Odin, by the Prose Edda, or Hymar, by the Poetic Edda. Associated with war and might. Had his hand bit off by Fenrir, and is therefore known also known as 'The Leavings of the Wolf' which is an honorific, rather than a dig at him. His name is also where we get 'Tuesday' (Týr's-day)!
Cydonia-AR3: The City can't rely on a steady supply of programmable matter, so the multirole AR3 uses it only sparingly.
A region of Mars, but also a surname of Athena. That region of Mars was also where we found 'the Face of Mars', a rock formation whose shadows made it look like a face. Pretty neat.

Pulse Rifles

Herja-D: Devastate your foes with the deadly precision of the Häkke Herja-D.
More from the Prose Edda! This is a Valkyrie (demigoddesses of war, they would ride into battles and pick the worthy dead to come with them to Valhalla) specifically named in one of the two Nafnaþulur lists. Etymologically, it is also related to the Old Norse herja and Old High German herjón, both of which mean 'destruction' or 'devastation'.
Apple of Discord: "For the Fairest."
Huge shout-out to G3vanB, I'll put their analysis here:

Eris, godess of strife, supposedly throws one:
An apple of discord is a reference to the Golden Apple of Discord (Greek: μῆλον τῆς Ἔριδος) which, according to Greek mythology, the goddess Eris (Gr. Ἔρις, "Strife") tossed in the midst of the feast of the gods at the wedding of Peleus and Thetis as a prize of beauty, thus sparking a vanity-fueled dispute among Hera, Athena, and Aphrodite that eventually led to the Trojan War.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_of_Discord
The Apple was inscribed with ΤΗΙ ΚΑΛΛΙΣΤΗΙ The translation is the Gun's flavour text.

Interesting to note the Goddess of Strife's name ...
Hawksaw: A northwesterly wind is blowing.
Perhaps one of the more well-known references to our dear Bard, this is from Hamlet, Act 2, Scene 2, Line 351:

HAMLET I am but mad north-north-west. When the wind is southerly, I know a hawk from a handsaw.

We're all mad, mad I tell you! Thanks to pocsaclypse for pointing that one out!
Parthian Shot: Who's got the last laugh now?
A military tactic turned literary term, a Parthian shot is an insult or retort delivered as the speaker was leaving. It eventually evolved into the much more well-known 'parting shot' in a delightful little bit of linguistic movement. It comes from a strategy developed by the Parthians, ancient Iranian peoples, where they would ride their horses away from the enemy while firing their bows at said enemy. Of course, it was also before the development of stirrups, so this was a technique that required a truly sublime mastery of equestrian skill. Imagine shooting a bow, while riding a horse, that you're only controlling with the muscles in your legs. Insane.
Smite of Merain (Adept): Barrel etching: "He parted them like a sea, which closed upon him again."
It's not exact, but any references to any parting of any seas are of course biblical in nature–Exodus, 14:21-15:19. Just taking the most similar quote I can find:

26 Then the LORD said to Moses, "Stretch out your hand over the sea, so that the water may come back upon the Egyptians, upon their chariots and chari- ot drivers."

14:26, NRSV. As usual, that particular act of God is followed with a great deal of praise.
The Messenger: From deep within the shadows it came—a messenger borne on black wings.
The personification of death often includes a pair of black wings. Crows and Ravens (and many other members of the Corvus family), often thought of as battlefield scavengers, are black. This feels like it should be a specific reference, but honestly it's more a trope than anything.
Hopscotch Pilgrim: It's a long road. Enjoy it.
In a seriously impressive bit of detective work, JohnnyFlack found that this is actually referencing:

Oh oh i found this while reading about the origins of hopscotch...
"In Cuba and in Puerto Rico it is called "La Peregrina" (meaning "Pilgrim Girl") and the squares represent the 9 rings the pilgrim traveler has to pass in order to reach Heaven from Purgatory according to Dante's Inferno."

Here's the Wikipedia article!
Moriaen-D: You are a child of many peoples, a protector of all cultures.
More Arthurian literature. This is a 13^th century romance, called Moriaen, whose story of the titular hero follows him as he first attempts to find his father, and meets with famous knights of the round table, like Lancelot and Gawain. Once his father Aglovale is found, they return to his mother and take back her rightful lands. He is Moorish after his mother, but obviously is also a part of the Arthurian tradition. Thus the 'child of many cultures'.
Lump Distribution: This nimble rifle's on-board tactical systems keep a scrupulous tally of combat stats.
Besides looking totally neat, the gun refers to a Lump-Sum Distribution, which is, "... the distribution or payment within a single tax year of a plan participant's entire balance from all of the employer's qualified plans of one kind (for example, pension, profit-sharing, or stock bonus plans)." Thanks for that, IRS.
Painted Apollo MSc: A highly accurate Nadir firearm, earned through glory in the Crucible.
Our first Nadir gun! Apollo is the Greek god of, among other things, music, poetry, art, oracles, archery, plague, medicine, sun, light and knowledge. Wicked important, very well known. Has a sister, Artemis.
Painted Neptune MSc: A high velocity Nadir firearm, earned through glory in the Crucible.
I'm sensing a naming trend, though perhaps not a consistent! Neptune is the Roman god of the sea and freshwater, and is the counterpart to the Greek Poseidon.
Hotspur-A: Piezopolymer paneling makes the Häkke Hotspur-A a balanced war machine.
Hey! This is interesting. The green Häkke weapons are named after English noblemen! This one is after Henry 'Hotspur' Percy. Led a bunch of rebellions against Henry IV and was eventually killed at the Battle of Shrewsbury by an arrow to the face. Get rekt kiddo. He also featured as a character in Shakespeare's Henry IV, part I.

