Dollars to doughnuts means something that is certain. The phrase dollars to doughnuts is an American idiom that originated in the middle 1800s and is still mostly seen in American English. The idea behind the shorthand phrase dollars to doughnuts is the sentiment that the speaker is so confident that he is right about something, he will put forth Origin. Dollars to doughnuts is one of several ‘dollars to …‘ phrases, like ‘dollars to buttons’ and ‘dollars to cobwebs’, which date from 1884 (in G. W. Peck’s Boss Book) and 1904 (in The Boston Herald) respectively. It is obviously an American phrase and so it is used as donuts rather than its actual notation doughnuts. In earlier days when a dollar was worth more than it is now and a doughnut cost considerably less as compared to it, someone who was reasonably sure that an 'Dollars to doughnuts' is a pseudo betting term, pseudo in that it didn't originate with actual betting involving doughnuts, but just as a pleasant-sounding alliterative phrase which indicated short odds - dollars are valuable but doughnuts aren't. The phrase parallels the earlier English betting expression 'a pound to a penny'. Dollars to doughnuts as an adjectival or adverbial phrase is first found in the late nineteenth century in America. The first explicit reference to betting is not found until the 1920s, in a story by “Ellery Queen”–“I’ll bet dollars to doughnuts Field played the stock market or the horses”–but betting is unquestionably the origin of the expression. bet dollars to doughnuts Etymology [ edit ] Possibly adapted from "bet dollars to buttons" and "bet dollars to dumplings" that appeared in the 1880s, meaning "to feel almost certain" because the dollars are bet against something nearly worthless and perhaps shaped like a zero. As to why “dollars to doughnuts,” beyond the alliterative qualities, it was essentially just a way to say you’d bet dollars to something mostly worthless, relative to the dollars, emphasizing how sure you are that you’re correct. This metaphoric term pits dollars against doughnuts as in a bet. {Colloquial; late 1800s} {Colloquial; late 1800s} The underlying idea is that you wouldn't bet something valuable (like dollars) against something very inexpensive (like doughnuts, which presumably were a dime a dozen—if that—at the time) unless you had a very high degree of confidence that you would win the bet. bet dollars to donuts (Verb) To suggest that something is very likely to be true or that one has a strong hunch about something. Related to the earlier 'bet dollars-to-buttons' and 'bet dollars-to-dumplings' that appeared in the 1880s, meaning 'almost certain' because the dollars are bet against something near worthless, and perhaps zero shaped. If the origin is late 1800s to early 1900s when a dollar was worth a lot and a donut might have cost a penny or a nickel, then the odds would be 100 to 1 or 20 to 1, either way a long shot or something almost certain not to win or happen. Assuming most bettors expect to be paid in dollars, then saying "Let's bet or I'll bet dollars to donuts" implies if I'm right (the winner) then I expect to
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