Scout Rifles

Fate of All Fools: *"The wise man knows his fate. The fool merely finds it."
I orignally thought this was a reference to Matthew, but turns out it's not–check out the story below!
A really excellent explanation of this from Voroxpete, which makes much more sense:

The Fate of All Fools - This one is actually a reference to a videogame... Specifically, Marathon, the series that Bungie created back in 1994, and from which many, many elements of both Halo and Destiny are derived. Rather apropo, given that the weapon was originally gifted to a long time fan who was recovering from brain cancer.
The specific reference is to this scene from Marathon 2:

Tycho's ship has been destroyed. The crater where it annihilated itself on Lh'owon's inner moon is still glowing. There were no survivors. With a focused message laser I burned his epitaph into the surface near the crash site, in letters three hundred meters high: "Fatum Iustum Stultorum."

The speaker in that scene is Durandal, an incredibly powerful rampant AI (wow, gee, its almost like Bungie have some kind of fixation on powerful rogue AIs or something). Tycho is another very powerful AI, acting under the control of an alien empire and sent to destroy or capture Durandal.
The phrase in latin at the end is a little bit wonky (hiring experts to get your dead languages right wasn't exactly a thing in nineties video game design), but it's more or less agreed that the intended translation is something like "The just fate of the foolish"...
Or "The fate of all fools."

Cocytus SR4: The Omolon Cocytus SR4 will drown your enemy in a river of pain.
Thanks to scapulargolem for this:

The 'Cocytus' is referencing the black river surrounding Dis/Hades (The underworld) in Classical mythology. It's mentioned many times in Virgil's Aeneid book 6. It's flavour text reflects this.

Incidentally, in some versions of the tale, the ~~Cocytus~~ Styx was supposedly the river Achilles was submerged in to make him invulnerable. He was held by his ankle, thus making his ankle his only weak spot–his Achilles heel (thanks to thyrandomninja for that clarification!).
And some additional context from Owasippe_Ninja! Thanks!

Awesome. Also, in Dante's Inferno, Cocytus is the frozen lake of the Ninth circle of hell, encasing not only Lucifer himself, but those who betray a bond of trust with others like benefactors, countrymen, and family. The ice is formed by the tears of the Old Man of Crete, which are described as being frozen sorrow and pain, and the frozen winds blown up by the wings of Lucifer. The worst betrayers (who aren't being devoured in the three heads of Lucifer) are fully encased in the ice in a the region called Judecca, named supposedly for Judas Iscariot (although there's more to Judecca than just Judas, check out its use in medieval city planning and general attitudes of Italian Christians of the time to Jews). So seems to fit the flavor text of "drowning enemies in a river of pain."

Additional small bit from another stealthy person, thyrandomninja:

is not just a reference to a literal river, but the Cocytus is also the river of lamentation, or mournful woe. It not only drowns the enemy in front of you by shooting them, but their friends and family are drowned in mourning as well.

Tuonela SR4: Hell will freeze over before the Omolon Tuonela SR4 will fail you.
Ahahah funny joke, Bungo. In Finnish mythology, Tuonela is the equivalent of Hades. In Finnish Christianity, it is the word used for 'Hell' in translations of the Bible. In terms of a literary reference, though, Tuonela is featured in the Kalevela, a Finnish national epic. The protagonist (roughly speaking), Väinämöinen, travels there to seek the knowledge of the dead. It, uhh, went okay.
The Hero Formula: It's just so satisfying!
Okay, this is referencing one of two things: either Heron's formula, alternately spelled Hero's formula; or the Hero's journey, which, frankly, makes slightly more sense? The first is a mathematical formula that gives the area of a triangle by requiring no arbitrary choice of side as base or vertex as origin, where A=√(s-(s-a)(s-b)(s-c)). It's satisfying, I guess? Math isn't really my thing. The second refers to the 'monomyth' or the "common template of a broad category of tales that involve a hero who goes on an adventure, and in a decisive crisis wins a victory, and then comes home changed or transformed". The idea was originally put forward by ~~Jason~~ Joseph Campbell in his 1949 book on the subject, The Hero With a Thousand Faces.
Lethe Noblesse: Do not forget. Never forgive.
Many thanks to Johnny_Dirtbird for this one:

Good job. One other that I had in mind is the Queen's scout rifle, Lethe Noblesse. The flavor text is "Do not forget. Never forgive." From dictionary.com - Lethe is "a river in Hades whose water caused forgetfulness of the past in those who drank of it." Noblesse is a French word that means nobility. I know it from the phrase 'Noblesse Oblige' - nobility obligates. Putting the words together, my guess would be something like 'forgetfulness of nobility.'

High Road Soldier: The survival of civilization depends on our willingness to choose conscience over expedience.
Per S0rrowS0ng and JohnnyFlack, this is likely a reference to the common idiom (I mean, it bascially defines the concept in the flavor text) 'take the high road'. It could also be a winking reference to the chorus 'The Bonnie Bonnie Banks o' Loch Lomond':

O ye'll tak' the high road, and I'll tak' the low road, And I'll be in Scottland a'fore ye, But me and my true love will never meet again, On the bonnie, bonnie banks o' Loch Lomond.

Zero Point LOTP: This much fun should be outlawed.
thyrandomninja has a great and funny explanation:

I'll do what I can to explain. Every object has "energy levels", whether it be an electron, a molecule, a snooker ball, or a planet. The DIFFERENCE between these energy levels is imperceptible to us because we exist on the macroscopic scale (i.e. we're too big to see tiny differences), so to us it looks continuous. On the microscopic level (e.g. electrons, these energy levels are relatively larger, and much more noticeable, which is what ultimately leads to all the "weird shit" in quantum mechanics, that doesn't show up in real life scenarios). Energy states are usually categorised as n=1, n=2, etc, where n is the number of that energy level. (Electrons NATURALLY tend to operate in n=1 through ~20 [give or take whatever - CERN like to add a few thousand/million/whatever n's in their accelerators :P ] territory, whereas a person is always on n = several fucking million) Zero Point Energy is the energy of an object at n=1. There is no n=0 (for reasons i won't get into here), and therefore no such thing as "having no energy". There is always SOME amount of energy in any given object, and you cannot get rid of it (that "some amount" is negligible compared to things we see in our lives, but that's not the point).
Relating to Life Of The Party, this is probably saying there's no such thing as a dead party. There is always SOME fun to be had, no matter what - the very idea a "life of the party" person would embody.
Alternatively, it could be a jab at the "life of the party" philosophy, by saying that "yeah, there's some fun, but it's negligible, and i'm going to go home", meaning the description takes on a more sarcastic approach.

The Scholar: You can't pull an all-nighter when the sun never sets.
Not really 'literature', but too relevant not to include ;)
Also, per goldenboot76:

Everyone probably knows this already, but the other reasoning behind the Scholar scout rifle's flavour text is the fact that Mercury's orbital period and rotational period are one and the same. As such, half of Mercury is in eternal sunlight, and the other is in eternal darkness.
Hence, the "You can't pull an all-nighter when the sun never sets.".

Thanks for that!
Lampad SR4: Let your enemies know: death will be their only companion.
The Lampads, or Lampedes, were spirits of the underworld in greek mythology. They accompanied Hecate and generally went around doing spooky stuff.
Orphne SR4: If death is the Darkness's way, let our Light defy their desire.
Orphne was a specific nymph of the Greek underworld. Also an alternate translation of Caliga, the goddess of Darkness.
Painted Abbadon SR5: A single-fire Omolon firearm, earned through glory in the Crucible.
Sharing its name with the exotic machine gun, Abbadon is either a "place of destruction" or an Angel of Death. Either way, not pleasant.
Just a quick clarification from westen81, thanks!

Abbadon is most usually associated with the angel of destruction (not necessarily death)..

Painted Sorg SR5: A powerful Omolon firearm, earned through glory in the Crucible.
In a large number of Germanic and Germanic-derived languages, 'sorg' means 'sorrow' or 'grieving'.
Primed Díyú SR5: A long range Omolon firearm, earned through glory in the Crucible.
Following a clear pattern here, 'Diyu' is the Chinese conception of Hell.
Silvered Kín SR5: A highly accurate Omolon firearm, earned through glory in the Crucible.
A Turkic word, it means, simply, 'pain'.
Bronzed Yamaduta SR5: An accurized Omolon Scout Rifle, earned through glory in the Crucible.
The Yamatuda are messengers of Death in the Hindu tradition.
Thanatos SR5: Where Death follows, new life will grow. Where new life grows... Death will follow.
Thanatos is the Greek personification of Death. He is the twin brother of Hypnos, the God of Sleep. Referenced in the Illiad:

... then send Death to carry him away, and Sleep who is painless ...

The Iliad, 16.453-4. Richard Lattimore, translator.
Xibalba SR5: Tiled with picocircuitry, the Xibalba SR5 is fiendishly accurate and hungry to grow.
How many different conceptions of Hell can we find? This particular one refers to the Mayan realm of the dead. It shares its flavor text with the Acheron SR5. The Acheron is both a real river in Greece, but also another one of the five rivers of Hades. The Cocytus (discussed above) flows into it.
Naraka SR5: There will always be new hells to conquer.
hahah, no kidding about those 'new hells'. This specific hell is a particularly diverse amalgamate, finding its place in Hinduism, Jainism, Sikhism, and Buddhism. Modified to 'Neraka' in Indonesian and Malaysian, it also describes the Islamic concept of hell. Moreover, it also describes the servants and spirits of Hell when modified to 'Narakas'.
Garmr SR1: Death is hungry.
Garmr is a dog (or wolf) of the Underworld in Norse mythology. He is, "the blood-stained guardian of Hel's gate".
Shinigami SR1: Death comes for the City's foes. Let's not keep it waiting.
Shinigami–Japanese, 死神–are spirits or gods of death. They invite humans to death, and rule over the underworld. Fans of the anime Death Note will also remember their appearance in that series.

Hand Cannons

The Last Word: "Yours. Not mine." —Renegade Hunter Shin Malphur to Dredgen Yor
Many thanks to andreisse for this one!

I know it's based on a gun, and a speech... I'll try and find it.
The Last Word is likely based on a real-life counterpart called Revolver No. 5. It was a weapon devised in 1928 by Elmer Keith, a "firearms enthusiast" from Idaho renowned for his six-shot expertise. He wrote about this weapon in 1929, in an article titled "The Last Word".
http://destinydb.com/item/3164616405/the-last-word

Here's a link to a .pdf of the article.
Gaheris-D: Balanced and dependable, the Häkke Gaheris-D is a true warrior's weapon.
More Arthurian legends! Gaheris was the nephew of Arthur, and a knight of the round table. He is described as "... valiant, agile, handsome, reticent in speech, prone to excess when angered, and possessing a right arm longer than the left".
Judith-D: Headshots are strongly encouraged with the Häkke Judith-D.
So, there are a lot of things this could be, but most likely it is referencing Judith of Bethulia, an Israelite who beheaded the Assyrian general Holofernes. Headshots strongly encouraged, indeed! Incidentally, that poem is found in the same manuscript as Beowulf–the Nowell Codex.
Kumakatok HC4: When the Omolon Kumakatok HC4 comes knocking, even the Darkness locks its doors.
The kumakatok are three Philippine spirits, who walk from door to door, knocking and bringing bad omens. One is supposed to resemble a young woman, the other two old men–however, they obscure their faces with hoods. Seriously creepy.
The Devil You Know: Let's make a deal ...
A reference to the phrase, "Better the devil you know than the devil you don't", this is the only weapon I know of that actually completes the phrase in game. The Devil You Don't was widely acknowledged to be simply a worse version of TDYK, not only being an impact class lower, but also with worse base range. That's commitment to the joke right there.
Uffern HC4: Omolon's Uffern HC4 sentences the City's enemies to burn.
In what should be a surprise to nobody at this point, Uffern is the Celtic version of Hell. Unfortunately I can't source it beyond a three-word mention in the Wikipedia article on Hell.
A very helpful clarification by Rapstah–much appreciated!

"Uffern" is literally Welsh for "hell". "U" is a near-close central unrounded vowel, or even a short "i" sound in southern Welsh. The sound "f" is represented as "ff" in Welsh, so if you represent it as "yfern" it's clear that it's derived from Latin "infernus".
I wouldn't say it's the Celtic version of Hell, it's literally just what you would call the christian concept of Hell in Welsh.

Byronic Hero: Brood, baby, brood.
A type of anti-hero created and embodied by Lord Byron. Byronic Heroes are: "a man proud, moody, cynical, with defiance on his brow, and misery in his heart, a scorner of his kind, implacable in revenge, yet capable of deep and strong affection". Think Hamlet, with a touch of Han Solo.
Also possibly another more modern reference, per getedm8–thanks!

This may be a stretch, but with the Byronic Hero's flavor text, it could be a reference to Saturday Night Fever. More specifically, the song "Disco Inferno" where the main chorus sings "Burn, baby burn!"

Vortimer-D: Where you come from is not important. It's for what you do that you will be remembered.
Vortimer, or Saint Vortimer, was another English legend. He can be found in Geoffry of Monmouth's Historia Regum Britainniae–my copy of which I've misplaced, apologies–where he is a described as a Britonic king with a strong distaste for Saxons. Worked out well, he died though.
Rience-D: You will not suffer these invader kings to live.
Hey, wait, are you telling me Häkke named another one of their guns after an English legend?! Yes, yes I am: Rience was an English/Irish/Scottish/British king named in Arthurian legend. He is variously described as the king of North Wales, Ireland, and 'many Isles'. He had the habit of edging his robe with the beards of Kings he had conquered–by the time Arthur came along, he had eleven. Arthur's, of course, was to be the twelfth invader king that he would crush. Didn't work out so well. Gosh, I really hope that's not a predictor.
LOCK_ARETE: Her excellence lies in swiftness.
A confusing one, because arete-Greek, ἀρετή–is literally 'excellence', especially in regards to efficacy, but also in terms of bravery. Arete is also the wife of Alcinous of Scheria, described thus in the Odyssey:

... Alkínoös married her and hold her dear. No lady in the world, no other mistress of a man's household, is honored as our mistress is, and loved, by her own children, by Alkínoös, and by the people. When she walks the town they murmur and gaze, as though she were a goddess. No grace or wisdom fails in her; indeed just men quarrels come to her for equity ...

The Odyssey, 7.70-8. Robert Fitzgerald, translator.
It wasn't originally my plan for these to go in descending order of references, but hey, that worked out nicely!
As I said in the beginning, I'm sure I've missed some, so don't hesitate to point them out.
Thanks so much for reading, Guardians, I really appreciate it!

[FIGHT THREAD] Dmitry Bivol vs Trent Broadhurst, Jamie McDonnell vs Liborio Solis, Scott Quigg vs Oleg Yefimovych, Dereck Chisora vs Agit Kabayel + live round-by-round coverage

Ronaldo to AS Monaco rumor: the conclusion and confession

Dmitry Bivol	vs	Trent Broadhurst
11-0 (9 KOs)	RECORD	20-1 (12 KOs)
82%	KO %	57%
26	AGE	29
174.3 lbs	WEIGHT	175 lbs
6'0"	HEIGHT	?
?	REACH	?
orthodox	STANCE	orthodox
Saint Petersburg, Russia 🇷🇺	HOMETOWN	Slacks Creek, Queensland 🇦🇺
5-0 (3 KOs)	LAST 5	5-0 (2 KOs)
-4100	MONEYLINE	+2800

Jamie McDonnell	vs	Liborio Solis
29-2-1 (13 KOs)	RECORD	25-5-1 (11 KOs)
41%	KO %	35%
31	AGE	35
117.5 lbs	WEIGHT	117.5 lbs
5'10"	HEIGHT	5'4"
72"	REACH	69 1/2"
orthodox	STANCE	orthodox
Doncaster, Yorkshire 🇬🇧	HOMETOWN	Maracay, Venezuela 🇻🇪
5-0 (2 KOs)	LAST 5	3-2 (1 KO)
-275	MONEYLINE	+315

Scott Quigg	vs	Oleg Yefimovych
33-1-2 (24 KOs)	RECORD	29-2-1 (16 KOs)
29	AGE	36
125.8 lbs	WEIGHT	125.8 lbs
-1400	MONEYLINE	+1250

Dereck Chisora	vs	Agit Kabayel
27-7 (19 KOs)	RECORD	16-0 (12 KOs)
33	AGE	25
254.3 lbs	WEIGHT	237.3 lbs
-180	MONEYLINE	+180

From: http://www.asm-vizu.net/showthread.php?19068-Infos-provenant-du-cousin-de-la-belle-s%9Cur-du-voisin/page123
In the name of all three of us, i want to honestly apologize to everyone who's feelings are hurt, the majority of our story is true, but of course there are certain parts that you can call "alternative truth"...we did all of this on our own, nobody from the club told us to do it and nobody else influenced our decision, from the start we were aware that sooner or later we'll have to explain ourselves, no matter what happens before the end of August...would we do this all over again, yes we absolutey would, it sounds cold-blooded but at that point we thought it was the best solution and we still think that is was the right move...i will break down the whole story to the smallests details and i will explain what was the real truth and what was the "alternative truth", hopefully some of you will understand us, and for others who are most definitely insulting us while they are reading this, it's alright, we don't mind it at all, we knew the risk and we accept the responsibility...
There are so many private messages and too many replys in this topic, so i really can't answer you all, i'm writing this first without knowing what you asked or commented while i was gone, if this huge post doesn't provide answers for your questions that you might asked, feel free to ask me again, either here or through private messages...please, i know that there are plenty of questions about our family and hopefully you will understand that i won't provide you certain answers for various reasons, most things about our familly are true, especially about father, while both son's education is purposely misleading for the reasons that i won't get into...also, nobody from our family has permission to meet in person with people who aren't in their inner circles, we are heavily protected and everybody new must go through tough security check, it sounds super shady, but that's the case with most similair families who are in our position, safety is always our priority...we are best friends with Fedorychev and we have good relationship with Rybolovlev and Vasilyev, we are also very good with Prince Albert, so don't worry about us, we know what we are doing and our motivation was very clear, so please avoid questions about our family and concentrate only on the questions about our football club...
Did you ever watch some movie that's based on a true story, but while you're watching you notice that certain things are added for dramatic effect, well that's exactly what we did, we needed to hype the story so that it has stronger effect...Ronaldo is not a done deal, that was the biggest "alternative truth", but there are resonable chances that we can get him this summer, i'll start from the beginning and i'll explain you his case...he indeed reached out to Rybo with desire to join Monaco in the near future, that has happened few months ago, but the chances of that actually happening were slim at best, until the whole tax fraud case in Spain, after that he became more and more unhappy in Madrid and his agent started sending signals to us that we should keep all our options on the table if the deal can be done, but still nobody really believed that it's possible to get Ronaldo this summer...then, on July 10 there was conversation between Vadim and Perez about possible Mbappe's transfer to Real, during that talk Florentino suggested that maybe we can give them €50M along with Mbappe if he receives transfer request from Ronaldo, but he didn't promise anything...after that meeting, we took number 7 from Rony Lopes just in case if something concrete happens before the transfer window ends, also Tielemans will get number 10 once Mbappe leaves, while Ghezzal will take number 17, meanwhile he will wear number 12...this is the absolute truth, but it wasn't bombastic enough, so we had to add special effects, there are 50% chances of Ronaldo coming to Monaco before the transfer deadline, it's still much better than 0%, but it's far from a done deal...we took the risk and predicted ahead that the deal will be made, we are still very optimistic that everything will be exactly how is planned, of course it's a huge gamble, it's like going to casino and putting all your chips on color red, hoping that everything will end perfectly...in either scenario we would come clean, if transfer happened or not, we planned to explain our actions and to apologize to all Monaco fans, this wasn't about creating something that doesn't exist, it was just getting ahead of everybody and putting things in proper context, sooner or later we would explain everything, no matter the outcome...
Why we did this in the first place...we wanted to pressure Rybolovlev to buy Ronaldo, it sounds stupid doesn't it, but don't jump to conclusions, there is a method behind the madness, we are doing very similar stuff in the business world, so we just applied the same approach here...in most cases leaking about something while the work is still in progress behind the scenes doesn't lead to the positive outcome, but this case is much different and here we needed to give a little extra push...when i say we wanted to "pressure" Rybo, don't take the meaning of the word literally, we wanted to "use" our fans and create enough excitement and hype, so that all this negativity about everything that is happening disappears, and that our fans start spreading positive messages to our club in all forms online, both on message boards and on various social media platforms, we wanted to reverse their negative feelings into positive vibes, we wanted to redirect their attention from probable departures to possible arrivals...
Now, listen to this carefully...everything that we said about Rybo and Vadim is completely true, but we left out one thing in order to present that everything was always perfect, so let's get back to the summer of 2014 and Falcao's exit, that was the only time when our President started rethinking about his future with our football club...when some of our fans started demanding that club gives them back money that they spent for season tickets, because we lost both James and Falcao, without bringing anyone of significance to replace them, when people were basically laughing at arrival of unknown Bernardo Silva who played for Benfica B, that was the moment when Rybolovev took all of that very personally and he was incredibly disappointed at out fans reaction after everything he did in order to save our club from going down to third league...everything that has happened that summer was a result of Financial Fair Play, because once Rybo saw the punishment that City and PSG received, he knew that we will be hitted even harder next year if we don't start cleaning our books...Vadim did everything humanly possible to balance our books and to still keep all other players even though Moutinho and some other guys started receiving offers, that summer totally redefined our initial project, and as i said it before, if there wasn't FFP, then Rybo would invest three times more money during the first couple of seasons, just like Abramovich did when he took over Chelsea, but rules are much different today than they were 14 years ago...also, when some of our fans wrote "Mendes Mafia" and when they started talking all over the place how our Russians only came to the club for financial reasons, without any real sports ambitions, and that they will very soon sell everything that we have, fill their pockets with cash and quickly disappear, well both Rybo and Vadim took that to their heart and they couldn't believe how all of a sudden our fans are so spoiled and how come their memory is so short...we always had PR problem, that summer was also the time when our President's name was in various tabloids with bombastic headlines, so pretty much the whole world started believing that he lost half of his fortune overnight and that he and Prince had terrible relationship, and none of that was true, but even today pretty much all of football fans who don't follow Monaco closely think that those things were true...again, the only reason why he had to dramatically changed our project was FFP and nothing else, in the end we were successful during that transition, even though there was strict monitoring of our books by UEFA, Rybo couldn't pump more of his personal money because of the rules and we were basically limited in how much money we can offer to our own players, so other rich clubs were able to offer bigger salaries to our players and we had to sell them in order to clear our books as soon as possible...that summer was the only time when Rybolovev had doubts about continuing as our President and majority owner, and the main reason were our own fans who got used too quickly on overnight succeess after Ligue 2, that they couldn't accept anything less than being on the same level as PSG...
Let's fast-forward to this summer, because something very similar started happening when the transfer window opened, all of a sudden our fans forgot that we won title after 17 years and that we dethroned our rivals from Paris even though our budget seemed laughable compared to their that's backed by the whole foreign state...from the day that Silva was sold to City and until the day that we signed Ghezzal, there was so much negativity towards our club from our own fans all over the Internet, soon all of that quickly reached the highest levels and once again, Rybo started to take it personally, not as bad as three years ago, but bad enough that he started rethinking about going after Ronaldo seriously, because if our fans are acting like that, after we had the best season in the history of our club, then what's the point of breaking the bank for Ronaldo if nobody really appreciates everything that he and Vadim did for us, during good days and during less successful days, why going all-in and making big financial risk to get one of the best players in the history of football, if our fans will quickly turned their back if things become a little more challenging for whatever reason, the level of negativity was like we have fallen to Ligue 2 once again and there's no light at the end of the tunnel...instead of having more confidence in the people who saved us from misery, fans get caught in the moment and they take every single rumour so personally and literally like the world is ending tomorrow if we sell player A and buy player B, of course football is all about business and fans are all driven by their emotions, well people who run the club also have emotions and Russians have tendency to take things too personally if they feel that their work isn't appreciated enough, so every bad word that reaches Rybo and Vadim can have certain effect, and this summer there's almost nothing else than bad words about how we are handling transfer window and pretty much everybody forgot how much obstacles we had in the past and how much successful we were last season...people were bashing Silva and Lemar because they were unknown, but now they can't live without them, they were bashing Mendy because OM fans were making fun of us for signing someone who can't even walk correctly, but overnight he became fan favorite, pretty much majority of young players that came in the past were welcomed with over-the-top scepticism, but in a year or two they became untouchable in the eyes of our fans...so instead of having more faith in our scouting departement and in our coaching stuff, everybody wants only confirmed superstars and everything else is disaster in advance, so instead of giving a chance to new players to prove themselves, fans already know that Mboula has low football IQ, that Diakhaby is average at best, that Lopes isn't even for Ligue 2, that Ghezzal only played two good games in his life, both against Monaco, that Imbula should retire because he lost all his talent overnight, that Jorge is too soft for french league, that Kongolo better switch to basketball, that Carrillo should change career to became construction worker, that Sylla is more suited for 100m sprint than football pitch, and so on and on...
Spreading story ahead of time about possible transfer where Ronaldo ends up in Monaco was the only way to stop negativity, of course some people are always negative no matter what, but good number of fans are driven by current events and their mood goes up and down depending on current rumours, in one hour they can go through all stages of human emotions, so it was very important to deliver really big and powerful rumour that will immediately change their mood and hopefully keep them in more positive state no matter what else is circulating in the rumour mill..saying the real truth that we have solid chances to get Ronaldo, but that many factors are in play, simply isn't powerful enough, you could say that about any given player, we needed clear and defined message that Ronaldo is a done deal and that everything else are just small details to be solved...the reality is that Ronaldo indeed has desire to come and that Monaco will do everything in their power to make that transfer, also it's true that Mendes and Perez have verbal agreement that Ronaldo's real release clause is at least five times smaller than the number in the contract that serves only for marketing purposes, so Monaco is willing to talk and Real is willing to listen, chances of getting Ronaldo are 50%...numbers concerning his transfer and his future salary are fabricated, we came up ourselves with those calculations, it's true that Perez said to Vadim how Ronaldo is worth at least Mbappe and additional €50M, so we used common sense and knowing the price of Neymar's transfer and various sums demanded by Monaco for Mbappe, we thought that €230M is the right numbers, just like we thought that Ronaldo's salary has to be bigger than what he's getting now, plus it would be logical that he wants bigger number than what Messi or Neymar are earning, so we came up with more than €30M...also, Ronaldo wasn't in the Principality few nights ago, but he had meetings with Bernard Arnault during his summer break and we heard strong whispers about LVMH thinking to invest more than €200M in CR7 luxury brand for 49% of ownership stake, so when Bernard Arnault popped up in Monaco few days ago, it was perfect to mixed up real and alternative truths, even though we were perfectly aware that everybody will be suspicious how come nobody saw Ronaldo in Hotel De Paris, we wanted that strong dramatic effect...also, of course he didn't had any dinner, but he had multiple meetings with both Falcao and Jardim in the previous months on various locations, it was more friendly oriented, but they did exchanged few words about potentially being on the same team...everything that was said about friendship between Rybolovlev and Ronaldo is also absolutely true, just like everything that was said about Rybo and Mendes and their various business and personal ties, the desire to bring Ronaldo is stronger than ever, but with such a big transfer there are much more complications than casually presented by us how it's a done deal...his 007 presentation is of course nothing but big "alternative truth" and those things can't be arranged until the contract gets signed, but we added up for dramatic effect because people can easily picture Ronaldo in elegant suit entering Monte Carlo Casino, doing few James Bond things and then changing into red-and white uniform and getting presented to all our fans gathered around Place Du Casino, we knew that this details will also raise eyebrows when people read it, but Ronaldo already had numerous marketing campaigns where he was dressed like Agent 007 while promoting various luxury brands...
We knew that many people won't belive in our story, even in real truth that getting Ronaldo this summer is more achievable than people think, and that dose of scepticism was enough for us to go all-in and pump the story throught the roof, so even if they don't believe, it will raise some doubts inside them that it's so crazy it might actually be true...of course, we knew that there will be people who will believe in every single word and that they will be hurt if nothing happens or if our story gets uncovered ahead of time, so once again, in the name of all three of us, i'm deeply sorry if we caused you some harm, we were aware that stepping on people's feelings will come back to haunt us, so we fully accept any responsability for what we did, any harsh words or insults are totally understandable and hopefully in the end you will find the way to forgive us, as i said it before, we are all Monaco fans and everyone with red and white blood in their veins is part of one big Monaco family that will stand for their beloved club both during good and bad times...for others who never believed anything that we said, and who don't believe in what is written in this big post, we just want to tell you that no matter what you think about us and about our intention, and no matter what you say about us now and in the future, we won't hold it against you and we perfectly understand your animosity after everything we did, but we are offering you hand of friendship and hopefully you can also forgive us one day, because we all have one thing in common that keeps us awake during long nights and that puts us throught emotional rollercoaster every weekend, and that thing is called love for AS Monaco...
Our main goal of creating enough buzz for Ronaldo to Monaco rumours wasn't intended for journalists, we couldn't care less if they will pick up something or find out on their own that there is reasonable chance of that deal coming to fruition...we wanted to get our own fans excited so that every time our club posts something on social media, they get flouded with positive comments and with Ronaldo mentions, just like how fans negativity quickly reaches to Rybo and Vadim, the same applies for positivity, if there is enough buzz from our fans, then Rybo will get even more motivated to do everything possible and bring Ronaldo now when many things are playing in our advantage, we had to stop negative comments from our fans and all Ghezzal trash talk that was talking place when he signed, so that people can concentrate on Ronaldo and his possible arrival...our little story lasted four full days and we knew that we can't last more than a week because we left enough breadcrumbs behind while creating all of this, plus ever since day one there was much bigger interest than we expected and suddenly the story started circulating all over the place, so more and more people were determined to haunt us down and i'm glad it came from our own fans, rather than from journalists who where working their sources like crazy in order to find out is there any credibility to all of this...as i said, we know how wrong it was to play with other people's feelings, but we felt that is was the right move to make and we would do it all over again, we feel that only something so dramatic can change the overall conversation that's dominating this summer among our fans, which is mostly highly negative, so by risking to hurt some people along the way, we decided to carefully craft our story, using mostly true facts, but decorating it with spicy details and other bombastic stuff so that there is enough of buzz created...
This should be enough, hopefully i explained our motivation and you can see what in our story was true and what was added like special effects, everything that was said about Mbappe, Lemar, Fabinho and the reasons about selling our players was true, except that if we can't get Ronaldo, we will try our best to strengthen our team with other proven talent that becomes available on the market...everything about Mbappe's father was true and while club wanted to keep him after season ended, more and more teams where chasing him while proposing much bigger salary than what we were prepared to offer him, so very soon it became clear that he won't extend and that it's better to sell him now while his price is incredibly high, instead of risking of losing him for peanuts or some potential injury that would dramatically decrease his market value...when we created this story, we wanted to protect Mbappe and tell everyone how he's willing to stay one more year, but that club is determined to sell him, we did this knowing that otherwise our fans will start harassing him online, just like what is happening right now, his father should receive all the blame, while Kylian should get a pass...chances of going to Real are still sky high, while City and PSG are very unlikely options, our club will try everything to use him like the main tool for getting Ronaldo, but things are complicated and hopefully our fans can remain a little bit more patient in the next three weeks, please show more support to Rybo and Vadim, because they didn't came to make money, they are here only because of their true passion for Monaco and they are planning big things for the future, your positive energy and words of support on message boards and social media platforms will give them more reasons to make us all happy...there are plenty of journalists and insiders with their special "sources" that are in 90% of situations just false, either planted on purpose by some agent or by some club, or completely made up in order to sell more newspapers and to get more clicks on the Web...so don't take every word literally, wait until something really happens, wait until it becomes official, don't jump the gun and don't get caught up in the moment, re-evalute every information that you hear, things are not always black or white like they seem, this is all one big grey area and multiple sides have multiple interests to do or say something during transfer window that might be true or not...
All in all, hopefully you understand better the whole story and why we did this and what was our motivation, wait until the transfer deadline and after that we can all togheter see how everything was handled and what was the final result...i don't have time to read private messages now or to read your replys before this post was made, but please feel free to post your questions if you have them, either here or throught private messages, and when i come back tomorrow morning i'll give my best to provide you more answers...we feel good that we did this and we think that it was needed at that moment, people can belive us or not, they can insult us or not, but we are the least important thing, as long as our fans are showing enough respect for our beloved club, and especially for Rybo and Vadim, we are perfectly fine with taking all the blame if something doesn't go according to the plan...AS Monaco will never be on the same level as the biggest clubs in the world, looking at all things combined, both on and off the court, but it can be the sexiest club on the planet and with everything that our President has planned for the future, from new traning center to fixing Stade Lous II, there are so many reasons for all of you to stay optimistic, and no matter what happens until the end of this transer window, we will always be one big red and white family...

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